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Mike's Week 2 college football betting picks against the spread for Friday, September 11, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
We expected some crazy things in Week 1, but Week 1 nearly broke the internet. The officiating and "clock management" by the officials in the Big House was a black mark on the week. Whether they're right or not doesn't matter. The NCAA won't do anything about it. And just like that, Lane Kiffin wasn't the most hated thing about college football. He went and beat the hell out of Clemson to prove it.
There are 86 games this week. Only 49 of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. Only two of those are on Friday. I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway.
If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny. I will tell you a couple of games that I like, even though I will not assign a wager for them. I hit two of the three recommendations last week, including a Tarleton outright win. This week I'm looking at Illinois State -4.5 over NIU, Wofford +11.5 vs. Kent, and Montana State -3.5 vs. Nevada.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 2
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
I came out 26 points ahead last year. Any year that you come out ahead is a good one. Unfortunately, I think I gave all of that back in Week 0. Week 1 looked even worse. We'll check that after the picks for Friday, September 11.
Rutgers at Boston College (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like this. There is a non-zero chance that UMass is better than Boston College. This is off the boards at a few places, most notably MGM, right now. The places that still have it up have a ton of juice on Rutgers.
Why? Because Cincinnati ran for 254 yards and three touchdowns on the Eagles. These are two "power teams" that are being lifted by their conferences. Most Group of 6 teams are better than both of these teams.
I feel like this is an overcorrection for Rutgers losing to UMass. The Knights stopped running the ball because of the negative game script. BC's offense isn't good enough to get out on them. I like Rutgers outright, where the line was before last week.
Pick: Rutgers +3.5
Missouri (-5.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is one of those games that need to be played every season. The players don't really care, but the fans sure do. This was the longest rivalry in college football when Missouri left for the SEC in 2012, suspending the series.
They resumed it last year, and it was as heated as ever. This game is usually close, no matter what the teams look like heading into it. Missouri hasn't lost to Kansas since 2008 and hasn't lost in Lawrence since 2005. I'll say that holds.
Pick: Missouri -5.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 1 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Massachusetts at Rutgers (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The line dropped, and we pounded Rutgers. Vegas was laughing all the way to the bank with our cash.
UMass got paid $1.55M to come to Rutgers and left with the win ? pic.twitter.com/6L6UfaQAzq
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 4, 2026
UMass had lost 16 in a row and had never beaten a power conference team. Wins over BYU in 2017 and Boston College in 1972 and 1978 were when those teams were still independent.
Pop Watson put on a show for the Minutemen. This fan base deserves it. UMass has been a tomato can since its return to FBS in 2014. That won't be the case this year.
A MAC team beating a Big Ten team was commonplace before 2020. It happened for 10 straight seasons before then. UMass ended a 30-game losing streak for the MAC against the Big Ten.
Akron at Wake Forest (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Wake offense looked really good. The defense allowed 13 fourth-quarter points to blow the cover. This was a theme for the weekend.
Colorado at Georgia Tech (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of the best and the worst games of the weekend. I knew that Colorado was going to be improved on offense, but the work the Buffaloes have done in run defense is impressive.
UAB at Illinois (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The growth of Ryder Burton in the offseason was apparent. Illinois got after him, and he still led both teams in passing yards. Illinois had no interest in covering this line.
San Jose State at Eastern Michigan (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Luke Weaver is going to be a problem in the Mountain West, just not for the team we originally thought.
UTEP at (10) Oklahoma (-41.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I saw what I wanted to see. John Mateer looked good, the defense dominated, and Lloyd Avant appears to be RB1.
Toledo at Michigan State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Despite the loss, this was a strong game for Toledo. They held Cam Edwards to 98 yards on 27 carries. Adjatay Dabbs topped 100 yards in the loss. This went as well as it could have for the Rockets despite getting covered.
(7) Miami (FL) (24.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I will just go ahead and say this now because I'm thinking it. Not only is Darian Mensah better than Carson Beck, but Malachi Toney is the best WR in college football right now. This is a championship team.
Toney began his sophomore campaign by setting a Miami record for receiving yards in a game with 229. Think about all of the good receivers that went to Miami. Michael Irvin, Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne all attended The U. Toney topped all of them.
