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With the first half of the season in the rearview mirror, when does regression start to hit some of the luckiest and unluckiest batters? Expected stats don't always mirror real-life results but at some point those on the extreme ends have to even out a little bit.
Let's kick off the second half of Statcast evaluations by looking at the hitters with the greatest differentials in expected batting average (xBA) compared to actual batting average on the positive and negative side.
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BA-xBA Underachievers for Fantasy Baseball
Are we missing out on an impending Austin Meadows breakout? I don't think so but let's examine the numbers first. Among batters with at least 100 PA this season, Meadows has the third-highest negative differential in batting average minus expected batting average and has the greatest differential in SLG-xSLG. He should be hitting .303 and slugging .456, except he's not.
Meadows has been an outright flop, especially in fantasy leagues, failing to register a single home run or steal while hitting .250 since going to the Tigers. It's jarring to see that this comes with a career-best 11.6% K% and excellent expected stats.
Technically, he's got 2.5 xHR so he should have a pair of homers but that doesn't do us much good, does it? He could have as many as five HR in Great American Ballpark but in Comerica, where he actually plays most of his games, it's still zero. This is where reading into expected stats can be misleading at times. Meadows does deserve better but in his current context on a terrible team, especially with his injury history, he's a bad bet to turn things around this year if ever.
Bryan De La Cruz isn't high on the fantasy radar because he's another young Marlins outfielder without a strong pedigree. He was an Astros farmhand who got unceremoniously shipped to Miami for Yimi Garcia before last year's deadline and has bounced back and forth between Triple-A and Miami this season.
When he's been active, he has made the most of his at-bats. De La Cruz is slashing .218/.264/.371 but his expected slash line is far better at .263/.325/.442. He is 45 points behind his xBA and is underachieving on his xSLG by 90 points as well.
We're going to find out in a few days whether the Marlins are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. If they stand pat or sell off pieces on offense, De La Cruz could be in line for everyday at-bats the rest of the way.
Carlos Santana wouldn't draw much interest except that he recently switched from a pretender to a contender in Seattle and immediately started scorching the ball.
After hitting four homers in 52 games with the Royals this year, he's hit five in his first 20 games with the Mariners. His average remains the same, though. He's batting .219 with his new club compared to .216 with the former. This follows consecutive seasons batting .214 and .199, so it's not too unusual.
Statcast says he deserves better, which makes plenty of sense considering his ground ball rate is at a career-low and his line drive rate is back up to pre-2019 levels. Aside from his perennially excellent plate discipline, Santana is hitting the ball with authority too.
I think .250 is the highest end of what we can expect for Santana by season's end but if he brings back his power and parlays that into RBI opportunities in a potent lineup that has already returned Kyle Lewis and could finally get Mitch Haniger back, Santana is worth buying into.
Staying on the Mariners front, let's revive a name that has been discussed several times in this column throughout the season - Jesse Winker. He barely missed the cut for the chart above but tied for 20th with Yan Gomes at -.030 BA-xBA.
He underperformed on his expected stats all year long but looked like he was turning things around in June. Considering how great the M's have played in July, you'd think Winker would be a factor in that regard but he hasn't at all. He's only taken 47 at-bats this month due to a six-game suspension and is hitting .191 with two homers and three RBI in the time he has played.
I've been holding out hope that he would turn things around when it comes to counting stats but the power he showed in Cincy hasn't translated to Seattle and the ballpark isn't solely to blame. His 87.6 exit velocity is a career-low and sits in the 12th percentile. At some point, his average may take an upturn but I'm afraid the power numbers will be insufficient to make him fantasy-relevant.
BA-xBA Overachievers for Fantasy Baseball
Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/25/2022
Paul Goldschmidt is immune from criticism at this point in his career, so let's not read too much into this. Sure, he may not be hitting .333 on the final day of the season but it's not as if you're trading him away in fear of a crash.
Luis Gonzalez got off to a strong start in his MLB debut, batting well over .300 up until he was sidelined by a back strain in late June. He hasn't been nearly the same since coming back, slashing .188/.297/.250 since.
He's got a mere .289 xwOBA on the year and is starting to look like a flash in the pan. He doesn't need to be rostered in fantasy leagues outside of NL-only formats.
Seiya Suzuki has been excellent on all fronts when healthy. So why does Statcast expect him to do far worse? It could be a middling hard-hit rate in the 47th percentile or the fact that his swing rate is far lower than the Major League average.
As a patient early-count hitter, Suzuki puts himself in tougher positions but has come away with mostly favorable outcomes. Considering he's 27 and has plenty of experience under his belt, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Andrew Benintendi is almost a sure bet to be on another team by next week with the Yankees rumored to be one of the teams interested in acquiring him. That would work wonders for his fantasy value considering he's toiled in KC all year long.
Benintendi is posting a career-low 13.7% K% and a .275 xBA along with strong EV numbers. While his batting average is almost sure to come down, his fantasy value should rise the instant he's traded because of lineup context. He's a strong bet to increase his R+RBI output even if he doesn't hit at the top of the order as he currently is.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a week's worth of production in one day. Maybe you heard...
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tied the Toronto Blue Jays' all-time single-game record for hits with six during Friday night's historic 28-5 rout over the Boston Red Sox. https://t.co/dQwbC3CDfL
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) July 23, 2022
For some, this comes as a surprise but it should only serve to highlight that Gurriel has been hot at the dish for a while now. Since May 26th, when his average was down to .221 on the season, he has hit .391 over the past 174 at-bats.
Personal-best 45 game spans
Batting Average - #BlueJays HistoryTony Fernandez (1999) .438
John Olerud (1993) .425
Carlos Delgado (2000) .411
Rance Mulliniks (1984) .403
Paul Molitor (1993) .400
Lourdes Gurriel (2022) .398 pic.twitter.com/PRxn33KhRO— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) July 23, 2022
Gurriel isn't giving you a ton of power but he's provided 40 R and 41 RBI along with an excellent batting average. The way things are going for him and the Jays, don't think twice about keeping him in your lineup.
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