RADIO
Perspective means a lot in sports, as in many areas of life. An example of this would be Shaquille Leonard. We mention him here frequently because he remains a legend in many IDP circles. Even this year he's been a pretty productive tackler, despite limited snaps and conflicts with his team/coaching staff. So, obviously a lot of us are intrigued about his potential on a new team, especially since Philly and Dallas are his primary suitors.
The positive perspective on Leonard begins with his tackle numbers. The former Colt is on pace for the 11th most tackles in the NFL on a per-snap basis. That’s good. He's also being chased by two elite defenses in the Eagles and Cowboys. Both teams are down starting linebackers and offer tremendous fantasy opportunities for an all-purpose linebacker… if that linebacker were to see quality volume and if he hadn’t lost a significant step.
The negative perspective starts with the fact Leonard cleared NFL waivers, meaning he’s lost that step. Frankly, Leonard is a liability in coverage, and he’s graded poorly as a pass rusher in each of his past two seasons. Between them, the Eagles and Cowboys have four linebackers who grade better than Leonard in coverage and as run defenders. Three of those four grade better as pass rushers as well. So, where does Leonard fit when each of those players is healthy?
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Quincy Williams, LB, New York Jets
Williams started this season on an absolute tear, finishing as a top-ten fantasy LB in my Standard IDP Scoring system for four of his first seven games. His production has fallen off recently, however. He’s produced just one double-digit tackle game in his past four.
The cure for those ills is the Atlanta Falcons. Arthur Blank's offense remains the third run-heaviest unit in the NFL. Plus, the Falcons have surrendered double-digit tackles to multiple opposing defenders in five of their past seven contests. The game script for this one should allow Atlanta to run the conservative script they want, feeding into Williams' totals.
Dude, Quincy Williams JUMPS off the tape. Like he was shot out of a cannon.
I mean, he's a Jet... so I can only like him so much.... but woah pic.twitter.com/IJ5QV44Eze
— George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) November 22, 2023
Stream: Roger McCreary, DB, Tennessee Titans
Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs dominate the Colts' passing game when the two are healthy. Downs averages 8.7 targets per start this season, while Pittman averages 10.9. Between them, they rotate into the slot often and are frequently used on short-area throws that bring them across the middle. That area of the field is where 56.9% of Gardner Minshew's targets go.
With Jonathan Taylor out, it’s likely that Downs and Pittman’s usage will be up like it was last weekend. McCreary plays inside and out, but most of his time is spent covering the middle of the field. He projects to get double-digit targets in this one.
Fade: Harrison Smith, DB, Minnesota Vikings
Yes, I know the Vikings are on bye this week. That fact should tell you something. With six teams on bye and many fantasy-relevant players unavailable this week, we must dig deep and get creative for some of our fades.
Harrison Smith is a fade for us because he's rostered in too many leagues. As of this writing, he is rostered in 27.3% of IDP leagues, making him the 13th most rostered DB in fantasy. However, he’s scored just the 30th most fantasy points at his position. Keep in mind that Smith hasn't yet served his bye, so his fantasy totals are inflated compared to most at his position.
On a per game basis, Smith is the 60th highest-scoring DB. That means there are 47 defensive backs scoring more fantasy points per game, yet they're rostered in fewer leagues. Many of those players have already served their bye, too. Smith isn’t worth carrying through his bye in most formats.
Fade: Jordan Phillips, DL, Minnesota Vikings
Let’s hit repeat on this strategy, shall we? After all, the player pool is thin this week, meaning the best players to fade are the ones who are guaranteed to get you zero points. Thus, many defenders on bye can be dropped in shallow leagues.
Phillips is one of those shallow league guys you can drop. Like his teammate Harrison Smith, Phillips is being carried through the bye in far too many leagues. As of now, Phillips is the 21st most rostered DL in fantasy. On a per game basis, he is the 47th highest-scoring DL. With his bye on tap, Phillips shouldn't be rostered in more leagues than Trey Hendrickson, Jeffery Simmons, or Haason Reddick.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Andrew Van Ginkel, DL/LB, Miami Dolphins
Van Ginkel was the replacement when Jaelan Phillips was out earlier this year, and all reports indicate that will be the case now that Phillips is out for the year. Van Ginkel has 20 quarterback pressures and four sacks in five games as a starter. This week he has a favorable matchup against a pass-heavy Commanders offense and a quarterback (Sam Howell) who leads the NFL in sacks taken by a whopping 15.
"Alexa, play 'Can't Touch This' by MC Hammer." - Andrew Van Ginkel, probably #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/K1roNMNwiM
— Kyle Crabbs (@GrindingTheTape) October 10, 2023
Stream: Jack Campbell, LB, Detroit Lions
Despite being a first-round pick in this year's NFL Draft and playing a position that often leads to immediate production for rookies, Campbell has seen over 70% of Detroit's defensive snaps in just one game. That should change if reports are accurate, and Alex Anzalone misses this weekend.
The Saints could be a tremendous matchup for Campbell's first big game. Chris Olave is questionable to play, Michael Thomas is out, and Rashid Shaheed isn't practicing. The Saints may have few options besides Alvin Kamara and their tight ends in the short game. That’s good for Detroit’s linebackers.
Fade: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, DB, New York Jets
Sauce is the 27th most rostered DB in fantasy. He is the 52nd highest scoring CB, however. His matchup against the Falcons should be very low-volume, as well.
Arthur Smith is famous for not forcing things to his top receivers, and he's finally discovered Bijan Robinson is good at football. Gardner is a tremendously big play-dependent asset in this one.
Fade: George Karlaftis, DL, Kansas City Chiefs
Many of you cannot afford to bench Karlaftis in a rough bye week. He's notched six sacks in his past six games, which is premium production. The Packers are not an ideal opponent, however.
Green Bay currently ranks as PFF's third-highest-graded pass-blocking offense. They are allowing the fifth-fewest sacks per game and surrendering just 10.7 pressures. Things have improved recently, too, with Jordan Love taking just one sack in each of his past three contests.
Defenders Worth Adding
Zyon McCollum, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McCollum has made this column several times, usually as a dynasty stash. However, he saw significant snaps with Jamel Dean out last week, and he produced nine tackles as a result.
The small school product’s coverage grade has dipped, and his targets are high, but he's also a big and strong tackler. That adds up to quality production for fantasy if Dean remains out.
Tre’von Moehrig, DB, Las Vegas Raiders
Moehrig is just the 87th most rostered DB in fantasy, but he’s the 13th highest-scoring safety. On a per game basis, he is the 45th highest-scoring DB in fantasy.
This TCU alum is worth carrying through his bye in deeper formats... but only if you have the space on your bench.
Markquese Bell, LB, Dallas Cowboys
A converted safety, Bell is the best linebacker Dallas has in coverage… and that includes the potential addition of Shaquille Leonard. Bell’s playing time has spiked since Leighton Vander Esch went down, too. In five starts, he’s averaging a healthy seven tackles per contest.
Bell is rostered in just 1.7% of IDP leagues, and his fantasy playoff schedule is favorable. He's worth a stash in deeper formats.
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