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Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 15 of the 2025 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 15 lineups?
We're officially in the first round of the fantasy playoffs—every decision matters. Every point matters. Tight end can be a difficult position to get right week-to-week for fantasy managers. We'll check in on Harold Fannin Jr.'s breakout and talk about Dalton Kincaid's elite efficiency season.
How worried should fantasy managers be with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride? Which streamers have the best matchups? Which full-time starters are at the most significant risk for busting? This article will answer all of those questions to get your fantasy lineup optimized at the tight end position in hopes of advancing to round two of the fantasy football playoffs.
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Just How Worried Should Fantasy Managers Be About Trey McBride and Brock Bowers?
Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are two must-start tight ends, but in the first round of the fantasy football playoffs, they both have some of the worst tight end matchups in the NFL. Now, that doesn't mean we're getting crazy and benching either one of them, but they are at risk of busting. Let's start with McBride.
He and the Arizona Cardinals are facing the Houston Texans. They are allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and have yet to give up a single top-12 week to an opposing signal-caller. Not surprisingly, that lack of quarterback play has trickled down to their pass catchers, specifically the tight ends. They've allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends, giving up just 7.4 half-PPR PPG.
That obviously isn't great, but it gets worse: the tight ends Houston has faced have otherwise scored 10.2 half-PPR PPG against their other non-Houston opponents. George Kittle is the only tight end who has scored double-digit points against them all year. They held Brenton Strange to 9.1 half-PPR points, Mark Andrews to 3.2, Tyler Warren to 9.7, and Travis Kelce to 1.3.
Josh Allen is the only quarterback they've faced who has had over 250 passing yards. He had 253. This is despite playing Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence (twice), and Bo Nix. Only four quarterbacks had two touchdown passes. Zero has had three. Five have had zero touchdowns. The matchups significantly lower McBride's ceiling and put him on bust alert despite his historic season.
Whereas McBride has a quarterback playing really well, Bowers doesn't have that luxury. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent and has been a top-12 quarterback in eight straight weeks. Geno Smith is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He's been awful all year and is in danger of missing the Week 15 matchup, which would put Kenny Pickett under center. While it's possible he's an upgrade over Smith, I'd advise caution. Fantasy managers also thought Max Brosmer couldn't be worse than J.J. McCarthy, and then, well, he was.
Smith has just four games this season with two or more touchdowns and four with zero. He also has seven games with fewer than 200 yards and just four with more than 250. The Raiders play the Eagles this week, which is even worse than the matchup McBride has. Philadelphia has allowed the third-fewest points to tight ends this season at just 6.6 half-PPR PPG. Philly has only allowed two tight ends to score double-digits, Cole Kmet (11.1) and Evan Engram (11.3).
The tight ends that Philly has faced are scoring 9.5 half-PPR PPG in their other 14 games, not against Philadelphia. That average drops to just 6.6 against Philadelphia. They held Jake Ferguson to 4.8 and 8.6 half-PPR points in their two games against Dallas. The next best tight end they played was Kelce, who scored 8.1. Given Bowers' talent, it's rare to see him outside the top three for any weekly rankings, but I have him fifth this week. I'd be very nervous locking him in, but few fantasy managers will have better options.
Harold Fannin Jr.'s Breakout and Ascension to No. 1 Tight End Status for the Browns
Fannin ran fewer routes and played fewer snaps than David Njoku for the first five weeks of the season. Week 6 is when we started to see a change in how the team deployed these two tight ends. This is the first week Fannin played more snaps and ran more routes than Njoku. He made another jump in playing time and route share the past two weeks.
From Weeks 1-12, Fannin did not have a single game with a route share of 75%. In Week 13, his route share was 90% and in Week 14, it was 86%. In the chart below, you can see just how Fannin's fantasy production has changed with the increasing opportunity.
| Time Frame | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RYPG | YPRR | X-Half-PPR PPG | Half-PPR PPG |
| Weeks 1-5 |
56.5% | 13.7% | 23.0% | 5.4 | 4.2 | 34.6 | 1.48 | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| Weeks 6-12 |
68.5% | 22.4% | 28.0% | 6.8 | 4.5 | 48.2 | 1.95 | 10.9 | 8.2 |
| Weeks 13-14 |
87.0% | 22.1% | 22.0% | 7.5 | 5.5 | 78.5 | 2.34 | 13.1 | 16.1 |
His breakout over the past few weeks is tied to an increase in his route share, but it also coincides with Shedeur Sanders becoming Cleveland's starting quarterback. In Weeks 1-11, before Sanders became the starter, Cleveland averaged 36 pass attempts, 20.6 completions, 179.9 yards, and 0.9 touchdowns per game. While their pass attempts per game average decreased to 29.3 with Sanders, their completions dropped to 17; the other categories increased.
