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The Cut List – Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 14

Khalil Herbert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

For most fantasy football leagues, there is officially one game left in the regular season. There may be some teams that have unofficially checked out if they're out of the playoffs, but I'm a big believer in the "you play to win the game" mantra. As we're reaching the end of the season, there aren't many surprises or mysteries anymore. Fantasy managers know who all of the players are and by Week 14, have acted accordingly.

Any player listed on the Cut List isn't a player that needs to be cut. They're just cuttable players, that's all. Each situation is different. Each league is different. If your league hordes quarterbacks, you may not have the luxury of dropping a struggling passer. It's important to understand and know your leagues and know how your opponents value players. With that said, hopefully, this article will give you some advice on which players you can safely send to the waiver wire.

Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.

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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 14?

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints – 51% Rostered

Carr left last week's game with not only a concussion but also rib and shoulder injuries. This will be Carr's second concussion in a month and while he was able to pass through the protocol fairly quickly the first time around, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting that this time.

Typically when players have concussions so close together, the team opts to be more cautious, which is the correct way to handle such injuries. That means Carr will likely be out in Week 14. What makes Carr a cut candidate isn't just that he won't be available this upcoming week, but also because he simply hasn't been very good this season.

It's possible, maybe even likely, that if Jameis Winston comes in and plays well Carr will return as the team's backup. He has just 11 touchdowns in 12 games, which puts him on pace for just 16 touchdowns. He's also currently on pace for fewer than 4,000 passing yards. He has six games this year with less than 11 points. He has yet to score more than 19 points. To make matters even worse at present, Michael Thomas is on IR, and Rashid Shaheed has a quad injury that was reported as a potentially multi-week injury.

 

Running Backs to Cut in Week 14?

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons – 53% Rostered

If you roster Bijan Robinson, it may not make sense to cut Allgeier. He also has handcuff value so if you do not require an immediate starter, you may prefer to hang onto Allgeier's high contingency value if Robinson were to miss time. However, if you're in a pinch and need a roster spot or maybe there's a player on the waiver wire who can upgrade another one of your starting positions, Allgeier can be cut.

His role has steadily declined in recent weeks. His 16% snap share from Week 13 was his lowest of the season. From Weeks 1-7 Allgeier played 30% or more of the team's snaps in five games. However, in the last five games, he's eclipsed that total just once.

He's been held to five or fewer half-PPR points in seven out of 12 games. He has scored more than 10 points just twice. Once in Week 7 and the other back in Week 1. Even Allgeier's contingency value has taken a hit in recent weeks. That's because Cordarrelle Patterson has played more snaps than Allgeier in each of the team's last three games.

Other Running Backs to Cut: Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers – 47% Rostered, Dalvin Cook, New York Jets – 20% Rostered, Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens – 15% Rostered, Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins – 14% Rostered

 

Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 14?

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – 68% Rostered

Dotson has had a wildly disappointing second season. He has just a 15.2% target share, which ranks 62nd among receivers. His target per route run average is even worse, standing at 14.4%, ranking 89th among receivers. He averages 6.2 yards per target and 10.4 yards per reception, ranking 84th in both. He has scored fewer than 10 half-PPR points in eight out of 13 games. He has just one game over 15 points.

What hurts Dotson even more is the Commanders' upcoming matchups, which include the Rams, Jets, and 49ers. The Rams have allowed just the 20th most points to receivers this season and the 49ers and Jets have been two of the better defenses all season. It'll be very difficult for fantasy managers to trust Dotson in any of those matchups.

Other Wide Receivers to Cut: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals – 54% Rostered, Tank Dell, Houston Texans – 86% Rostered

 

Tight Ends to Cut in Week 14?

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 49% Rostered

Otton has had a few passable weeks, but for the most part, he's been someone fantasy managers can simply avoid. He has just a 13.6% target share, which is 23rd among tight ends. There's virtually no upside to the targets that he does get. He has just 306 air yards, which ranks 20th among tight ends. His 6.1 average depth of target ranks 26th. He has just two deep targets all season, which is 23rd. He's not getting used downfield at all and he's not getting targeted enough to compensate for that. He's averaging just 4.5 targets per game, which ranks 20th among tight ends. Fantasy managers cannot even hang their hats on elite efficiency which could lead to more utilization. His 0.92 yard per route run average ranks just 31st among tight ends. Otton has just one game with more than nine half-PPR points.

