September 8, 2016

Pierre Camus breaks down the Thursday night game for week one of the 2016 NFL season. He analyzes which players to start or sit for fantasy football leagues according to matchups.

It's the first game of the 2016 NFL season, and I'm here to analyze the Thursday night matchups with my start/sit recommendations. This week, it's a repeat of Super Bowl 50 between the champion Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down every game and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and injury information as well. Later this week, you will find parts one and two of our Week 1 NFL matchups, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Panthers @ Broncos - Thursday 9/8 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN) - While I don't love Anderson as a feature back this season, he will definitely earn the bulk of the carries to start the year. You can bet the Broncos will be conservative with first-time starter Trevor Siemian and pin their hopes on defense and ground control. If Denver approaches the goal line, the play-calling will likely tighten up even more, which plays into Anderson's hands. He should see at least 20 rushing attempts against a defense that allowed 88.4 Rush YPG in 2015. He may not go for a great average, but there should enough volume to make him start-worthy as a RB2. Don't forget, he rumbled for 90 YDS and a TD in the Super Bowl.

Demaryius Thomas / Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN) - You're bound to be confused in a minute when you read that Siemian is listed as a matchup I hate. While I certainly don't feel comfortable playing Siemian in any format in his first NFL start, that doesn't mean his receivers will be completely blanked. Don't forget that high-priced free agent Josh Norman, who played like the best cornerback in football last season, bolted for Washington in the off-season. As a result, the Broncos wideouts will be facing a pair of rookie cornerbacks. All Thomas needs is a little space to shake free and use his long stride to create a big play. Thomas is more of a boom-or-bust play this week, but it's hard to bench such a talented player when he is a constant home run threat. Sanders will likely serve as a safety net for Siemian out of the slot and PPR owners should feel safe to deploy him as a WR2.

Graham Gano (K, CAR) - The Panthers were not shut out completely in last year's Super Bowl, but the offense simply couldn't get by Von Miller and company often enough to really pose a serious threat. With just two red zone visits in last year's big game, there could be a chance for Gano to improve on those numbers significantly. I don't foresee the Panthers finding their way into the end zone too much, rather they will push their way towards field goal range enough to make Gano a weapon.

Denver Defense - As with Newton, you're starting them every week because you probably made them the top overall pick at that position. It doesn't hurt to remind yourself that they posted seven sacks, four turnovers and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50. They may not match those figures, but expect enough big plays that you won't be disappointed.

Matchups We Hate

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - Benjamin is a dicey start no matter how healthy he is. He hasn't played a regular season game in over a year and now he gets to face the top defense in the league. Add to that reports that he will be on a snap count around 35 and there is little hope for fantasy value unless he finds his way into the end zone. While he isn't a complete must-avoid, he is no better than a WR3 in week one.

Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN) - Even die-hard Broncos fans would be reluctant to roll the dice on Siemian in his first NFL start. If this were a pressure-free situation in the middle of the year against a team like San Fran or Cleveland, things might be different. Siemian is bound to have plenty of nerves going on and facing a team that finished sixth in total defense at 322.9 YPG last year isn't going to help. Don't get cute this early in the year, even in two-QB leagues, as there are bound to be better options.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR) - The Broncos don't give up big runs, period. They finished third in defensive rushing yards per game, with opponents averaging just 3.3 Y/A. Stewart had a nice 2015, but he is not the type of player who will run away from Von Miller in space. He averaged a mere 2.4 Y/A and was a non-factor in last year's big game. No reason to expect any different results this time around.

Notable Players

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - Newton is the most notable of all players in the league, much less this game, especially in this "don't call it a rematch" Super Bowl rematch. All eyes will be on him and how he responds to last year's bitter loss. Chances are he will come out firing. Obviously, if you are a Cam owner, you're starting him every week regardless of matchups so there's little need to justify putting him in your lineup. Although I can't put him in the Love category when he's facing the best defense in the league, I do expect Cam to give it his all and put up big numbers.

Devin Funchess (WR, CAR) - Second-year receiver Funchess enters the year as one of the top sleeper candidates at wide receiver. Benjamin's status being less than 100% only cements the idea that he will have to play a bigger role early on. If Newton is going to find success down the field in Denver, Funchess is the likeliest target. I don't advise putting him in your lineup as anything higher than a WR3 or flex play until seeing what type of chemistry he and Cam have on the field this year. Still, he makes a better play than Benjamin and is serviceable if you don't have better options.

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Cam Newton, C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen, Brandon McManus, Graham Gano

Sit: Trevor Siemian, Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn, Virgil Green

Key Injuries: Jeff Heuerman (TE, DEN) - questionable