These Stanford DBs are helpless. Malachi Toney is doing whatever he wants pic.twitter.com/OEjs7j7c1M
— LandonTengwall (@LandonTengwall) September 5, 2026
Fresno State at (14) USC (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know it's early, but not enough is being made of Jayden Maiava's start. He hasn't been a particularly accurate QB in college. Maiava only has six incompletions in 54 attempts this year.
Trent Worley is already a star after two games. This offense is going to be one of the most potent in the country once Waymond Jordan and Tanook Hines are back to top form.
North Texas at (6) Indiana (-40.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Am I crazy for thinking that allowing 61 yards and a touchdown to Jahiem White is a precursor to problems on the Indiana defense? The offense looked the part. New QB Josh Hoover looked sharp, but he only threw 16 passes.
We didn't learn much about the Hoosiers. Whatever problems they have, Indiana has a lot of time to figure things out before they face a team that could beat them.
East Carolina at (13) Alabama (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If I were an Alabama fan, I would be pleased by this game. Keelon Russell grew into his role after the first quarter, and Ryan Coleman-Williams had his first 100-yard game in 357 days. The Tide were rolling in this one.
Oregon State at (23) Houston (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was a miserable day in Houston, but Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson was unaffected. His FBS debut resulted in 376 passing yards. The Houston defense might be a sore spot once again.
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a laugher until it wasn't. The Mountaineers were up 24-0 at halftime, but Deuce Bailey brought the Chanticleers storming back in the second half.
Ohio at Nebraska (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Anthony Colandrea's Nebraska debut was a good one, but this was a seven-point game with 10 minutes left. That garbage-time touchdown inside of two minutes blew the cover.
Liberty at James Madison (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Dukes made me sweat this.
Ball State at (1) Ohio State (-50.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I wasn't betting on this one. The second and third strings covered this anyway.
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mason Heintschel just opened Pitt’s season with a RECORD-BREAKING performance ??
31/41, 453 PYDS, 7 PTD, 0 INT
His 7 TD passes tied the Pitt single-game record, and all 7 went to different receivers. pic.twitter.com/cTB3jwNwFv
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 5, 2026
Miami's defense isn't that bad. Maybe Mason Heintschel is just that good. Whatever the case, he's now a Pitt record holder. What a start to his sophomore season!
Kent State at South Carolina (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was complete domination by the South Carolina defense. The other major story is that LaNorris Sellers only had four incompletions and threw for 270 yards with three scores.
Boise State at (2) Oregon (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm surprised that Boise State came this close to dumping Oregon again. David Pollack hates college football. Games like this are what make college football, especially the early weeks, so enjoyable.
Quit trying to normalize dodging good Group of 6 teams. I'm sad that Boise took the cash instead of making Oregon go to the Smurf Turf. I understand why they did, but a game like that in Boise would be legendary.
Texas State at (5) Texas (-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still think that Texas State is one of the better Go6 teams out there, which speaks volumes about Texas. The Bobcats can still be one of the best non-power teams. In the grand scheme of things, this doesn't count against Texas State's goal.
Marshall at (18) Penn State (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In a week where the South Florida and Oklahoma State offenses in new places struggled, Matt Campbell's Iowa State offense in new uniforms pummeled a decent Marshall team.
This is what Iowa State could have looked like with an elite defense. Penn State is a CFP team. Just look at that schedule...
Baylor at Auburn (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Baylor's defense forced Byrum Brown into one of the worst games of his career. He threw three interceptions and only had 27 rushing yards on 21 carries. Meanwhile, DJ Lagway looked solid in his Baylor debut.
It took everything Auburn had to win this game. Baylor was about three inches short of the upset.
BAYLOR FALLS JUST SHORT OF THE GOAL LINE ?
Auburn wins in the final seconds with a CLUTCH tackle ‼️ pic.twitter.com/JCgjTS1fC6
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 5, 2026
Boston College at Cincinnati (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have maxed this out. Cincinnati carved up Boston College on the ground.
Tulane at Duke (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulane's offense was an absolute disaster. Kadin Semonza wasn't a lot better than Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, but he was enough better that the Wave are starting Semonza this week.
Honestly, Tulane should be more worried about the run defense. Nate Sheppard led all of FBS with 227 rushing yards in Week 1.
