June 16, 2016

Nick Mariano's starting pitcher (sp) fantasy baseball waiver wire adds. Pickups and starting pitcher sleepers for Week 11 of the 2016 MLB season.

Here we go again with the latest edition of the SP Waiver Wire guide, where we plead with the fantasy baseball gods to grant us the wisdom and opportunity to unearth gold. In other words, where we look at sabermetrics and utilize the ol’ eye-test to analyze some low-owned options who can help you.

We're just a month away from the All Star Break here in mid-June, meaning some serious assessments are being done and trends are being made clear. Let’s dig in underneath the 40% owned marker, ignoring the guys who have been dropped due to legitimate struggles.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets

Jameson Taillon (PIT, SP) – 38% Owned – Taillon (pronounced TIE-own) came up for a spot start and got the no-decision after allowing three runs over six innings, striking out three alongside two walks. He has been beasting all season long in Triple-A, leading all Triple-A pitchers with a 1.91 FIP while teammate Tyler Glasnow is fourth with a 2.61 FIP. Gerrit Cole left Friday’s start with a triceps injury, which is certainly a daunting area for a pitcher to hurt, meaning that there could be a gap in the rotation that requires filling.

Julio Urias (LAD, SP) – 37% Owned – Urias wasn’t all that impressive in his first two starts, but he shut down the Rockies in his LA debut to the tune of seven strikeouts over four innings while allowing only one earned run. His pitch count racked up rather quickly, something that will be a factor all season long, but the future signs of dominance were flashed. That’s the upside you’re chasing. Urias will look to build on this momentum in a Sunday start against the Giants next.

Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP) – 36% Owned – Gausman has yet to get a victory despite pitching well, rocking a 3.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 54 strikeouts in 60 innings this season. His most recent start saw him go into Toronto and twirl 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball, an admirable effort. Unfortunately, pitching in the AL East will lead to many unfavorable matchups, but his talent is true and his 3.87 SIERA means he’s a solid starter to be deployed in favorable matchups. Of course, his next start is June 16 in Boston, which is most definitely not favorable. After that he should line up to face the Padres at home though.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 34% Owned – It only took an insane 12-strikeout game where he dominated the Padres to boost his ownership rate nearly 20%, finally some of you are listening! For starters who have pitched at least 50 innings this season, his 3.19 SIERA ranks ninth in the ENTIRE Major Leagues and his 27.9% K-rate ranks 12^th, making for just a few great indicators beneath that scary 4.70 ERA. David Price has a 4.63 ERA and 3.47 SIERA, for some context. Pick. Gray. Up.

Jerad Eickhoff (PHI, SP) – 31% Owned – Eickhoff has posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 26:7 K:BB ratio in the last 30 days (32 2/3 innings), though pitching for Philly has only yielded him a 2-3 record for his efforts in that stretch. Still, Eickhoff looks to be back to his old tricks. Unfortunately his next start comes in Toronto, but after that he at least gets a home turn against Arizona before facing Minnesota on the road.

Danny Duffy (KC, SP) – 30% Owned – Duffy continues to post impressive numbers this season, striking out a career-best 10 batters in six scoreless innings on June 11 against the White Sox. His 2.94 ERA and 3.10 FIP and roughly 2.90 SIERA are absolutely delectable, especially when combined with his 59 strikeouts in 49 innings. Even before today’s 10-strikeout game, his swinging strike rate was a top-five mark amidst starters with over 50 innings, which means he should be owned in a lot more leagues. Keep an eye on his fastball velocity as his year progresses, but if it holds then look out and buy, buy, buy.

Adam Conley (MIA, SP) – 29% Owned – Conley has put together back-to-back plus starts now, allowing three runs with a 17:4 K:BB ratio in them. He’ll take on the Diamondbacks in Arizona on June 12 before a home start against Colorado, unfortunately missing a series at Petco, but perhaps he’s found some consistency here. It’s certainly worth noting given his ability to miss bats.

