RADIO
With four weeks of fantasy football and the month of September in the books, you might think you know which trends are real and which of your teams is destined for greatness. But there's still plenty of football to be played with all sorts of injuries, bye-week crunches, waiver heroes, and crazy circumstances to emerge. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for, especially early on. Each league values players differently so you must add the proper context, as context is king. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, with different categories of bids reflecting potential team-need situations.
Projected league appetite, total bench spots, and the overall depth of your league will determine your FAAB bids. By now you should have a decent idea of what FAAB runs in your league look like in terms of how many active teams and aggressors there are. With that in mind, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 5 with the Chargers, Eagles, Lions, and Titans on bye.
- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (QB, PIT) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-5%
One week after squeezing in his first rushing touchdown of the season, Fields put up a 10-55-2 line on the ground with 312 passing yards and another TD through the air. He’s a double-edged sword and made sloppy mistakes leading to negative plays/sacks but the upside is clear.
If Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylen Warren are limited/out in the coming weeks then there’s even more rushing equity on his plate. He now faces beatable Dallas and Las Vegas defenses in the next two weeks.
Justin Fields is 7th in total yards in the NFL for QBs and tied for 5th for total TD’s in the NFL for QBs and was one of the only 10 QBs in the NFL with an above 100+ passer rating in week 4.
All while having a conservative protect the ball game plan called for him all year. pic.twitter.com/JOgpbUjUYr
— Baku 🐧 (@Mazursky8895) September 30, 2024
Andy Dalton (QB, CAR) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Dalton posted another solid day in Week 4 against the Bengals, notching 220 yards and a pair of TDs with an interception on 25-of-40 passing. His completion rate took a hit without Adam Thielen with a few drops from the receivers, but overall it is promising.
Dalton and the Panthers face the Bears in Chicago next week but his seasonal outlook remains promising. This is basically a Joe Flacco-like elevation of the offense with a backup pocket QB who can sling it downfield.
Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE) - 22% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
You and I both hate it, but Watson draws a Commanders matchup that could force shootout conditions. Will Cleveland learn from Arizona’s mistakes in how to attack Washington and keep the drives going?
Jayden Daniels will be tested on the other side but looks incredible and could thrust this game into overdrive. Watson can look bad on the whole and lose the game but have a viable fantasy day for those facing byes.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 20-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-40%
Hunt quickly entered the game after an early Carson Steele fumble saw the incumbent benched, which led to 85 total yards on 16 touches for Hunt. The Chiefs’ offensive identity is in trouble with Rashee Rice (knee) potentially done for the year, but Hunt stabilizing the RB room with renewed health would help.
Kareem Hunt reached a peak speed of 15+ mph on 2 of his 14 rushes yesterday, per NGS.
Last year in Cleveland, he reached 15+ mph on just 4 of his 135 rushes, a league-low among qualified RBs.
He told us last week a sports hernia injury affected his production in '23.
— Sam McDowell (@SamMcDowell11) September 30, 2024
The team is of interest to us as long as Patrick Mahomes II is on the field. Now, they only have one game before a Week 6 bye (vs. NO) and could get Clyde Edwards-Helaire back in Week 5. Isiah Pacheco could also return for the fantasy playoff weeks, but Hunt looks like a nice add for Weeks 7 to 13 if we’re being optimistic.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Allgeier simply looked better than Bijan Robinson in Week 4 and Atlanta’s coaches didn’t ignore that. Robinson had 28 yards on seven carries while Allgeier ripped off 60 on eight totes, forcing four missed tackles while Bijan had none. The backup also caught two balls for 20 yards as Robinson still caught four for 46, with a long TD called back.
Overall, Robinson’s 4.07 yards per carry this year with heavy passing involvement is fine, though having only one TD and Allgeier once again earning notable reps was not in the plan. Allgeier is averaging a whopping 6.15 YPC over his first 27 carries and Raheem Morris remains flexible in rewarding the hot hand.
Toss in the fact that Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury and Atlanta’s 25.1 seconds-per-play rate is third fastest in the NFL (per FTN Data) and you’ve got a high ceiling here. Adjust accordingly with softer run defenses in Tampa Bay and Carolina coming up.
Tank Bigsby (RB, JAX) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Travis Etienne Jr. only had 12 touches while managing a shoulder injury suffered early in the game, with much of the first quarter spent on the sideline. This gave Bigsby a chance to assert himself with some early touches before a third-quarter surge for 58 yards that he nearly housed. He finished with 90 yards on seven carries.
You’ll recall he had 73 yards on 12 carries in Week 1, though he’s still without a reception on the season. Trevor Lawrence needs to find consistency for Jacksonville’s pieces to gain appeal but Bigsby looks deserving of more work. If Etienne’s shoulder injury devolves throughout the week then Bigsby’s chance could arise.
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Johnson entered Week 4 with promises of increased involvement and had an early TD that seemed like it could spark a league-winning effort. But then D’Andre Swift ran as if Weeks 1 to 3 had never happened, compiling a 16-93-1 rushing line with 7-72-0 receiving.