Harold Fannin Jr. Primed to Continue Late-Season Surge https://t.co/hyIdR8pdBn
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 10, 2025
Sanders is averaging 240.7 yards per game and 1.6 touchdowns per game. That has unlocked Fannin and given him a real ceiling. While his target rate and share have decreased due to the improvement at quarterback, Fannin's efficiency has significantly increased. Believe it or not, there's even more upside to Fannin's fantasy potential. If Sanders's volume gets to the level it was with Dillon Gabriel and Joe Flacco, Fannin could become even more productive.
Dalton Kincaid is a Stud and a Must Start
Considering how dreadful the Buffalo receivers have been, it's a little surprising Kincaid hasn't played more. He doesn't have a single game this season where his snap share has been above 55%. Some of that is due to his injuries and a likely attempt to keep him healthy. That doesn't entirely explain why his route share has never been above 60%, however. Simply put, given his elite efficiency, he needs to be on the field more if he's healthy.
45 tight ends have 25 or more targets this season. Kincaid ranks first in target rate (28%). He's also first in yards per route run by a wide margin. He's averaging 3.30 yards per route run. The next closest is Tucker Kraft at 2.57, who is on season-ending IR. The next closest active tight end is Strange at 2.07. Kincaid is also first in yards per target (11.93) and is third in yards after the catch per reception (7.39).
His first-down per route run rate is 16.2%. Colby Parkinson is second at 13.1% and Kittle is third at 11.9%. He's averaging 0.64 fantasy points per route run. Only Kraft is over 0.50. Simply put, Kincaid has played like one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. His issues have been his availability and his playing time, even when he is healthy.
Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills with 5⃣ receiving TDs in 2025
📲 Stream with NFL+pic.twitter.com/Gk7Y6IIX91
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 7, 2025
He's a favorite of Allen's when the team gets near the end zone. Despite his limited opportunities, his elite efficiency makes him a must-start tight end anytime he's active. That's especially true this week with a plus-matchup against the Patriots and a game that could be high-scoring. If Kincaid's route share increases alongside his health, Kincaid could be a league-winner down the stretch.
Streamer Tight Ends to Avoid this Week Due to Matchup
- Hunter Henry, New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
- Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Streamer Tight Ends to Target this Week Due to Matchup
- Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
- Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals
- Theo Johnson, New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Starting Tight Ends with Bust Potential Due to Matchup
- Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
- Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles
- Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
Starting Tight Ends with Spike-Week Potential Due to Matchup
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
- Juwan Johnson, New Orleans vs Carolina Panthers
Week 15 Rankings
1. George Kittle vs Titans
2. Trey McBride at Texans
3. Dalton Kincaid at Patriots
4. Travis Kelce vs Chargers
5. Brock Bowers at Eagles
6. Mark Andrews at Bengals
7. Kyle Pitts Sr. at Buccaneers
8. Harold Fannin Jr. at Browns
9. Jake Ferguson vs Vikings
10. Tyler Warren at Seahawks
11. Theo Johnson vs Commanders
12. Juwan Johnson vs Panthers
13. Isaiah Likely at Bengals
14. Brenton Strange vs Jets
15. Dalton Schultz vs Cardinals
16. Colston Loveland vs Browns
17. Hunter Henry vs Bills
18. Colby Parkinson vs Lions
19. Dallas Goedert vs Raiders
20. Darren Waller at Steelers
21. T.J. Hockenson at Cowboys
22. A.J. Barner vs Colts
23. Oronde Gadsden II at Chiefs
24. Mike Gesicki vs Ravens
25. Pat Freiermuth vs Dolphins
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