Zach Davies (MIL, SP) – 27% Owned – Choo choo! This figure has spiked from 3% ownership last week as he’s now 3-0 in his past three starts, walking three with 18 strikeouts while allowing only four runs. He takes on the Mets at home next (his fourth straight home start) on June 12 and has entered deep mixed-league conversations. His .121 BABIP from June won’t hold, but even if that gives he’s still got a 2.72 FIP through his first two starts of the month, so give him a twirl.

Anthony DeSclafani (CIN, SP) – 25% Owned – He wasn’t all that super in his first start, but it was his first start. He pitched six innings of one-run ball against Oakland, walking three and allowing eight hits while striking out two. He had a strong finish to last season, he looked sharp on his rehab assignment, and now he gets to face the Braves on the road on June 15.

Archie Bradley (ARI, SP) – 24% Owned – The usual control issues are starting to show, as he’s walked seven in his past two starts (though he’s also struck out 15). That said, his three walks against the Cubs could be chalked up to being more careful and wanting to intentionally hit edges. Four walks to five strikeouts against the Rays in his most recent start is a bit concerning however. He faces the Dodgers on June 14 at home, and is still a solid start in most leagues given his upside.

Doug Fister (HOU, SP) – 23% Owned – Another week, another quality start from Fister. He now has posted a QS in nine of his previous ten starts, and hasn’t lost a game since April 25! He is riding some good fortune, but has been very skilled at inducing soft contact in the past. It appears that he’s back on his game after some recent faltering. As always, I’ll say that his 3.34 ERA is well below his 4.85 SIERA, but back to the previous point, his 2.41 ERA in 2014 had a 3.93 SIERA behind it. Maybe he’s just putting one of those voodoo seasons together, but be aware of the other shoe potentially dropping.

James Paxton (SEA, SP) – 21% Owned – J-Pax had another great outing against the Rangers, tossing 6 1/3 innings of scoreless ball with six hits and two walks to go with seven strikeouts. He was hitting 99 MPH when he needed to and really appears locked in on the mound. He's only 0-2, but he has a 2.25 ERA with 24 strikeouts against only four walks in 16 innings of work this season, meaning he deserves all of your attention. That being said, he's poised to head into Fenway Park to do battle with the red-hot Red Sox in his next start on June 17. Make the add now, even if you bench him there.

Dan Straily (CIN, SP) – 20% Owned – Straily was strong yet again on June 11, allowing only one run over seven innings on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts against the A’s for the win. His 3.15 ERA still backed by a low .226 BABIP (.261 career mark) as his FIP and SIERA stand around 4.30 for the season. Just as we said last week that this A’s matchup was a good one, his luck continues this next week as he draws the Braves on the road on June 16.

Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP) – 20% Owned – The target date for his return is now after the All Star Break so he can reenter the rotation with a consistent routine. He successfully threw a 30-pitch session on June 4 as he re-strengthens his arm and gets his pitch count up. Monitor his rehab starts closely for command, but his upside is solid, especially given that he’ll pitch for the Mets (assuming he isn’t traded).

Jonathon Niese (PIT, SP) – 16% Owned – Niese has a 1.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through the past 30 days and hasn’t lost since May 9^th. Ray Searage has been known to work magic, and perhaps Niese has hit a bit of a sustainable groove here as he’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts. He’ll be tested in this next week though, as his next start comes at home against the Cardinals before a road matchup with the Cubs.

Lucas Giolito (WAS, SP) – 15% Owned – Giolito just struck out 12 in his latest start, ho-hum. Actually, it isn’t ho-hum, as he has really turned it on in his last two starts after running high walk totals and failing to strike out more than six batters in an outing all season until then. His past two starts now have seen him allow one earned run over 13 innings with two walks and 20 strikeouts. If he can build on this then he may not be long for the minors.

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 13% Owned – Guerra has now posted three quality starts in a row (though he hasn’t gotten a win for his troubles), meaning folks are starting to pay attention. While his 4.34 SIERA says expectations should be tempered against his current 3.31 ERA, he is doing a good job of getting grounders, limiting walks, and missing bats when he needs to. He makes for a decent deep-league streamer against the Giants in friendly San Francisco on June 15.

