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Adam Koffler identifies 3 overvalued running backs that could bust in 2022 fantasy football. Where should you draft these NFL RBs if not at their current ADP?
I don't fade players, I fade average draft positions (ADPs). For one reason or another, whether it's past performance or injury history, some guys get drafted too high or too low.
In this article, we'll take a look at three overvalued fantasy football running backs that are potential busts in 2022. Now, that doesn't mean the wheels will completely fall off, but it does mean we should be avoiding them at cost for a variety of reasons.
Here are three overvalued running backs that could potentially bust (at ADP) in the 2022 season.
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Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
ADP: RB4, Overall 5
"Adam, you can't be serious calling Derrick Henry a potential bust." Well, that's exactly what I'm doing this season. With an ADP of RB4, Henry is likely to fall short of expectations.
For starters, he's one year older (28) and coming off a Jones fracture in his right foot. According to Dr. Edwin Porras, Henry's injury could be one of those rare cases where "mileage" is actually the main cause.
Right off the bat, before we even get into anything else, there are legitimate concerns about his age and workload.
Moreover, the Titans won 12 games a season ago. With A.J. Brown in the lineup, they went 11-2. With Brown out of the lineup, they went just 1-3. Maybe it's a coincidence, but likely it's more than that. Brown is one of the league's elite wide receivers. He helps open up the offense and alleviate all those stacked boxes.
Brown is now with the Philadelphia Eagles, and the wide receiver corps in Tennessee now consists of Robert Woods (30-year-old coming off an ACL tear), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and rookie Treylon Burks (who looks to be buried on the depth chart thus far).
It's going to be extremely hard to replace Brown, and the Sports Books tend to agree. Most books have the Titans projected to win nine games this season, with the juice on the under. This comes after winning 11 games in 2020 and 12 games in 2021. So how does this affect Derrick Henry you might ask? Take a look at his splits in wins and losses:
Because Henry isn't utilized much on obvious passing downs, his value comes from volume, and volume comes from playing with the lead and dominating your opponents. There could be much less of that from the Titans in 2022 as they prepare for life without A.J. Brown.
I'll leave you with one final thought on King Henry. Last season (metrics courtesy of PlayerProfiler), some of his efficiency metrics were way down. Here's how they stack up vs. 2020:
True yards per carry: 2021 - 4.0 (43rd), 2020 - 4.9 (4th)
Yards per touch: 2021 - 4.6 (31st), 2020 - 5.4 (18th)
Yards created per touch: 2021 - 2.46 (31st), 2020 - 2.83 (19th)
This is especially telling since Henry saw fewer men in the box in 2021 vs. 2020 (6.4 vs. 7.1). Draft Derrick Henry in the middle of the first round at your own risk this season.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
ADP: RB19, Overall 42
We know the talent is there with Antonio Gibson. Per PlayerProfiler, he's got a 99th percentile speed score and his best comparable is Joe Mixon. So then why are we fading Gibson after two straight top-15 fantasy football finishes?
Despite having Gibson (who stands at 6'0" and 228 lbs) on the roster, the Commanders prioritized another big bruising back in the 2022 NFL Draft. Alabama's Brian Robinson Jr. stands at 6'2" and 224 lbs and best compares to Gus Edwards. That sounds like a goal-line back if I've ever seen one.
In 2021, Gibson was fourth amongst all running backs with 52 red zone touches. With Robinson in town, expect that number to decrease in 2022. This would be bad for Gibson's fantasy value, as we want our running backs to see as much goal-line work and as many targets as humanly possible.
Speaking of targets, what about those? Will Gibson see his fair share of targets this season? Well, if we're reading the tea leaves, the answer is "probably not." When J.D. McKissic announced his intent to sign with the Buffalo Bills, Washington quickly swooped in and made him an offer he couldn't refuse.
It's clear to see just how much the Commanders value McKissic's ability in the passing game and in the two-minute drill. Again, we want our running backs to catch passes, and not having the third down and two-minute drill work puts a damper on that.
Last season, Gibson played 11 games with McKissic. In those games, he saw just 2.7 targets per game on a 53.5% snap share. Without McKissic, Gibson saw 4.4 targets per game on a 63.8% snap share.
As long as McKissic has the passing down role and Robinson is rotating in (especially around the goal-line), there are just too many ways for Gibson to fall short of expectations this season. On top of that, he's already losing the trust of the coaching staff in the preseason:
And it's getting even worse for Gibson in practice to open up the week:
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
ADP: RB27, Overall 69
Damien Harris rushed for 929 yards and 15 touchdowns in 15 games last season. He still didn't crack the top-17 on a points per game (PPG) basis in full PPR leagues. His 15 touchdowns on just 202 carries gave him a score every 13.5 carries. Take a look at how that touchdown rate stacks up against some of the league's best running backs:
This will not happen again. Not only should we expect regression in his touchdown rate, but also regression in his rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. In 2021, Harris tied for third-most rush attempts inside the 5-yard line with 14.
He tied with Joe Mixon, who had 90 more rush attempts on the season. Harris' backfield teammate, Rhamondre Stevenson, got just five rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. In all likelihood, Harris and Stevenson split the work down at the goal line in 2022.
Harris was never much of a pass-catching back. He's never had a target share over 4.5% and in the last two seasons, he's averaging just 1.1 targets per game. The only non-pass-catching running backs that have value are those that get a 55% or more snap share and most of the goal-line work.
Think guys like Henry (even though he's a fade at ADP), Nick Chubb, and Mixon. In 2021, Harris had just a 42.9% snap share and a 48.7% opportunity share, per PlayerProfiler. Meanwhile, Stevenson had a 33.2% snap share and a 38.9% opportunity share.
A rookie running back getting significant work for Bill Belichick is something we should pay attention to. In fact, Stevenson got more opportunities than Harris down the stretch last season:
Throughout training camp in 2022, we're hearing all sorts of reports about how Stevenson is mixing in with the ones and likely has a stranglehold on the ever-so-valuable third-down role.
If Stevenson ends up splitting first and second down duties with Harris and remains on the field on third downs, he's going to be the more valuable running back in New England when all is said and done.
So while Harris is overvalued at RB27, his teammate Stevenson is undervalued with an ADP of RB37. These ADPs should be flipped if we're being honest with each other, especially in PPR formats.
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