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The Daily Divide: Week Five DFS


Matt and Nathan each offer Week 5 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. Matt probably makes more good points than Nathan though, over the long haul, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Nathan: I’m not sure why I told Matt he could write the opening paragraph. I’m right way more than him. I mean, I did recommend Tyler Eifert in Week One, so….I'm pretty much a genius.

You can follow the great Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle -- and the just okay Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff. Nathan: ...Seriously?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Five

QB: Philip Rivers vs PIT
Philip Rivers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season. However, he is being priced closer to Kirk Cousins and Michael Vick than Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers this week. Additionally, he has a plus matchup on Monday night against a Pittsburgh defense that is traveling cross country and has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season. If you don't want to pay up for Tom Brady, Rivers and his price provides some good lineup flexibility.

Stacking: Keenan Allen is a must stack if Stevie Johnson is out IMHO. Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates work as well for cheaper stacking options

Matt: It may be tough on some sites to untangle the puzzle of similarly priced QBs, but in a vacuum, I do like Rivers a lot this week.

 

RB: Jamaal Charles vs CHI
I love writing about players against the Bears. Both because they are a bad defense and it grinds Matt's gears. The Bears are middle of the road in regards to fantasy points against running backs, giving up the 13th most fantasy points so far this season. However, they have surrendered the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and how does Alex Smith score a lot of his fantasy points? By throwing to Jamaal Charles, that's how. Only fade Jamaal Charles if you enjoy losing money.

Matt: I’m starting to wonder if the Bears defense is sneakily not as...completely horrible as we think they may be. That that doesn’t matter here, though, as Jamaal Charles is a great play every week, let alone in plus matchups. 

 

WR: Larry Fitzgerald at DET
Larry Fitzgerald’s DFS price has yet to make any sense so far this season, and it continues this weekend. Fitzgerald is the WR2 overall through 4 weeks, yet is being priced around the WR10-12 range across sites. The Cardinals have a solid projected team total of 24 and they are 3 point favorites against the Lions this week. Fitzgerald will continue being a good DFS play until sites figure out he is a top 5 fantasy wide receiver this season. 

Stacking: Carson Palmer has been a DFS favorite of the Rittler so far this season, and while I prefer other quarterbacks this week, I have no problem with a Palmer/Fitz stack this week

Matt: Couldn’t be more with you.

 

TE: Gary Barnidge at BAL
Gary Barnidge is one of the hottest tight ends in football. No, you aren't dreaming, you're reading the Daily Divide. On an offense devoid of weapons at the wide receiver position, Barnidge has 5 or more targets in each of the first 4 games. Despite currently being the TE9 through 4 weeks, including back to back weeks with 22.50 and 19.50 PPR points respectively, Barnidge is still priced near or at the minimum on most sites. Barnidge is a cheap punt play that won't kill your lineup, even if he returns to being irrelevant, which I don't see happening this week.

Stacking: #NahWave on Josh McCown. Because he isn't good at football.

Matt: I’m always wary the word 'punt' anywhere in cash game suggestions, but his production and rock bottom pricing are both as attractive as...I don’t know. There’s gotta be a joke here somewhere

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Five

QB: Jay Cutler at KCC

The Chiefs are the most generous fantasy defense to opposing QBs, having already allowed a league leading 11 passing TDs. In the two games Cutler has finished this season, he scored between 14 and 18 fantasy points, averaging a 253-1.5 line. While those aren’t gaudy numbers, that does put you in the solid QB2 to fringe QB1 conversation and certainly wouldn’t kill you in a cash game. This is a bit of a matchup and pricing play, though unlike with some matchup/pricing plays, Cutler’s talent and success in Week Four without star WR Alshon Jeffery both speak to a likely floor not all matchup/pricing plays offer.

Stacking: In cash games I’ll be playing Cutler without any other Bears. Martellus Bennett makes an intriguing (and rare TE) stack option in GPPs, as does Jeffery if he plays.

Nathan: I like this play more if we have any idea that Jeffery is healthy and playing

Note: Jeffery is marked as questionable, but did not practice Friday.

 

RB: Danny Woodhead vs PIT

Even in half PPR formats, Danny Woodhead is averaging RB1 numbers on the season, with weekly finishes as follows: RB5, RB11, RB41, RB14. There is the one bad week in there, but his overall usage and performance indicate a floor and upside you rarely see available for his pricing point. It’s improbable Danny Woodhead will have any 30+ fantasy point outings this year, but it’s likely he’ll have plenty of 15-20 fantasy point outings. I wrote this in the Divide a couple weeks ago: “Eventually, rookie Melvin Gordon may get more involved. Eventually, Woodhead’s DFS price may rise to match his production Until something changes, though, Woodhead makes for a terrific weekly DFS play." We’re still waiting.

Nathan: I'm all over San Diego this week. Boom

 

WR: Julian Edelman at DAL

With 30 receptions through three games and a near 80% snap share, Julian Edelman is the epitome of a high floor player, very involved in his team’s offense. His lowest target total came in Week Three, and he was targeted the 15th most of any player that weekend. His fantasy finish was as WR21 that weekend, but his other two finishes were as WR5 and WR3. (His WR5 performance in full PPR was a WR10 finish in half PPR, so be cognizant of site scoring here.) His price has risen to match his consistent production, but he still makes a fine cash play on most sites as a very involved “WR1” in one of the league’s best 2015 offenses to date.

Stacking: Tom Brady makes an fantastic cash game play this weekend.

Nathan: Edelman is a good cash game play. GPP stackers have a tough decision this week whether to go Brady/Lewis, Brady/Edelman or Brady/Gronk

Matt: You're suddenly more obsessed with talking about QBs and pass-catching RB stacks than I am with your Mom.

 

TE: Owen Daniels at OAK
Opposing tight ends have finished no worse than as TE2 on the weekend when facing the Raiders, and have already been the top performer twice. Through four weeks, the Raiders have allowed the most targets, receptions, yards, and TDs opposing TEs. In “goal to go” opportunities - where Owen Daniels has thrived of late with touchdowns in consecutive games - they have allowed the third most opportunities. This all begs the inescapable question: could Oakland guard Nathan’s Mom? I’m rolling out Owen Daniels this weekend to find out.


Nathan: Are you saying my Mom has a tight end? ....but yeah, Daniels is another nice option if you are tempting fate and fading the Gronk.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Justin Forsett, Todd Gurley, Keenan Allen, Willie Snead, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski

Matt likes: Carson Palmer, Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, James Jones; most Patriots (Tom Brady, Dion Lewis, Gronk)

 

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