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The Daily Divide: Week Two DFS


Matt and Nathan each offer cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments and debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. Matt probably makes more good points than Nathan over the long haul though, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Nathan: "I’m not sure why I told Matt he could write the opening paragraph. I’m right way more than him. I mean, I did tell Matt to start Tyler Eifert last week, so I'm pretty much a genius." 

You can follow the great Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle -- and the just okay Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff. Nathan: "...Seriously?"

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week 2:

QB: Drew Brees vs TBB
Drew Brees will be in all of my cash games this weekend and you can't stop me. The Buccaneers defense was torn apart at home by rookie QB Marcus Mariota in Week One to the tune of a 209-4 line, while giving up over an 80% completion percentage. In Week Two, they travel to face one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Drew Brees. One of the most important factors in NFL DFS are the Vegas numbers, and the Saints are 10 point favorites on Bovada, projected to score 37.5 points. Those numbers mean a frustrating afternoon for the Buccaneers, equally so for those who fade Brees this week.

Matt: At home, underpriced almost everywhere, and everything you said. A rare case of you getting one right.


RB: Ameer Abdullah at MIN
I was a little weary of Ameer Abdullah coming into the season, but Abdullah out-touched Joique Bell by a count of 11-7 even in Week One. I think that gap will only progress as the season goes on, as they see Abdullah doing more with his touches. (In Week One, he out-gained Bell by a count of 94 to 41 total yards.) Abdullah is still fairly cheap, being priced around the RB25-30 range on DFS sites, and he faces a Vikings defense that was shredded by Carlos Hyde in Week One, who put a 26-168-2 line. Abdullah may not see as many touches as Hyde did, but I think he’ll at least see a repeat of his Week One usage.

Matt: Repeating his Week One usage would pay off his price easily enough, and there is the upside you mention of the Lions leaning his way sooner than later. Great roster filler in cash games. You’re on a roll.

 

WR: Cole Beasley at PHI
Cole Beasley may not be the sexiest of DFS picks this week, but he is in a plus matchup against the Eagles and the Cowboys are missing #1 receiver, Dez Bryant. The debate all week has been: who gets more targets with Dez out? Like most people, I don’t think just one person takes all the targets; it becomes more a target by committee. Last Week Beasley caught 4 balls for 49 yards on 6 targets. At a near minimum price on most sites, Beasley can easily pay off that price if his targets increase at all. Also, this matchup appears to be a projected shootout with the highest over/under of the weekend at 55 on Bovada. This is a game I want exposure to, and Beasley is the cheapest way to do that.

Matt: The potential is there in theory, and you’d like to hope there is a reasonable floor...but the reality is we’re not sure how this one shakes out. While you raise some really good points worthy of consideration, I may look a different direction this weekend, personally. (Not to quibble, but RB Lance Dunbar is actually cheaper. It wouldn’t shock me if Dunbar outscored Beasley this weekend, especially on full PPR sites, so I’m a little torn.)

 

TE: Robert Gronkowski at BUF
On a slate without Travis Kelce who played on Thursday, my options at tight end are: Gronk or punt. I’m going with the former and playing him everywhere I can. Rob Gronkowski has had lots of success facing his division rival Buffalo in his career, averaging 18.11 fantasy points, even in 0.5 PPR, in 7 games against the Bills. That’s over four more per game than against any other opponent! The Buffalo defense has continued to get better, but that hasn’t seemed to matter for Tom Brady or Gronk. Gronk provides a consistently high floor and ceiling, something that no other tight end offers,which is why I’m okay paying a premium for him this week (and nearly every other week).

Matt: (‘Robert?’ Hilarious.) I know it may seem chalk to mention the best TE in the league, but it is worth noting Gronk is always in consideration. Of course you steal him before I get the chance to write about him.

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week 2:

QB: Carson Palmer vs CHI
In Week one, Palmer was every bit the top 10 fantasy QB he was when healthy last year, completing 19 of 32 passes for a stellar 302-3 line against a hapless Saints defense. Palmer figures to be a top 10 fantasy QB until further notice, so take advantage of his DFS price discount while you can. On the road this week, he has the good fortune of facing off against the hapless Bears defense, fresh off a performance where they surrendered three passing TDs. Nathan mentioned Brees above; I can’t see myself using any QB other than Palmer or Brees in cash games this weekend. On a personal note, I’m a Bears fan with tickets to this game, and will have Palmer everywhere in my DFS lineups. The struggle is indeed real.

Nathan: I like Palmer this week. The two defenses he faces to start the season are indeed hapless. However, I wouldn’t really compare surrendering 3 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers to Carson Palmer the next week. But yeah, he is a solid play if you want to save a few bucks at QB this week.

 

RB: Marshawn Lynch at GB
Facing one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the league, Marshawn Lynch still put up over 4 YPC against the Rams in Week One on his way to a nice 18-73 line on the ground, adding 5-31 in the air. Lynch should find easier treading in Week Two against a Packers defense which just surrendered almost 6 YPC to Matt Forte, who rushed for 141 yards, adding a 5-25 line in the passing game. Lynch played over 80% of the team’s snaps in Week One, which is my way of reminding you all: he is the lynchpin of this offense. #SorryNotSorry. I’d probably be willing to pay up for Lynch this weekend, and I noticed his price even dropped a little on some sites.

Nathan: I like Lynch a lot this week. Per the snap data, Fred Jackson isn’t much of a threat to vulture points, as some may have been concerned (Then again, there may not be many Fred Jackson truthers left, like myself. Oh Well.) When these two teams played in the NFC championship game in January they combined for 50 total points, and I expect more of the same this weekend.

 

WR: Jarvis Landry at JAX
Jarvis Landry’s Week One fantasy points were padded by a 14 yard rush and a beautiful 69 yard punt return TD, events that likely won’t happen every week. However, even his 8-53 line in the passing game paid off his price nicely, especially on full PPR sites. His team high 12 targets almost fully doubled QB Ryan Tannehill’s second target. Week One seems to confirm what the second half of last season and the preseason has already told us: Tannehill loves throwing the ball to Landry. With his still underpriced value and against the Jaguars defense, I’m plugging Landry into my cash lineups confidently.

Nathan: Yup. Landry is a solid option this week, I’d just be wary of relying on the non-receiving stuff like you said, and eventually the Dolphins are going to get 1st round pick DeVante Parker involved, I’m not sure it will be this week, but eventually it is going to happen.

Matt rebuttal: Sometime between now and the 2017 season. I completely agree.

 

TE: Martellus Bennett vs ARI
The Cardinals have struggled mightily against physical and athletic TEs the last two years. This year, they get their first look against such a TE in Week Two, namely Martellus Bennett. Maybe they’ve shored up their (lack of) TE defense from year’s past, but even in that case, Bennett should see enough targets to pay off a nice floor of points in cash games. His volume-based floor, plus the possible matchup upside here makes him an ideal cash game candidate. Especially where his pricing is closer to the punt options than the middling priced options, I like this play a lot this weekend. 

Nathan: Ah, tight ends against Arizona. The lynchpin of DFS tbh. I actually hadn’t really looked at Bennett this week until reading this. Now on some sites, I love him. It kinda just depends on the gap between him and Gronk in pricing. If the gap is large enough, he becomes a solid play.

Update: Alshon Jeffery's hamstring tightened up in practice on Friday. Definitely a situation worth monitoring.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Eli Manning, Lamar Miller , Mark Ingram, Brandon Coleman, Antonio Brown, Tyler Eifert

Matt likes: Drew Brees, Danny Woodhead, Lamar Miller, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Jason Witten

 

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