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Brandon Murchison analyzes optimal DFS value plays for tournaments for Week 5 of the NFL season. These GPP value plays are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
In what's becoming a trend, the Week 4 DFS slate was chock full of surprising performances. Sure, we saw some of the top-tier players mixed in atop the leaderboard, but when players such as Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco finish inside the top-10 you know it was a tough week to predict. There were the chalk plays that many owners were aware of (Wayne Gallman and Darrel Williams) that came through, but it was the surprising performances of players like Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette that tilted the balance of DFS contests. Whenever you can cash during weeks such as this, consider it a victory.
Heading into Week 5, the guessing game is in full effect. The traditional thought process will tell you to focus on the heavy hitters, most of whom will have plus matchups this week. The conundrum is how can you take advantage of this and build a lineup with some of the upper-echelon players? You can do this by finding those diamonds in the rough that allow you to spend your money wisely. Although you should see more of the household names mixed in the top of the rankings this week, there will be several players that you can roster on the cheaper side that will have decent matchups. Doing your due diligence and finding those players is what will separate you from a cash winning week to needing to drop another deposit in Week 6.
So what are some of the under the radar plays that can help you cash in this weekend? That is what we look to identify in the Week 5 Sneaky Plays for DFS.
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Week 5 Quarterback Value Play for GPPs
Andy Dalton vs. Arizona Cardinals ($7,500 FanDuel, $5,700 DraftKings)
Going into what many considered to be an easy matchup in Week 4, Dalton struggled mightily against a soft Steelers Defense (171 yards and 1 INT). So why should you be considering him as a play in DFS for Week 5? Well, yet again it is because of the matchup. The Cardinals are among the league's worst in points allowed to the position (3rd in the league with 24.3 FPPG). Aside from Russell Wilson last week, the Cardinals have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each game this season. With the Bengals struggling to consistently run the ball, look for the offense to lean on Dalton in this game. I expect to see him throw for at least 280 yards and at minimum two scores in this game, making him a player that will exceed his value and also one that could go overlooked this week.
Week 5 Running Back Value Plays for GPPs
Nyheim Hines @ Kansas City Chiefs ($4,800 FanDuel, $4,800 DraftKings)
With 9 receptions over his last two games, Hines is starting to find his role in the Colts offense again. Heading into Week 5, he should see an uptick in value yet again as he will be matched up against a Chiefs Defense that is bottom third in points allowed to opposing RBs (20.0 FPPG). The Colts should be playing from behind in this game and coupled with a hampered Marlon Mack, Hines could be in store for a very busy day. After surrendering five receptions to the Lions running backs a week ago, the Chiefs defense could be attacked this way yet again. I expect to see Hines haul in somewhere in the region of six catches in this game and get into the end zone late. He is a player that you can plug in as your Flex as he should easily play up to his value.
Duke Johnson vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,300 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)
After a busy Week 1, Johnson has been largely irrelevant in the Texans offense the last three games. That could change heading into Week 5 as he will see a plus matchup against the Falcons Defense, that although they play fairly well against opposing RBs (16.2 FPPG), they can be had by pass-catching backs. The Falcons defense has allowed at least five receptions in each of the previous three games, meaning Johnson should find more work in this game. I would be shocked to see him not catch at least five passes in this game due to game-script. He is another player that is viable as your Flex and should play well above his price in DFS.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Value Plays for GPPs
Cole Beasley @ Tennessee Titans ($5,500 FanDuel, $4,600 DraftKings)
With 15 catches over the last two games, Beasley has now emerged as the go-to receiver for the Bills passing attack. With Josh Allen likely to be limited for this week's matchup against the Titans, Beasley could be in store for another busy afternoon. The Titans have been one of the best units in the league against opposing receivers (20.1 FPPG) but they allow most of their points to slot receivers (17.4 FPPG). This has all the makings for Beasley to finish the week as a low-end WR2. He will be a low-owned option that you can sneak into your roster and can help you afford higher-priced players elsewhere.
Keesean Johnson @ Cincinnati Bengals ($4,600 FanDuel, $3,500 DraftKings)
Johnson has been largely overlooked in the Cardinals offense throughout most of this season. But with Christian Kirk nursing an injury and potentially out for this contest, someone has to pick up the slack. The Bengals only allow 20.2 FPPG to opposing receivers, but in what could be a high-scoring affair, Johnson could see plenty of opportunities with an increased snap count. He may not set the world on fire as a PPR option, but I can certainly see him getting into the end zone here. He is an extremely cheap option that will also go overlooked in Week 5, giving you a leg up on the competition if he happens to hit.
Week 5 Tight End Value Play for GPPs
Trey Burton @ Oakland Raiders ($4,800 FanDuel, $3,300 DraftKings)
Burton has been slowly getting worked back into the offense after missing the opening week of the season. Heading into Week 5, this could be the week that he breaks through. With Chase Daniel starting at QB, the offense could potentially run more smoothly in this game. Also given the matchup against a Raiders Defense that is third in points allowed to the position (11.3 FPPG), Burton could be the sneaky play at tight end that you need in your lineups. Coming off of a game in which the Raiders surrendered two scores to Colts TEs, The Bears should feed Burton in this matchup.
