Winners from the 2022-23 NBA Free Agency - Guards (Part 1): Jalen Brunson, John Wall, Ricky Rubio

July 9, 2022

NBA players at PG/SG who changed teams this offseason and should have a good 2022-23 season (Part 1). These players could be fantasy basketball draft sleepers.

Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential. But it can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.

This article is about the former, and while it's only been hours since the market officially opened, we're here to analyze some of the deals that have been confirmed in advance of the 2022-23 season tipoff later this fall.

Let's take a look at some players who changed teams who should find their stock rising up this season.

Fantasy Basketball: Winners from 2022-23 Free Agency - Guards

Jalen Brunson, PG - New York Knicks

The most talked-about and widely known-in-advance transaction of the season came to be a reality one hour before the actual opening of the free agency on July 1. Brunson is leaving Dallas to join the Knicks and a completely different situation from that he experienced in Texas. Brunson can be considered a winner even though he's leaving Luka Donic's team and changing it for... RJ Barrett's? Julius Randle's? That takes a little bit of braveness if you ask me.

Brunson is now a bona fide season-long PG1 in New York and the main playmaker on his team. He'll be the one (we assume) calling the shots over Randle and his wonky setups from last year. Depending on how you rate Barrett and Brunson, they are the no. 2 or no. 3 best players in New York now after finishing top-48 and top-46 in fantasy leagues last year. Brunson comes from having a low USG% of 21.9 in Dallas last year and facing a pair of usage monsters above 27.5% in Randle/Barrett. That will change next season with Brunson manning the Knicks and having posted a 16-4-5-1 line while starting 61 of 79 regular-season games with the Mavs. The postseason run was phenomenal and New York (and we) believe it's repeatable on a legit PG1 role at MSG.

Ricky Rubio, PG - Cleveland Cavaliers

The return of Rubio to Cleveland was pretty much a done deal since the minute he got injured and was traded away from the Cavs. Rubio seemed to have found his place in Ohio and he's returning to play backup point-guard next season with the Cavs after he did so last year in the 34 games he got to play. The Cavs are loaded at the one and two-guard slots though, with Darius Garland and Caris LeVert going nowhere and Raul Neto getting added to the fold. Collin Sexton, too, has yet to decide his future with Cleveland having the right to match any offer he receives as a restricted FA.

All of that said, there aren't much more solid veteran-on-the-cheap PGs out there for fantasy GMs. Of course, you can tame your expectations a lot in terms of what Rubio will produce next season and beyond. His minutes won't probably top 20 a pop but he will be the main man in the second unit once he's fully available. The 1.08 FP/min mark was absolutely delightful (league average at around 0.90). and even with little playing time, Rubio finished 2021 at 30.4 FPPG (the 34th-highest figure among players eligible at the G positions).

John Wall, PG - Los Angeles Clippers

Wall is back. Wall is back! You might have forgotten but we're out here talking about a legit top-5 player in the NBA at the peak of his powers. Seriously. That's probably not the John Wall we'll see doing it in Hollywood this season, but he should still provide tons of value to both his real and fantasy GMs out there. Wall, mind you, has not played a single game since mid-2021, sat out last season entirely, and in the last three campaigns he played he never topped either 41 games or 1,410 minutes. The lone fact that he will play next season makes him a winner already, and the addition of doing so for a monster of a team in the Clippers just puts the cherry on top of his case.

The Clippers had just one (if anything) "true" point guard last year in Reggie Jackson and he wasn't nearly close to a real asset in the fantasy realm with an average of just 30.3 FPPG and 0.97 FP/min. I mean, those are not bad numbers, but they are definitely not what you'd expect from a starter. It's what happens when you have Paul George getting a freakish 33.7% usage rate and dropping 5.7 APG himself. Jackson gets automatically demoted to the second unit with Wall taking on PG1 duties. Wall is a legit superstar and that means that he and Kawhi (returning from injury) will take a rather high usage rate to themselves. Best-case scenario, Wall gets to play 60+ games, logs 32+ MPG, and reaches around 36-to-40 FPPG to finish the year as a top-50 player overall.

Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG - Utah Jazz

I'm not entirely sure how this whole "retooling" will end in Salt Lake, but for starters, I think we should consider Mitchell a winner at least as things stand. After the Jazz finally moved on from big man Rudy Gobert, Mitch is the legit no. 1 of the team without any sort of question now. He probably already was, of course, but there is just no doubt about it now. As hard as it might feel for Mitch to get more touches, time of possession, usage, etc... it will happen if only because someone will need to carry the load – and there is one fewer man around to do so with Gobert off to Minny. In comes Jarred Vanderbilt, though, who proved to be a legit lob threat with the Wolves and won't command many touches as he's still maturing and has yet to ascend to the next level of respectability in the NBA circuit.

Mitchell has already approached nonsensical levels of usage, mind you. He's posted marks of nearly 33% in back-to-back seasons in the last two campaigns posting figures of 20+ FGA and 2.8+ TOPG. The minutes have stayed at 33+ MPG in all of his five seasons as a pro, so that's no point of concern. The efficiency, even on those bulky numbers, has stayed as high as possible and in fact, it went up a notch from 2020 to 2021 and last year reaching 1.28 and 1.26 FP/min respectively. Mitchell has finished all last three seasons as a top-40 player including a couple of top-20 seasons (the only one in which he dropped from that level was 2021 when he could only play 53 games). There is still the (big) chance Utah goes full-tanking and Mitchell gets moved (New York – Knicks or Nets – maybe?) and that could change the equation, but I have to think he's a bit of a winner these days.

Patty Mills, PG/SG - Brooklyn Nets

I don't really know if Patty Mills is 100% a winner here, but given the latest developments on the other side of New York, odds are he ends up getting that label at some point throughout the 2022 season. I don't need to make you aware of the situation in heavy detail because you already know all of it. Kevin Durant is mostly gone and Kyrie Irving will be too. Ben Simmons is the only "point guard" in BKN going forward, and we'll see if he doesn't get traded too in order to facilitate other potential deals.

Mills has been a steady performer for years now, and he got to start 48 of 81 games last season with Kyrie playing just 29. Mills, truth be told, was atrocious (0.68 FP/min) compared to his prior numbers, but he still got to 1600 FP over the year for a top-60 finish among G-eligible players. I'm betting on a positive rebound here. I see no possible way in which Mills 1) doesn't improve on a career-low year and 2) doesn't get much more run and responsibilities in a barren team in which he will get back to his (relatively, for his role) high-usage rates (he's coming off a 16.4 USG% campaign). He's an obvious loser in real life because he joined a title-bound team and is now left in a depressed franchise for two years, but he could be a fantasy winner for those needing depth at the guard positions.

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