RADIO
Justin Carter breaks down game tape of Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Adam Humphries' recent performance to help fantasy football owners get a sense of his value heading into Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season.
Adam Humphries had one of the more surprising two-touchdown games of the season on Sunday against the Panthers...or was it? Humphries now has 76 or more yards in three of the past four games, and he's been targeted at least eight times in each of the past three games. He appears to be a player whose role and usage are trending upwards at this point in the season.
So, maybe Adam Humphries is a solid player to add to your fantasy teams this week, and maybe his recent play suggests that he's in line to play a significant role moving forward?
Or maybe it doesn't! Let's look at his game tape from Week 9 plus is usage and other factors and figure out where we should be standing on the Tampa Bay wideout. Is he worth a spot on your fantasy team? Is he startable? Should he stay on waivers? Let's dig in and find out.
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Adam Humphries: The Tape Tells All
Background Information
Sunday featured one of my favorite things, which was a two-touchdown performance from a player I was forced to start on my injury-riddled dynasty team. Thanks, Adam!
I held onto Humphries all of last year and this year as I waited for some clarity to emerge with the WR2 role in Tampa Bay. DeSean Jackson's age and Chris Godwin's inconsistent utilization kept Humphries on my team, and some bye week issues led to me playing him on Sunday.
Part of why I did that is his snap count over the course of the season. While Godwin has seen is snaps vacillate between the 50 and 70 percent marks, Humphries has been on the field for at least 70 percent of the team's offensive snaps all but one time since Week 3. Part of being successful at football is being on the field, and Humphries is second among Tampa Bay wide receivers in snap share this year.
As far as targets go, he's just a tad bit under DeSean Jackson for the second on the team in target share, but he's seen that number rising over the course of the season. He is a pretty distant fifth in air yards, which worries me, especially if you have interest in playing him in standard leagues where the potential for him to rack up some short catches won't help you nearly as much. Per PlayerProfiler, Humphries' average target depth is just 6.1 yards, ranking him 104th among wide receivers. His catch rate of 71.4 percent helps make up for that in some ways though, as he's at least catching these shallow targets.
Adam Humphries's Game Tape
On Sunday, Humphries caught eight passes for 82 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Let's look at and analyze some of those catches.
Here's one from late in the first quarter:
Pretty simple little drag route here for Humphries, who makes the catch without a lot of room. This one was played well by the Panthers -- the linebacker sticks right on Humphries after he cuts inside, and Humphries doesn't have the foot speed to get separation there and make anything happen.
What Humphries lacks in speed -- a 36th percentile mark in the 40 among wide receivers -- he makes up a little with some craftiness and footwork. That Humphries is able to take that quick step backward, regather himself, and charge ahead for a first down on this play is impressive. It's not a big yardage play, but he keeps the Tampa Bay drive going, giving himself more chances to make more plays. (He'd catch two more short passes on this drive for 12 yards. Not big, but in full PPR that's an extra 3.2 points made possible by his ability to get the first down on the above play.)
Okay, let's look at those two touchdowns.
Here's the first one:
Humphries does a little spin move here that is definitely not the world's swiftest one. If we talk about a guy like Tarik Cohen running like he's in Madden, this is Adam Humphries making a spin move like he's in Madden 1994. But it works, and he winds up creating enough space to get the easy touchdown as he's slanting back in toward the middle of the field.
Here's the other touchdown:
Another slant here by Humphries, and another example of his ability to absorb contact and keep going. There are a few times on this play that he should go down, but some good running and a great job redirecting his body when he was inside the 10-yard line puts him on a path to the end zone. I'm also impressed by the momentum he carries while being tackled, both on this play and on others. You think Humphries is heading down short of that white line, but he pushes through, letting the force of the defender help carry him to six points.
The Fantasy Impact
Adam Humphries isn't going to be a league winner. He doesn't have the physical makeup to be a dominant receiver and he's not fast enough to make some of the plays out of the slot that the top slot guys can make.
But with very little semblance of a run game and Ryan Fitzpatrick's dedication to throwing the football, there's space for a hard-nosed receiver like Humphries to succeed. He's catching easy passes -- in routes and cross routes and slant routes are some of the highest percentage throws that a quarterback can make, especially when you have a veteran quarterback like Ryan Fitzpatrick.
At this point, owners in deeper leagues should have some interest in Humphries. That recent target share and his developing rapport with Fitzpatrick are big, as is the fact that he outsnapped Chris Godwin 55-37 on Sunday. I know Humphries lacks the upside that made everyone run out and grab Godwin as a sleeper candidate before this season began, but that doesn't mean he's not worth grabbing now that he's growing into a solid and consistent role for Tampa Bay. He's got a shot to be a solid PPR flex player with how much he's being targeted and how many of those targets he's converting into receptions.