Oklahoma State (-14.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the first time that Tulsa had beaten Oklahoma State in back-to-back years since Tulsa won three straight from 1950 to 1952. It wasn't just a fluke play either.
Tulsa dominated both lines, and Baylor Hayes was more efficient than last year's FBS passing leader, Drew Mestemaker. This was an impressive performance by the Tulsa defense. The offense wasn't bad either.
Northern Illinois at (22) Iowa (31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Quarterback? Iowa don't need no stinking quarterback! They spend all of their NIL money on an offensive line and running backs. It seems to work.
Wyoming at Colorado State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hauss Hejny may be the best G6 quarterback if he can stay healthy. This was an absolute clinic.
HOUSE CALL ?
Hauss Hejny connects with RJ Vick for a 57-yard BOMB ?
CSU 21 | 13 WYO pic.twitter.com/AyV3dnrMbw
— USA Sports (@usasports) September 6, 2026
Missouri State at (8) Texas A&M (-40.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is precisely what one-point bets are for.
Arkansas State at Memphis (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FOUR TOUCHDOWNS?! ?
? | @ESPNCFB #BuiltToRise x @MemphisFB pic.twitter.com/7ngXlZrwyq
— The American (@American_Conf) September 6, 2026
I'm starting a Jaylin Carter fan club. Anyone want in?
Florida International at South Florida (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I never felt like this game was in question, but USF still didn't cover. There were too many missed opportunities on offense.
Sam Houston at Troy (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sam Houston might be on to something with Landyn Locke. He threw circles around Goose Crowder.
Clemson at (11) LSU (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not going to hide from it. I was completely out on LSU. I was very wrong. Sam Leavitt is pain-free for the first time in over a year. He is showing us why Arizona State made the CFP in 2024.
Lost in the circus surrounding Lane Kiffin is the fact that he can still coach. It's easy to forget about that with all of the off-field chaos that he causes. All eyes were on this game, and LSU gave Clemson the FCS treatment. This was total domination, and it could have been worse.
Western Michigan at (16) Michigan (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What can I say that hasn't been said? Western Michigan was likely robbed, but we know the NCAA isn't going to do anything about it. They're scared of the Big Ten. All they can do now is issue new "guidelines" that theoretically prevent this from happening again.
proof that there should NOT have been 1 second added to the michigan game pic.twitter.com/TCnqnQD8O9
— blashdril (@blashdril) September 7, 2026
The thing that gets me is that in the explanation that the Big Ten issued, in the angle they have synced to the clock, you can't tell when the Western Michigan player touched the ball. You can only see that in the broadcast angle. The clock was expired in that angle.
Aside from the fact that the rule they cited is NEVER enforced, why were they looking at this in the first place? Kyle Whittingham was acting like the game was over.
It's a terrible look for Michigan, but for those of you calling Michigan "cheaters," how did they cheat? The officials and Big Ten handled everything. Are we supposed to believe that Warde Manuel was in their ear for the duration of the replay? That seems unlikely.
The more likely explanation was that Rutgers already lost to UMass. They couldn't afford a big brand like Michigan losing to Western Michigan. If anything nefarious was going on, it was by the Big Ten, not Michigan itself.
Honestly, I'm surprised that something like this hasn't happened sooner. I know that the networks do everything they can to make it as close to being at the stadium as possible, but short of having the stadium clock on the screen at all times, something like this was bound to happen.
It is possible that the clock was off. The thing is, the officials should have synced the clocks when they reset it to nine seconds before the final play. I will say this. If it were Western Michigan that threw that ball, they wouldn't have even reviewed it. The game would have (rightfully) been over.
For those of you saying, "well, all WMU had to do was stop the second Hail Mary," think about this: what happens in that time? If you're a WMU player, you pulled off maybe the biggest win in school history.
This was a school that didn't want you, and YOU beat THEM. That kind of elation causes a massive adrenaline dump. Going back on the field after that, you literally have nothing left.
The sad part is that it should never have come to this. The clock thing was bad, but this was far, far worse.
No face mask call… #badcalls #givehimhisheadback
WMU 9, UM 7, 10:16 left in game. pic.twitter.com/VyEhsW3Se9— SpartanCenter (@SpartanCenterig) September 6, 2026
That should have been an automatic first down on the facemask penalty. Who knows what happens on the rest of that drive, but WMU likely gets points. There should have been at the very least a running into the kicker penalty on the last punt.