Johnson would end the 24-18 victory with seven carries for 26 yards and the score while Khalil Herbert logged zero touches. If Chicago narrows the touch tree to two then Johnson could carry flex value, but it won’t be comfortable unless Herbert is traded.
Alexander Mattison (RB, LV) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Mattison only had five touches in Week 4’s win over Cleveland, but he totaled 60 yards while Zamir White needed 17 carries to hit 50 yards. White also lost a fumble and now has 152 yards on 49 carries with just five catches for 16 yards through four games.
That is bad! Now, Mattison entered Sunday with 27 rushing yards on 12 carries so he wasn’t ripping off chunk plays either. But 87 on 17 carries sure looks better and he has 80 receiving yards on seven catches to go with three total TDs. It’s enough for Antonio Pierce to say Mattison has earned more work next week at Denver.
#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on Alexander Mattison:
“He’s deserved more reps. And he’ll get ‘em.”
Pierce has a 90% reliability rating on injury coachspeak, with a possible big strike looming for his Zamir White coachspeak pic.twitter.com/1gpbwWit2Y
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 1, 2024
Trey Sermon (RB, IND) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain that has been described as “mild” in Week 4, but any sprain is jeopardizing. And it’s his right ankle, which is the one that plagued him and eventually required clean-up surgery after the 2022 season.
Sermon only tallied eight yards on five carries in the win over Pittsburgh but did sneak in a touchdown the week before. He’d have plenty of opportunity in Week 5 against a soft Jacksonville defense if Taylor is out or limited.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 25-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-50%
Wicks exploded for 78 yards and two touchdowns on five catches in a Week 4 passing bonanza against the Vikings. Green Bay fell into an early hole and Christian Watson suffered a high-ankle sprain on an interception that could cost him a month, which created a perfect storm for Jordan Love to air it out.
The second-year WR could’ve had a bigger day but the greater point is that Wicks always seems to pop when given a significant workload. Green Bay faces generous secondaries/good gamescripts ahead of their Week 10 bye: LAR, ARI, HOU, JAX, and DET. Kudos to those who held while those who did not must prepare to pony up.
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks have combined for a 5.88% end zone targets per route rate.
That would lead all WRs. But heading into Sunday, they were splitting time (55.7% to 36.7% route shares).
This role is insanely valuable if consolidated into one player. https://t.co/uLzt988fvo
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 1, 2024
Xavier Legette (WR, CAR) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-25%
Catching 6-of-10 targets for 66 yards and a TD with two rushes for 10 more yards is quite the statement for any rookie in Week 4. Legette did let a couple of catchable targets go but overall looked far better than Jonathan Mingo with triple the number of first-read targets, per FPDS.
Legette’s potential with Andy Dalton on a team often trailing/needing points became apparent once Adam Thielen went down in Week 3. This led to Legette playing on roughly 75% of CAR’s offensive snaps to close the game. He ran a route on over 80% of dropbacks in Week 4 and could be a weekly flex factor with Dalton as Carolina’s defense remains horrid.
Legette (and Mingo) would take another step forward late if Carolina opts to move Diontae Johnson at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, this could also signal a shift back to Bryce Young’s development, which would tank all ceilings.
Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 21% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Downs was already slated for more work as his preseason ankle injury got further behind him but an early hip injury to Anthony Richardson forced Joe Flacco into the game and ramped up the passing. Downs would catch 8-of-9 targets for 82 yards and a TD on 23 routes run (21 from the slot), per FPDS.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Downs were the constants, with Adonai Mitchell going catchless on three targets and Alec Pierce netting nine yards on one catch (two looks). Both Downs and MPJ had a pair of end-zone targets and at least eight first-read targets apiece. It sounds like Richardson should be okay but the slot role for Downs appears comfortable.
This is a higher ceiling play based on talent but Richardson does diminish the median expectation unless this oblique issue limits his rushing and forces more passing.
Tre Tucker (WR, LV) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Tucker stepped up with Davante Adams (hamstring) missing Week 4, bringing in five of his six targets for 41 yards and taking a three-yard reverse end-around into the end zone. Jakobi Meyers was the No. 1 with 10 targets (5-49-0) while Brock Bowers disappointed for a second straight game (2-19-0, three targets).
The Raiders are not a good team and that gets intensified without Adams on the field. But at least they showed creativity scheming up the trick play for Tucker’s TD. Any Raider has a low floor at this point but Tucker offers potential starting volume without Adams.
Jordan Whittington (WR, LAR) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
A week after it appeared Whittington had tumbled behind Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Tyler Johnson in the pecking order, the rookie led the team with eight targets and 28 routes (per FPDS). It was Johnson who fell off, running just three routes all game.
There could be some musical chairs here but Whittington looked sharp, catching six balls for 62 yards on the day. That shouldn’t lead to any loss of work going into Week 5 at home against the Packers. Week 6 brings LAR’s bye and a potential Cooper Kupp return so don’t get attached here.
