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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/28/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, June 28th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, June 28th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Washington Nationals (-150) @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 10.5
For how bad of a season the Tigers are having, they have been dreadful at home with an 11-27 record. Against the spread, they are 10-28 which shows when they lose as underdogs, it is usually by two or more runs. The Nationals have been around the league average on the road, with a 19-21 record. Recently, the Nationals are starting to heat up winning eight of their last ten, while the Tigers are still stuck in a neverending slump, losing seven in a row and 11 of their last 12.
Anibal Sanchez has been a more effective pitcher on the road this season, boasting a 3.89 ERA, while Norris has struggled at home to the tune of a 5.10 ERA. Barring a complete breakdown and lack of motivation, the Nationals should win this game and every game this series pretty handily.
My Pick: Nationals -1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
O/U: 10.5
I'm willing to take a chance on the underdog here due to recent form and the pitching matchup. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Pirates winning seven of their last ten and the Brewers only managing three wins out of their last ten. The Pirates are coming in hot after taking two of three on the road against the Astros. Meanwhile, the Brewers lost two of three to the Mariners at home.
Jhoulys Chacin has struggled for the Brewers as of late, allowing a 10.50 ERA in the last 30 days, and will be in tough against a red-hot Pirates offense. Chris Archer has endured an up and down season but has returned to his former self on occasion. I won't say that Archer isn't going to cause us some headaches tonight, but in the end, I think that Chacin will be a bigger detriment to the Brewers.
My Pick: Pirates +145
St.Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (-115)
O/U: 8.5
In my article last Friday, I showed how Eric Lauer won't get the respect he deserves because of a couple of rough outings at Coors Field. The Padres proceeded to lose a 2-1 game where Lauer allowed only one earned run. My point is, the Lauer praise rang true, but we will hope the Padres offense can get something going tonight against Michael Wacha. Wacha has struggled this season, giving up a 5.59 ERA, and seeing his team lose in eight of his 14 starts. The Padres have a .500 record at home this season, while the Cardinals have only managed a 15-21 record on the road.
My Pick: Padres -115
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-105)
O/U: 8
It's always good when the total goes to 8 at Oracle Park, as the pitcher-friendly field has been giving me some tough beats all season by barely going over on 7 and 7.5 totals. The total has stayed below 8 in three of Shaun Anderson's four starts at home this season, with the other game being a push in a 6-2 loss to these same Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly hasn't fared as well away from home this season, but he gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly park much like his home field in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have won both games that Kelly has started against the Giants so far this season, with both games being low-scoring affairs.
If these teams games against each other all season is any indication, this should be a low-scoring pitching duel. This game could go either way, but with Kelly winning both games against the Giants this season and Anderson losing both games to the Diamondbacks, I will fall on the side of Arizona. If you fall in the category of someone who thinks it can't happen a third time you can fade the pick at your own risk, but the under feels pretty safe to me as well.
My Pick: Under 8, Diamondbacks (-105)
Nate's YTD picks: 43-26-2
