RADIO
Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential.
But it can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.
This article is about the latter. Let's look at four NBA players who changed teams this offseason and won't be finding immediate success in their new digs.
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Montrezl Harrell (F/C, Los Angeles Lakers)
Harrell doesn't have to move far to his new home, as he just changes locker rooms in the Staples Center.
With the Clippers, Harrell was basically a super bench player, averaging 27.8 minutes per game last year while making just two starts. He put up 18.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game and had a usage rate of 25.7 percent.
My issue with him moving to the Lakers is that his role doesn't seem to change much. Marc Gasol and Anthony Davis are your starting four and five, and last year the Lakers only had three players who played 1000 or more minutes with a usage rate over 20 percent. LeBron James and Anthony Davis take so many of the possessions here, and while Harrell will still be a productive piece, it's hard to see him getting an offensive workload that would lead to an increase in productive now that he's a Laker. Heck, it's hard to even see an equal performance to last year's numbers, especially when front court touches aren't the place where opportunities exist on this team. (Dennis Schroder is the free agent addition that actually interests me for L.A., by the way.)
Danilo Gallinari (F, Atlanta Hawks)
Gallinari's production should still be mostly fine, but I don't love this move from a statistical angle, as the Hawks have a crowded wing rotation, with John Collins set to start at the four and a couple of young players -- De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish -- who'll need to find minutes as well.
Last season saw Gallo post the highest usage rate of his career at 24.6 percent, something that doesn't feel replicable on this Hawks team as it's constructed.
He's still going to take plenty of open threes and grab five or six rebounds per game. You still want him on a fantasy team. But the last couple of years saw Gallinari posting some pretty big lines each night, and now we'll probably see more of 2017-18 Gallinari with better efficiency.
Again, keep drafting him. I got him a pick 7.12 in our staff draft, and I felt really good about that. But his ceiling is definitely capped this season, and I probably wouldn't start to consider him until around Pick 65 in redraft leagues.
Kris Dunn (G, Atlanta Hawks)
Averaging 24.9 minutes per game last year was a big part of why Dunn's production dropped off a cliff from the year before:
With enough minutes, Dunn produces some numbers, especially in terms of steals, but his move to Atlanta is not going to give him those kinds of minutes that he was getting on the 17-18 and 18-19 Bulls.
In Atlanta, Dunn will be stuck behind Trae Young and Rajon Rondo at point guard, and while he could see some minutes at the two or three, it's more likely that we see Dunn as someone who plays under 20 minutes per game and only really provides value if you need a source of steals in a deep league most nights, though if Rondo (or Young) miss time, he'll have some streaming value in shallower formats. But just as a general tip, don't count on a third-string point guard.
Harry Giles III (F/C, Portland Trail Blazers)
I'm a big fan of Harry Giles. I'm pretty sure if you search the RotoBaller archives, you'll find multiple examples of me talking Giles up. I thought the former Duke product could have been a tough defender on the inside for Sacramento, but health issues have really limited him over the course of his NBA career. When he's been on the floor, he can score, rebound, and is a good passer for his position.
But the Kings realized trusting that he'd be on the floor isn't in their best long term interest, and now, and in November he signed as a free agent in Portland, where his path to minutes will remain murky. Jusuf Nurkic is the clearly defined starter. Enes Kanter is his backup, a good offensive player who is limited defensively. And Zach Collins is still around too.
At this point, it seems like the best thing to go about Giles is to just cut our losses. I still think he has potential, but that potential might not be realized, as "journeyman big" seems like the best we can expect from Giles at this point in his NBA career. He should be off of your fantasy radar this season.
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