RADIO
Welcome to Week 3 of the NBA season, Rotoballers! The new in-season tournament has debuted, James Harden has been traded, and plenty of teams have gotten blown out while giving up 140+ points. What a time to be a fan of the NBA!
We're back again this week to discuss dynasty fantasy basketball formats for all of those fantasy managers who want to feel like they're the general manager of a real team. Dynasty leagues in both fantasy baseball and football have taken off and that's flowed over to the basketball world. Each manager has to weigh their options and decide who is worth buying or selling so that they can actually upgrade their roster outside of just the rookie draft.
What we're aiming to do each week is show which players are losing value and those that are gaining value. Hopefully, this will help some of you buy low, sell high, or just brag to your league mates that you chose the right players from day one. Without further ado, let's check in on some of the risers and fallers through the first couple of weeks!
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
Risers For Dynasty Fantasy Basketball Leagues
Jordan Hawkins (PG/SG, NOP)
The 14th overall pick in the latest NBA Draft put his talent on display over the past couple of games after CJ McCollum unfortunately suffered a small collapsed lung. Jordan Hawkins took advantage of his opportunity and he's made Dyson Daniels look quite expendable for both the Pelicans and fantasy managers.
Hawkins is already seeing 27.3 minutes a night so far in his rookie year but that number increased to 32.2 in the last week. While his field goal percentage hasn't been pretty, he's able to contribute in more ways than just scoring. Over this last week, he's averaged 15.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 3.5 threes per game while hitting 88.9% of his free throws. To add even more to that, he only turned the ball over once per contest.
While everyone is obsessing over some of the big-name rookies, Hawkins can perform as the sleeper pick for many fantasy managers who were selecting near the later half of the first round or even second round. When McCollum returns, it will surely eat into his minutes and opportunities, but moving forward, Hawkins has been showing that he has some real long-term value.
Cam Thomas (PG/SG, BKN)
If anyone hasn't tuned in to the Cam Thomas show by now, they're missing out on some must-see TV! In five of his seven games played this season, he's scored 27 or more points with his most recent performance coming in at 45. He not only found his way to the starting lineup, but he's receiving 34.2 minutes a night as well.
Thomas has already shown flashes of a big-time scoring ability throughout his first two seasons when the team was hurting for some bodies to throw into the backcourt. Almost every time he got the call, he delivered. Right now, the 22-year-old is averaging 28.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.4 threes per game while shooting 48.3% from the floor and 84.4% from the free throw line.
According to Basketball Monster's z-score rankings, Thomas sits at 26th in terms of category-league value. Fantasy managers will want to proceed with a bit of caution because the 21.6 field goal attempts per contest are bound to cause his field goal percentage to come back to Earth. Also, while his value has increased, there are still questions surrounding his playmaking before he becomes a full-time fantasy asset when the Nets add more weapons. Until some sort of shake-up happens, it's full speed ahead!
Marcus Sasser (PG, DET)
Before anyone starts trying to either buy or sell Marcus Sasser stock for first-round picks, let's clear something up about him being considered a "riser." Yes, his stock is rising in dynasty formats as a rookie who has seen a big boost in playing time and has taken advantage of it. With that being said, his stock has not hit a high that makes him worth the same as the two mentioned above or even some of his other draft classmates.
In his first four games, Sasser wasn't playing more than 14 minutes on any given night. Over the last four games, however, he saw his playing time take a huge jump to 27.4 minutes per game. Across that period, he posted 14.0 points, 4.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 2.5 threes per game with shooting splits of .524/.500/1.000. I'm sure that fantasy managers did the same thing I did while taking a look at his efficiency and traditional box score while he was sharing the floor with Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Killian Hayes, and Jalen Duren.
The biggest reason for pumping the brakes about the rise of Sasser is that the guard rotation for the Pistons is still confusing at best. Hayes remains in the starting lineup while the entire world was banking on him moving to a bench role after the team spent first-round capital in two separate drafts. Cunningham is still the go-to player while Thompson and Duren look like the other two pieces of the future, so Sasser still has a long road ahead to be considered big value in dynasty formats.
Fallers For Dynasty Fantasy Basketball Leagues
Jaden Ivey (PG/SG, DET)
While we're on the topic of the Detroit Pistons and their strange guard rotation, this would be a great time to bring up their fifth overall pick from the 2022 NBA Draft. There haven't been any reports on the topic yet, but it feels as though Jaden Ivey somehow landed in Monty Williams' dog house.
The Purdue product started in all but one of the 74 games he played last year while averaging 31.1 minutes per contest. This season, he hasn't started a single game yet and has only seen 20.7 minutes a night. Due to that fact, Ivey has seen decreases in all of his traditional stats except for his shooting percentages. He's been quite efficient in his limited time as he boasts shooting splits of .491/.409/.833. With the big improvement in efficiency, it begs the question of why is he losing minutes to Killian Hayes.
Ivey's value isn't completely gone because he still has displayed the talent to contribute both in fantasy and on an NBA court when he's given the opportunity. As long as he keeps coming off of the bench, and seeing his minutes taken away by rookies and players that weren't expected to be getting more opportunities, his value will continue to decrease by the day.
Robert Williams III (C, POR)
Unfortunately, we've already arrived at the point of the season where someone has either suffered a season-ending injury or has to undergo a big procedure. Robert Williams III can't seem to catch a break when it comes to lower body injuries. His knee, hip, and ankle have all caused him to miss a considerable amount of time throughout his career.
Now, he's on the cusp of selecting to undergo knee surgery that will either end his season or keep him out for months, after just six games. While Williams is just 26 years old and can still come back from this next season and contribute at a level that isn't known just yet, it will be much more difficult to get back to a level that helps fantasy managers.
On top of that, after he was traded to the Portland Trail Blazers, he didn't see many opportunities playing behind Deandre Ayton. Hopefully, managers with some stock in Williams can get a bit of value in return from someone willing to take a flyer on his future.
Andrew Wiggins (SF/PF, GSW)
On another episode of "What is going on here," we have Andrew Wiggins and his insanely slow start to the new season. Yes, insanely slow! After his performance in the NBA Finals, and his top-65 finish in category formats last season, Wiggins seemed in line to expand on that and maybe even reach the top 50. Instead, he's dropped to an all-time low at 412th in Basketball Monster's z-score rankings for category leagues.
Not only is he receiving fewer minutes this season (25.3 minutes per game), he's hitting career-low marks in almost every stat category except for turnovers. Even his free throw shooting has suffered as he's knocking down just 53.6% of them. His field goal percentage sits at 41.5% and his true shooting is at a career-low 45.6%. It's truly astounding how low every stat is across the board for Wiggins so far which is also highlighted by the fact that he is a putrid -29.6 in net plus/minus per 100 possessions.
The reason that his dynasty value is falling, and not just his redraft value, is that he's 28 years old and should be in the prime years of his career. Instead, he's not playing as much and not coming close to capitalizing on the time that he does get. Fantasy managers may want to call out to the Fantasy Gods to give him a stretch of good play so they can sell him for some more assets than he would call for right now.
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