 

Hold On

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals – 89% Rostered

Brown wasn't 100% this past weekend. He played just 53% of the snaps and finished with zero receptions on three targets. He's struggled a bit since Kyler Murray returned. In Murray's first two games, Brown combined for just nine targets, three receptions, and 46 yards. However, in Week 12 Brown posted 12 targets, six receptions, and 88 yards. The Cardinals have a bye in Week 14 and hopefully, the extra week will allow him to get healthy.

The Cardinals lack pass-catching options outside of tight end Trey McBride and Brown. There's plenty of opportunity for good to great target volume in Arizona. They return to action in Week 15 against the 49ers, which will be a really tough game to trust Brown after having played just 53% of the snaps this past weekend. However, after Week 15, they'll play the Bears and Eagles. The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points to receivers this season.

Other Players to Hold: WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – 58% Rostered, RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers – 92% Rostered, RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings – 88% Rostered

 

Uh-Oh...

TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans – 76% Rostered

Fantasy managers should be concerned about what has happened with Schultz in Weeks 11-12 (Schultz was inactive in Week 13). From Weeks 5-8, Schultz averaged 12.5 half-PPR PPG and was the TE4 during that stretch. Teammate Brevin Jordan played just 14 total snaps during this five-game period. Schultz's route participation ballooned to 77%. He also generated a 22% target share during this time and averaged eight targets per game. His route participation was only at 72% in Weeks 1-4.

In the last two weeks, Weeks 11 and 12, his route participation has dropped to a dangerously low 63%. That is a major red flag. This seems to have correlated with Jordan's return. He missed Weeks 7-10, but returned in Week 11 and played 22% of the snaps. In Week 12, he played over 43% of the snaps. The table below shows the utilization of both players from Week 12:

Player Snaps Routes Targets Target Share
Dalton Schultz 48.3% 47.8% 2 5.8%
Brevin Jordan 43.3% 43.4% 1 2.9%

From Weeks 5-10, Schultz's route participation was above 70% in every game. It was above 75% in four out of the five. Not surprisingly, the extra routes ran helped Schultz increase his overall target share and targets per game. This is why it's so crucial to pay attention to a tight end's route participation rate and their raw route run data.

With the decrease in his route participation these last two weeks, Schultz's target share followed. He has just five targets, three receptions, and 34 yards in the last two games. He has just a 6.8% target share in the last two weeks, which is on par with Taysom Hill's seasonal target share.

 

On the Hot Seat

RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears – 59% Rostered

Herbert just returned from his high ankle sprain in Week 11, which had forced him to IR. During his absence, D'Onta Foreman held down the fort and has been a fantastic running back for fantasy managers. In Week 11, however, Foreman left the contest and did not return with his own ankle injury.

After Foreman left the game, Herbert played 20 snaps to Roschon Johnson's 16. Johnson played on 10 of the team's 12 third-down plays. He largely operated as the team's preferred pass-catching back and he should continue to operate in that role for the remainder of the season.

In Week 12, Johnson played 50 of the team's 67 snaps. Herbert played just 15 snaps in a game Foreman was inactive. Johnson finished with 10 carries to Herbert's six. Johnson also ran 21 routes and had four targets. Herbert ran seven routes and had two targets. Johnson finished with 35 rushing yards, five receptions, and 40 receiving yards en route to 10.0 half-PPR points.

Foreman should be back in Week 14, so it's unknown how the backfield shakes out. Based on Week 12, Herbert may be the odd man out. I'd expect Foreman to handle the majority of the early-down work, while Johnson works as the primary pass-catcher. Herbert would likely provide breathers to both backs. It's possible as the season moves along that Johnson will earn more work as the potential starter of Chicago's backfield in the future.



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