Ja'Lynn Polk (WR, NE) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
The Patriots' offense remains sad, but Polk is ramping up with promising stats behind the unassuming 3-30-0 line. Seven targets are great, but so are 102 air yards.
That’s over 60% of the team AY share! Trusting deep balls from Jacoby Brissett isn’t ideal but the utilization blueprint is promising in case Drake Maye pops in. And the conversation would have a different tint if this catch was ruled a catch!
Catch. https://t.co/3IIjsbgbUL
— Jalynn Polk (@jpolk_22) September 30, 2024
(And perhaps soon Kendrick Bourne will be back. He looks nearly 100% coming off of the ACL tear suffered in Week 8 of last season but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, KC) - 1% rostered
Justin Watson (WR, KC) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
The Chiefs lost Rashee Rice to a knee injury early in Week 4 (feared ACL but nothing confirmed) and then had just five completions to wide receivers the entire game. Three went to rookie Xavier Worthy and the other two went to Watson for 27 yards. The latter makes sporadic big plays but has never earned additional work.
Smith-Schuster had stepped into the Rice role the previous week and caught a TD on a crossing route but was shut out as the Chargers didn’t push the game. Expectations will be tempered here as KC should target a wideout via trade with Marquise Brown and Rice missing extended time. We shall see.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-13%
Desperation Bid: 13-16%
While Kraft did lose a fumble to a linebacker punchout, he outran Luke Musgrave with triple the targets for a 6-53-1 line plus a two-point conversion. Jordan Love is back in the driver’s seat and lifts the tide for all GB pass-catchers.
Through four games, Kraft has 87 routes and 15 targets to Musgrave with 37 routes and seven targets per Fantasy Points Data Suite. He also has three missed tackles forced while Musgrave has yet to post one. Musgrave won’t disappear but Kraft has weekly TE1 potential given the state of the 2024 TE class.
Tucker Kraft with Jordan Love (last 9 games):
6 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
2 REC, 37 YDS
3 REC, 9 YDS, 1 TD
2 REC, 15 YDS
3 REC, 31 YDS
6 REC, 48 YDS
4 REC, 60 YDS
4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
4 REC, 64 YDSThat's 34 REC, 374 YDS, 3 TD.
Works out to 8.0 PPG.
That would be TE5 this season.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 30, 2024
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) - 39% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-13%
Desperation Bid: 13-16%
DFS players know about Hill crushing the Falcons and all the versatile player did was add fuel to the trend in Week 4. He would leave with a rib injury but not before mixing in for a pair of TDs on six carries.
According to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Hill’s alignment read as thus: Two snaps at quarterback, three at halfback, three at fullback, once at tight end, five in the slot, and once out wide. Some of this may have been New Orleans preferring to guard Alvin Kamara, who is nursing a broken rib.
Monitor Hill’s injury status throughout the week here and consider adding Juwan Johnson if Hill is trending down as Week 5 against Kansas City approaches. The Chiefs notably let Isaiah Likely torch them in Week 1 before Mike Gesicki and Erick All Jr. combined for 123 yards in Week 2. Even Kyle Pitts had 59 yards against them in Week 3!
Cade Otton (TE, TB) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
Take it from a Bucs fan, you don’t want to watch Otton play. The upside is low and TD-dependent but in this timeline any TE getting back-to-back weeks with eight or more targets is on all our radars.
He has a poor 3.9 average depth of target and just under one yard per route run, but his 105 routes run place him in the top 5 of all TEs going into Monday night (per FPDS). Tyler Conklin and Colby Parkinson are also in that group. Ugly volume, but volume nonetheless.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. NYG) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
The Seahawks will have their 12th man behind them as they host Daniel Jones and the G-Men in Week 5. To his credit, Danny Dimes has only taken four sacks since a five-sack Week 1 but the Giants have still surrendered a turnover in all four games thus far. They also haven’t scored more than 21 points so the risk of a negative blowup is low, especially if Malik Nabers isn’t cleared from concussion protocol.
Denver Broncos Defense (vs. LV) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Denver just stood up to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in terrible northeast weather for an upset and will now host the Raiders, who may remain without Davante Adams (hamstring). Las Vegas has yielded multiple sacks in all four games this season and has question marks at QB, RB, and WR. Denver had seven sacks against Tampa in Week 3 before five sacks in Metlife so let’s keep that rolling.
Entering Week 5, the #Broncos defense ranks:
• 2nd in yards allowed per game
• 2nd in touchdowns allowed
• 2nd in sacks
• 3rd in points allowed per game
• 4th in passing yards allowed per game
• 4th in third-down percentage— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) September 30, 2024
New England Patriots Defense (vs. MIA) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
If you subjected yourself to watching the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa over the last couple of weeks then you know they’re an automatic streaming target. The Patriots host an offense without any semblance of coherence at the moment. If Rhamondre Stevenson and the offense can do enough to put Miami behind the eight ball then the defense could pin their ears back and feast.
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