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Jamie's 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers to target in early fantasy baseball drafts. These hitters all have upside as value picks in the mid-to-later rounds.
The term 'sleeper' is thrown around this time of year. It is generally labeled to a player who seems to be going later in drafts than they should. There is usually no shortage of fantasy baseball sleepers in fantasy drafts. If they pan out as hoped, those players could help carry you to a fantasy championship.
Here, we're going to look at three players who can be labeled as sleepers. However, they will likely go earlier in drafts as the offseason progresses. If you're drafting early, it could present the best opportunity to get fantasy value from this trio.
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Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Buxton is the 'poster boy' for players with immense talent who can't stay healthy. In 2024, he played 102 games for the Twins. That was Buxton's most since 2017, when he played 140 games. You'll likely end up disappointed if you draft Buxton expecting to get more than 100 games from him.
But that has been factored into Buxton's current ADP (~246). Despite playing just 340 games over the last four seasons, Buxton's 82 homers rank joint 59th most in that time. Of the 58 players with more home runs since 2021, Buxton has played at least 79 games fewer than everyone else.
I'm not suggesting Buxton will stay healthy in 2025. Or be the top-20 player his output suggests he can be. Just to give an idea of what Buxton is capable of if he stays healthy, the table below shows his numbers extrapolated over 162 games for the last four seasons.
| Year | HR | RBI | R | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 | 50 | 85 | 133 | 24 | .306 | .358 | .647 |
| 2022 | 49 | 90 | 107 | 11 | .224 | .306 | .526 |
| 2023 | 32 | 80 | 93 | 17 | .207 | .294 | .438 |
| 2024 | 28 | 88 | 97 | 11 | .279 | .335 | .524 |
It wouldn't be unfair to suggest the injuries are taking their long-term toll on Buxton. His power has subsided a bit over the last two seasons. But a 30-homer hitter is nothing to be sniffed at. Even 20 home runs and solid ratios, after pick 220 in drafts, shouldn't be ignored.
If you manage to get 100 games from Buxton in 2025, you should be able to find a suitable replacement for his inevitable IL stint(s). Buxton and his replacement (especially in shallower leagues) should combine to provide numbers that would be worthy of a top-150 pick.
It's very much league-dependent and how your roster is constructed throughout the draft as to whether or not Buxton is worth taking. The one most likely thing we'll see with Buxton this offseason is him moving up in drafts.
At some point leading into Spring Training, we will undoubtedly get "best shape of his life" stories about a myriad of players. Stories about players changing their offseason routine to get healthier than ever. Buxton will be no exception for inclusion in such stories.
That will lead to more and more fantasy managers taking a chance on Buxton in drafts. A solid start to Spring Training will just add more helium to Buxton's ADP. If you were thinking of drafting him this year, you would probably see any potential value drained out of the pick as the weeks roll on.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Mountcastle's fantasy value has been declining in recent seasons. That's in part due to health and injury issues. But also due to a drop in power. Mountcastle hit 55 homers in 289 games between 2021 and 2022. Over the last two seasons, Mountcastle hit 31 homers in 239 games.
After missing nearly a month in 2023 due to vertigo, Mountcastle didn't miss any time last year with any such issues. It was a wrist sprain that sidelined him for four weeks towards the end of the season. That's not something we should see a repeat of or have lingering effects into 2025.
The declining power can be largely attributed to the Orioles changing their left field dimensions. Mountcastle hit 33 home runs in 2021 (144 games). In the first year of the new left field dimensions in 2022, Mountcastle hit 22 homers (145 games).
So when the Orioles announced they were bringing the left field wall in and lowering it for the 2025 season, it was good news for Mountcastle. The new dimensions aren't as hitter-friendly as they were in 2021, but it's still a marked improvement for right-handed hitters.
Another 30-homer season might be beyond Mountcastle. A healthy Mountcastle should have no problem hitting ~25 home runs in 2025. As someone who has an ADP of ~259 on NFBC right now, Mountcastle is not being drafted as a 25-homer player in one of the best offensive lineups.
The below graphic shows all of Mountcastle's doubles and outs at Oriole Park since 2022. If we focus on the left field area, we can see there were around 12 home runs that had been lost due to the changes to the left field wall.
The changes to the left field dimensions and wall for this year should encourage fantasy managers to draft Mountcastle. As more details come out this spring regarding the changes, confidence that Mountcastle can provide ~25 home runs will increase. That will see him move up in drafts.
The other concern when drafting most Orioles hitters is a potential logjam on the infield. With so many talented young bats, one or two players will miss out on playing time. While a trade is possible, Mountcastle still seems to be the Orioles' No. 1 choice at first base.
Providing Mountcastle avoids the IL; he will outperform his current ADP. If the Orioles do trade away a bat in the coming weeks, we should see Mountcastle's ADP go under 250. It wouldn't be a surprise if Mountcastle's ADP is nearer 220 by the time Opening Day arrives.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds slugger is currently going around pick 225 in early NFBC drafts. That's quite the drop for someone who entered 2024 with an average draft position (ADP) of ~135 in 2024. Being limited to 29 games due to injury last year was seemingly enough to see him pushed down in drafts.
While injuries can happen to anyone at any time, Encarnacion-Strand appears to be healthy heading into Spring. He featured in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), playing in eight games. He didn't homer, but Encarnacion-Strand hit a robust .385/.469/.462. Promising, albeit a very small sample.
Encarnacion-Strand was slightly hampered in the AFL by scar tissue from his hand surgery last year. But it didn't seem too big of a deal and didn't appear to impact Encarnacion-Strand much. The fact that Encarnacion-Strand also saw some time in the outfield during the AFL might be telling.
The Reds adding Gavin Lux to an already crowded infield will be another reason Encarnacion-Strand is being drafted where he is. Last year, the Reds went into the 2024 season with what appeared to be a crowded lineup. Injuries opened up plenty of at-bats for those who remained healthy.
It seems as though the Reds will explore using Matt McLain and/or Lux in the outfield. There will be more than enough playing time for Encarnacion-Strand if he can stay off the IL. Given what we saw from him pre-2024, Encarnacion-Strand can be an impactful fantasy option.
In 2022, Encarnacion-Strand hit 32 homers with a .304/.368/.587 slash line in 122 Minor League games. He then hit .331/.405/.637 with 20 home runs in 67 games at Triple-A before the Reds called him up. Encarnacion-Strand went on to hit .270/.328/.477 with 13 homers for the Reds (63 games).
The 63 games might not be the biggest sample, but his numbers were no fluke. Encarnacion-Strand's Statcast Profile in 2023 backs up his output and supports his Minor League numbers. That quality of contact should translate into prolonged success in the Majors.
Between the playing time concerns and the 2024 injury, fantasy managers have been reluctant to draft Encarnacion-Strand. Both concerns should fade as the offseason progresses. The Reds could trade away one of their hitters or move McLain and/or Lux to the outfield as anticipated.
When Spring Training begins, provided we don't receive any negative news about his hand, fantasy managers will be more confident that Encarnacion-Strand is healthy. We should see him move up draft boards, and Encarnacion-Strand could end up with an ADP in the 180-200 range.
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