Week 10 Rankings Analysis - Pierre Camus vs. Industry Consensus

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It finally happened. I think. Ezekiel Elliott will finally come out of double-secret probation and miss an actual game. Does that mean I'm all in on Alfred Morris? Hardly. Dak Prescott on the other hand... and you may be surprised at which receiver benefits most.

As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week. In other words, it's where I zig when the others zag.

Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or incoherent ramblings related to fantasy sports, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the conversation.

Editor's note: Purchase any NFL Lineup Optimizer pass (including daily DFS cheat sheets), and you also get access to NBA and NHL Optimizers and DFS cheat sheets.

 

Week 10 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

Matthew Stafford has been on fire lately, averaging 365 yards in his last three games. He now faces the Cleveland Browns, who yield the fourth-highest TD% in the league. Their overall defensive numbers have improved, but when you look at the schedule they've played, you may realize that it could be a lot worse once they actually face a high-end QB. Stafford has rekindled his connection with Marvin Jones and the O-line is protecting him better. He should stay in the top 10 for the remainder of this season.

Dak Prescott is going to finally, maybe, probably face life without Zeke. At this point, I'll believe it when I see it, but all signs point to Ezekiel Elliott's suspension sticking until December 1st at the very least. That means more passing for the Cowboys, but even better for Prescott's value, more running opportunities near the end zone. He already has four rushing TD this season. Without their workhorse, Prescott could keep increasing that production and sustain the highest of floors among all quarterbacks.

Jared Goff is playing lights-out right now and has earned his way into QB1 status. He ranks as the 10th overall fantasy QB. This week's matchup isn't quite as easy as the Giants, but it may be the last chance to roll him out before a brutal schedule the rest of the way. The Texans have suffered injuries to their best defensive players and played leaky pass defense since the bye week, dropping to ninth-worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs. Goff should have an easy time racking up yards this week, but you may want to sell-high after Week 10. He faces the Vikings, Saints, Cardinals, Eagles, and Seahawks over the next five weeks.

 

Deviation from expert consensus

I already covered Eli Manning and Mitch Trubisky in yesterday's article, so I'll mention Philip Rivers. The Jags have the best pass defense in the league and we all acknowledge that. They also came into this season with the second-easiest strength of schedule and it hasn't changed for the worse. Rivers is not someone you want to start, but I don't see this as a three-pick game for him either. It'll be a battle of the running games, which is why I don't have Jacksonville as my top defense or Rivers as my worst quarterback.

C.J. Beathard doesn't belong on the field as a starting quarterback. He may one day, but he's just not ready yet. Obviously his coach knows this, which is why Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch decided to pull the trigger on the Jimmy Garoppolo deal. While they aren't in a hurry to expose Jimmy G to the harsh reality of this year's Niners offense, Beathard will keep trotting out there, but he's a complete avoid, even in two-QB leagues. His -229 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) is twice as bad as Brian Hoyer.

 

Week 10 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

This week finally has another matchup of elite RBs in Melvin Gordon vs. Leonard Fournette. I give the edge to Gordon as always due to pass-catching proficiency. Speaking of, Jerick McKinnon will start making regular appearances in this slot, even in standard league rankings. He's already ranking as a top-20 RB for the season despite not starting until Week 5.

On another note, it pains me to put Carlos Hyde as a top-10 RB, especially when I just lambasted the Niners and their passing game, but someone has to get the checkdowns and goal-line work. The Giants actually defend pass-catching running backs well, so this reflects his scoring potential more so than his floor as a runner/receiver this week.

 

Deviation from expert consensus

Matt Forte was going to be a great play this week until he decided to hurt himself again. When will he learn? Bilal Powell is ranked generously due to the matchup and the opposite direction these teams are trending. Tampa may decide to take the tanking route at this point, while Todd Bowles probably would like to keep fighting to keep his job.

It surprises me to see C.J. Anderson even listed as high as 26 among the other experts. He's quickly fading into obscurity, despite ranking as one of the league's most efficient running backs. He is one of the most game script dependent backs in the game and this game could see the Broncos down immediately to Tom Brady and the Pats. He's also limited due to an ankle injury, so strike him off your list of flex plays for this week.

 

Week 10 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

This list is getting fairly predictable on a weekly basis, but Adam Thielen pops in this week. He is ahead of Stefon Diggs for the simple reason that the Redskins allow twice as many points to slot receivers as outside receivers. Don't take my word for it.

 

Deviation from expert consensus

I don't have faith in Brett Hundley. None whatsoever. That doesn't mean Jordy Nelson can't break free for a touchdown on occasion still. He faces cornerback Kyle Fuller, who allows 1.68 yards per route covered on the year. Unless you're in a shallow league or happen to have three better receivers, he needs to stay in your starting lineup.

Corey Davis hasn't shown up on the stat sheet much, but his playing time is ramping up. He saw a 75% snap share last week and could increase that again in Week 10. The Bengals allow a greater share of receptions to secondary and tertiary receivers, so if we assume they treat Rishard Matthews as the WR1, Davis could have some success against Pacman.

I expanded this section a bit to include Terrance Williams, who I alluded to in the intro. He's never been a target hog by any stretch of the imagination, but he's trending in the right direction. Williams saw nine targets last week and caught all of them for 141 yards. Williams now has 40 targets on the year, whereas slot receiver Cole Beasley only has 37. He's got just an OK matchup against the Falcons' secondary, but could be relied on more heavily with Zeke out and Dez Bryant questionable.

Emmanuel Sanders is still gimpy, but even if he plays he has Brock Osweiler at QB. I don't care if it's New England's underachieving defense, I am avoiding until Paxton Lynch takes the reins. Next year. I mean next year.

 

Week 10 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

You likely didn't foresee a rookie tight end regularly cracking the top five weekly rankings, but then again you also couldn't have foreseen Odell Beckham fracturing his ankle in Week 5. Evan Engram will be the No. 2 target for whoever plays QB for the Giants the rest of this season and has a great matchup against the 49ers, so he's worth every bit of scrilla you put down for him.

In retrospect, having Cameron Brate this high might be overly optimistic. O.J. Howard is almost equaling his snap share these days and Jameis Winston is out. I have the feeling that Ryan Fitzpatrick will rely on his veteran tight end quite a bit, just as he did in Week 6 when Brate caught six passes for 76 yards and a touchdown.

Tyler Kroft sneaks into the Top 10 because he continues to hover around that low-end TE1 status. Over the last five weeks, he's been the overall TE15 in PPR leagues. Over the last three weeks, he's the TE8. With Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Jared Cook all on bye, he makes an ideal streamer if available.

 

Deviation from expert consensus

Julius Thomas finally showed a pulse last week, so I'll give benefit of the doubt to him. After Gase fired off napalm in his press conference before shipping Jay Ajayi out of town, I think Thomas clearly got the message since he was looking very expendable before Week 9. Thomas doesn't have an ideal matchup, but as a TE2 in a league where you're facing a bye situation or an injury, he showed he still has some upside.

Charles Clay is coming off injury and not assured of playing just yet. Throw in new red zone weapon Kelvin Benjamin and I don't see him getting the same number of targets even when he is 100%.

I don't love Jack Doyle this week against the Steelers, but 41 targets over the last four weeks might be an indicator that he's still a huge part of this offense, regardless of how bad it is at times.

 

More Week 10 Lineup Prep


Check out all of RotoBaller's 2017 fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.