Blake Snell (TB, SP) – 12% Owned – It’s been a few weeks since including him, so here’s your reminder. He just struck out 13 over 5 2/3 innings in his latest start, and has now allowed three runs in his past three starts with 29 strikeouts against six walks in only 16 2/3 innings. Well, we’re waiting.

Alex Cobb (TB, SP) – 12% Owned – Nothing new here: his bullpen sessions have ramped up to 35 pitches and he finally started throwing breaking balls, with everyone eyeing July as the return date.

Alex Reyes (STL, SP) – 8% Owned – Reyes took a step back in his latest start, lasting only 1 2/3 innings before leaving with four earned runs to his name. Of course, four of the five outs he recorded were via strikeout because that’s what he does. Before that start he had allowed only two runs in 15 innings with an impressive 26 strikeouts. He’ll be an electric arm at some point, but the Cards will probably want to see some more consistency with his control and poise before feeling forced into a call-up.

Chase Anderson (MIL, SP) – 7% Owned – Anderson’s past 30 days have seen him notch three wins and strike out 25 batters in 31 innings to the tune of a 2.03 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. While he’s getting a bit lucky, he also hasn’t walked a batter in his last three starts, which helps one create some good fortune. His 5.11 May FIP and 4.55 ERA had a .188 BABIP behind it, and so far he has a .129 BABIP in June which fuelds the 0.73 ERA. Just be aware of this. His next start is scheduled for June 13 on the road against the Giants.

Sean Manaea (OAK, SP) – 6% Owned – Manaea follow up consecutive quality starts with a five-run outing against the Brewers, with all five runs coming on two Chris Carter homers. Outside of that he was solid, walking two while striking out six. It wasn’t all that long ago that folks were swooning over his potential, and despite some early scuffles he has looked serviceable lately as he irons out the kinks. His next start is scheduled for June 13 at home against the Rangers, making for a tough assignment.

John Lamb (CIN, SP) – 3% Owned – Lamb has now thrown two straight one-run games (one earned, that is) where he’s gone at least seven innings in two tough draws (@COL, vs. STL). He won’t strike out enough to dazzle owners, but he’s still capable of twirling quality starts with soft contact and grounders. His next start is a solid one against the A’s at home on June 12 before a road start against the Astros.

Chris Rusin (COL, SP) – 1% Owned – His 2-4 record, 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are going to dissuade most owners from giving him a moment of their time, but they just might be missing something. He does have his numbers tilted a bit with some bullpen appearances, but he still has a 3.58 FIP as a starter (and 3.21 overall!) which warrants attention. In deep NL-only leagues, Rusin should not just be discarded as some scrub who has to deal with Coors Field.

Zach Eflin (PHI, SP) – 1% Owned – He’s being called up with the injury to Vince Velasquez, though his first start is in Toronto (ugh). He currently holds a 2.90 ERA and 0.88 WHIP to go with 55 strikeouts and 11 walks in 68 1/3 innings down in Triple-A, so he has shown that he’s ready for the next level. The Phillies are looking forward, so if he performs well then he could stick around for the foreseeable future.

Miguel Gonzalez (CWS, SP) – 1% Owned – Gonzalez has performed well enough to give the White Sox a solid option that allows for them to move along from the Mat Latos experience. When James Shields was brought in there were some questions as to his security within the rotation, though Latos’ struggles made the decision pretty easy. Gonzalez’s past 30 days have seen him strike out 24 in 29 1/3 innings, notching three quality starts to go with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Easily worth a look in deep AL-only formats.

Daniel Mengden (OAK, SP) – 0% Owned/Unavailable in Yahoo – His line in Double-A this season: 23 innings (four starts), 2-0 record, 28 strikeouts, 0.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

His line in Triple-A: 45 1/3 innings (seven starts), 3-1 record, 39 strikeouts, 1.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

His debut on Saturday against the Reds saw him take the loss, allowing two runs on six hits and four walks with five strikeouts. Certainly a solid effort for your first go-around, but obviously we're in deep territory here.

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