RADIO
Steve Halupka ranks the best & worst offensive lines in the NFL heading into Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season. This could impact fantasy football value at QB, RB, and WR.
It’s amazing, but we are nearly a quarter of the way through the fantasy season. At this point a savvy fantasy owner can tell if their team is looking like a winner or one that is heading for a dumpster fire. Some NFL teams are the same way, teams like the Raiders and Cardinals are clearly in the process of rebuilding and their teams are suffering with 0-3 records. These teams are not only rebuilding in terms of new personnel at the skill positions, but on the offensive line as well. The Cardinals attempted to bring in some free agents like Justin Pugh from the Giants and Andre Smith from the Bengals with little success and the Raiders first round pick Kolton Miller has struggled mightily to start the season.
Luckily, we are able to pinpoint which of these struggling teams’ offensive lines will have a negative impact on their skill players. The Cardinals have destroyed much of David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald’s value so far this season. The Raiders have essentially neutered Derek Carr’s aggressiveness making him more of a dink and dunk passer than in previous years, only holding the ball an average of 2.49 seconds per drop back this season.
Each week I’ll take a look at a few offensive lines that are impacting fantasy football for the better and sometimes worse, and how they will impact certain skill players on each team going forward. This week I’ll look at two units that are nearly direct opposites to start the season, the Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens. The running game for the Broncos has Broncos fans reminiscing of the glory days from years prior, while the Ravens offensive line has underwhelmed to start the season. What has led to the resurgence of the Broncos line and the decline up front for Baltimore?
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Offensive Line to Watch - Denver Broncos
While this Broncos team may not remind Broncos’ fans of some of their favorite teams in the 1990’s, one thing is still consistent with those teams: the foundation of a running game. Through three weeks, the Broncos are third in the NFL in rushing, averaging nearly 145 yards per game on the ground.
The emergence of undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay in the backfield to pair with fellow rookie Royce Freeman has certainly helped matters, but the offensive line of the Broncos should be applauded as well. Heading into 2018 the right side of the Broncos offensive line was a massive question mark with Connor McGovern taking over the starting Right Guard spot full time and Jared Veldheer coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro at Right Tackle. To everyone’s surprise, McGovern has improved dramatically from year two to year three, leading the team with a 79.4 grade from Pro Football Focus. That grade is currently the 3rd best among all guards in the NFL.
Veldheer has also rebounded nicely off his disappointing season in Arizona with a 70.7 grade; good for the number 16 tackle in the NFL. A great example of this is in the first quarter on the Broncos first touchdown run where McGovern and Veldheer use the zone concepts to wash down the opposing defenders, including the blitzing linebacker so Jake Butt can lead Freeman to the end zone. Freeman sees this opening on the backside and uses a jump cut to get into the open field for this touchdown.
Denver goes right back to this scheme later in the game, and even though McGovern allows some penetration in the backfield, Freeman has enough time to adjust. As he adjusts, Jake Butt is able to cut Terrell Suggs and Veldheer again washes down the linebacker for a nice backside run yet again.
Not only has the right side of the offensive line been better than expected, but the remainder of the unit has lived up to expectations, well mostly.
Center Matt Paradis is a rock star; there is no other way to say it. He should be considered one of the best centers in the NFL for years to come barring injury. He currently ranks number 3 in the NFL among centers just below perennial Pro Bowler Jason Kelce from the Eagles and David Andrews of the Patriots. Ronald Leary has been a solid contributor as well at Left Guard grading out in the top half of guards in the NFL. The one player that has underwhelmed to this point is second year Left Tackle Garett Bolles. Bolles has performed admirably in the running game, earning himself a 63.8 grade according to PFF, but has struggled in pass protection. He has poor technique which includes him dipping his head and leaning forward as he engages his defender. This gets him off balance if the defender is not lined up directly in front of Bolles, then in his off balance state, he will grab and potentially end up tackling the defender in front of him.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay
The way this team is dedicated to the running game, even when trailing is fairly remarkable. They really have a one-two punch that is working in the classic Denver zone scheme. Freeman is able to get north and south quickly and utilize jump cuts if need be to sneak out the backside of a run like his touchdown early in Week 3. Lindsay is in the Devonta Freeman mold where he is extremely elusive between the tackles and is a definite factor in the passing game. Expect both to be factors going forward squarely in the weekly low-end RB2 range each.
