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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 17: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

I'm still grinding MLB bets every day and if you're here reading this right now, I assume that you are, too! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 17th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

George Kirby o5.5K vs. LAA (-135 DK)

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? Seattle starters have won us this prop the last two nights and Kirby should keep it rolling. He has six and eight strikeouts against the Halos already in two prior match-ups, too.

Max Scherzer o7.5K vs. ATL (-130)

Anytime we get Mad Max at 7.5, I am interested. Despite getting only six strikeouts last time out, I still have him projected over eight today against this K-prone Atlanta team. He’s gotten them for nine and 11 already this year and will be geared up for this one against the defending champs and division rivals.

Jordan Montgomery o17.5 outs vs. COL (+105)

Monty has looked great since coming to St. Louis, and as my buddy @TorresTakes would say, it seems like the Cardinals are working their “Devil Magic” yet again on another left-handed pitcher who seemed mediocre at best.

It’s not often you find plus odds on a decent pitcher to go six innings, and Monty is fresh off six beautiful innings against the Brew Crew.

Tyler Mahle to record a win (+135)

The Twins are -195 on the money line and blanked the Royals 9-0 last night. Mahle is coming off six solid shutout innings against the Angels and has tossed six innings in each start for Minnesota since coming over in the trade, getting the win in three of them.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

BAL +1.5 (-135 DK)

The Blue Jays simply can’t solve the Orioles this year, and after last night’s loss, they’re now 2-6 against Baltimore and have lost five straight.

Remember that Baltimore is the best team on the run line in the league this year. Austin Voth is pitching better, and Toronto is rolling with Ross Stripling coming off the IL. I’m going to keep riding the O’s.

TBR ML (+120 DK)

The Rays have won the first two games of this series, despite the Yankees having their top two pitchers going in those games. Now, the Rays have the advantage as they turn to veteran Corey Kluber to close out the sweep against the Yankees’ worst starter, Domingo German. New York’s bats are as cold as ice right now.

CHC -1.5 (+110 DK)

I’m not sure I should be this optimistic about a relatively bad Cubs team, but the Nationals are much worse. And what I am really targeting here is a major imbalance in pitching with the Cubs rolling out a red-hot Drew Smyly and the Nats have to go with Cory Abbott. Smyly has been terrific, throwing 11.2 shutout innings in his last two starts, while Abbott has surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two outings.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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