With all of the controversy that we have had with referees lately, there were a lot of calls that were missed in this game, all on Michigan. The optics of it are bad. The officials may be just that bad, but why are they working in a billion-dollar conference? Don't they have standards?
The answer that no one wants to hear is that, of course, they have standards. This also makes it look as though they have marching orders.
At least now we have guidelines, but this is a huge "loss" for Western Michigan as far as the CFP is concerned. It likely won't mean much for Michigan, but a Michigan feather in the WMU cap would have loomed large in the CFP rankings.
Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi State (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
TRENDING: Kamario Taylor looks like a CHEAT CODE playing the QB position.
One NFL scout reportedly thought Taylor looked like a “young” Cam Newton in his sophomore debut.
The Mississippi State QB is called Super Kamario for a REASON ?? pic.twitter.com/Q0U5hokbKX
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 9, 2026
It's almost unfair how good Kamario Taylor is. It certainly was unfair for ULM...
Florida Atlantic at Florida (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
All of these power teams covering at home sure makes it look like parity in college football is dissipating because of money discrepancies. Not every team is doing it, but you can clearly see who has money and who doesn't.
UNLV (-2.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I let trends get the best of me, and my previous Jackson Arnold experiences led me astray. Whatever he was or wasn't at Oklahoma doesn't mean that he isn't a great fit in Dan Mullen's offense.
Central Michigan at New Mexico (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is another situation where I outsmarted myself. I don't trust that much play in the line, but by now I should trust Jason Eck. He's got another good one in Albuquerque in Luke Moga.
UCLA (-2.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That was a generationally bad fourth quarter from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Contrast that with other sophomore quarterbacks who excelled in Week 1, and it's going to look bad.
What people are forgetting is that maybe Bob Chesney was the missing link for UCLA. Things are rarely universal in college football, but it is almost universal that UCLA's main problem in 2025 was coaching. That's fixed now.
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
WKU was dominated on the ground. Nevada ran for 323 yards and five touchdowns. They were Iowa West in Reno on Saturday night.
Washington State at (17) Washington (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the way the Apple Cup is supposed to be. It was 10-0 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The Washington State offense struggled mightily once again.
Wisconsin vs. (4) Notre Dame (-20.5) at Green Bay, WI: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one stings because Wisconsin played as good a game as they could have for three quarters. Then it got away from them. Wisconsin's defense was solid for most of the game, and the offense looked serviceable.
(24) Louisville vs. (9) Mississippi (-6.5) at Nashville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It wasn't even the injury to Kewan Lacy. Ole Miss was in a fight the whole game. When they did pull ahead a little, the defense let them down. Trinidad Chambliss lost his first FBS fumble and threw an interception. He only threw three in 13 games last year.
The easiest answer is that Louisville is better than we think. Lincoln Kienholz was almost as good as Chambliss, and he didn't make a mistake in his first start. The Louisville defense did a great job. Mississippi was very lucky to win this.
(19) SMU (-2.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would need this line to drop below 3. It did on Saturday night. This is a game that SMU had no business winning. Kevvin Jennings threw two interceptions. The Mustangs lost two fumbles.
Florida State won the turnover battle 4-1, had half the penalties of SMU, and won time of possession. People are going to look at this and immediately point to coaching.
Florida State came out and publicly gave Mike Norvell a vote of confidence. We know what that means. He can likely get away with losing to Alabama, but the next four ACC games are Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and Clemson. I'll say that Norvell doesn't make it through that stretch.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had a bad Week 0. Week 1 wasn't much better. I missed on a lot of the big spreads. A 14-28 week is a horrible start, especially coupled with the 1-7 start in Week 0. I do feel like I learned things this week, but I've dug myself a giant hole. That's never good.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-4 (2-4) = -2
2. 7-12 (7-13) = -12
3. 6-4 (6-7) = -3
4. 0-5 (0-7) = -28
5. 1-3 (1-4) = -15
I lost 37 more points, putting me 60 points down after the first official week of the season. This is my worst start since 2016, when I lost 61 points in the first week.
I don't have an official running total, but I do know that I'm missing most of the 2019 stats, and that was my best season. I'll just have to make another!
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