Trust: Emmanuel Sanders
Even though Sanders was only targeted four times against the worst of the Ravens cornerbacks, fantasy owners should expect more great things to come from the Broncos primary slot wide receiver. Even though Demaryius Thomas currently leads the Broncos in percentage of air yards (25.91%), Sanders 82.61% catch rate simply is too much to ignore. He isn’t too far behind Thomas in air yard percentage (24.46%), but is much more efficient. Expect Sanders to continue to be a WR2 in all formats.
Offensive Line to Watch - Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens offense overall this season has been above average for the first time in a few seasons which has revitalized Joe Flacco and his new weapons. Flacco has averaged 292 passing yards per game so far in 2018, which is by far a career high. Flacco has attempted to take advantage of his shiny new toys in John Brown, Michael Crabtree, and Willie Snead, but it’s been far from perfect.
The offensive line hasn’t done Flacco any favors so far this season giving up eight sacks through three games. Two bright spots have been Right Guard, Marshall Yanda and Left Tackle Ronnie Stanley, as most expected. Yanda has not regained all of his form previous years, but he will have to in order to sure up the middle of the Ravens offensive line. Yanda is grading out at just a 64.5 according to Pro Football Focus, down more than 18 points from 2017.
If Yanda is really falling off then the Ravens may as a unit may not be able to recover. The good news for Ravens fans is that Yanda and most of the remaining starters on the offensive line have been solid in pass protection. Yanda (80.2), Center Matt Skura (81.8), and Ronnie Stanley (76.9) are all grading at or above starter level in pass protection.
There are some issues at the other positions with Left Guard Alex Lewis (55.8) and Right Tackle James Hurst (64.8) leaving a lot to be desired. If Hurst continues to struggle, expect the Ravens to turn to second round pick Orlando Brown at some point this season to lock down the right side of the line. This clip in particular demonstrates just some of the issues with the two players that have struggled in pass protection. Even with the help of Nick Boyle, James Hurst shows poor technique and gets swam over leading to a pressure late in the play. Alex Lewis give up a pressure here as well with poor hand placement on his punch allowing the defensive lineman to get inside his pads and push him into Joe Flacco’s lap.
The running game hasn’t been much better across the board. There is no Ravens’ offensive lineman grading at 60 or above in the running game according to Pro Football Focus. While the line in general has not been great on a consistent basis, the Ravens have found pockets of goodness so far. They have used ball handling and creative motion and personnel groupings to try and have some successes on the ground.
In this first clip early in the first quarter, the Ravens run a draw that is blocked up fairly well up front. There is a hat on a hat across the board, but again James Hurst is unable to stay engaged with his defensive lineman allowing him to spin back, into the play. You will notice that on the left side, Ronnie Stanley demonstrates good technique in throwing the oncoming rusher by, past the play, so he can get to the second level. Hurst’s initial pass set to draw the defender up-field is poor, so he needs to try and recover, leading to his off-balanced attempt at his block.
This play is a good example of how personnel can work to your advantage. Lamar Jackson is in the game and runs Ghost motion behind Flacco and Alex Collins. That motion draws not one, but two defensive backs run at the snap towards Jackson’s motion. This leaves a void in the secondary and a one less body on the right side to attempt to take down Collins after the counter action of the play. Maxx Williams get a good lead block on the linebacker, springing Collins for the touchdown. With the current state of the offensive line, the Ravens will have to continue to use creative means to get the run game going.
Fantasy Impact
Hold: John Brown
John Brown has been reborn in Baltimore after struggling to stay on the field in Arizona over the past couple of seasons. Brown is currently leading the league in Average Targeted Air Yards at 19.9 yards per target, while seeing over 40% of the Ravens air yards so far according to NFL Advanced Stats. Expect Brown to continue to see those deep shots from Joe Flacco. Luckily, the Ravens have been above average in pass protection. Expect Brown to be a boom or bust Flex going forward.
Cause for Concern: Alex Collins
The Ravens simply have not gotten the job done up front, couple that with the massive number of stacked boxes (58.3% of Collins rushes have been with eight plus defenders in the box) that Collins is seeing is cause for concern going forward. Not only is he getting vultured by Buck Allen, but Collins himself has not performed as well to start 2018 vs. 2017. Collins is still an every week Flex play, but may not be the RB2 or low-end RB1 fantasy owners were expecting.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Los Angeles Rams
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Denver Broncos
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Buffalo Bills
31) Seattle Seahawks
30) New York Giants
29) Arizona Cardinals
28) Cleveland Browns
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
