RADIO
Ian Christenson's Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Cognizant Classic. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or if you’re new to this particular DFS format.
This week, the tour is back in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort. Jake Knapp delivered a record breaking performance by shooting a ridiculous 12-under par 59, marking the 15th time in history a player has broken 60 in a PGA Tour event. However, in Round 2, Knapp came back down to earth and posted a 1-under 70. Despite this, he still topped the leaderboard. Matthieu Pavon closely trails him after firing a 7-under par 64 in Round 2, leaving him just one stroke behind as they head into the weekend. Following Knapp and Pavon are Michael Kim, Daniel Berger, Jesper Svensson, and Doug Ghim, who posted an 8-under par 63 in Round 2. Additionally, a noteworthy headline from the weekend is that Luke Clanton, who is tied for 10th, secured his PGA Tour card by making the cut.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The defenses at PGA National Resort include the wind and, in the past, the fast-rolling Bermuda fairways. However, the generous Rye overseed has lessened that defense. In Round 2, conditions were slightly windier compared to Round 1. Round 3 is expected to have similar conditions to those in Round 2, but with slightly higher wind gusts throughout the day.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Shane Lowry has played consistently in the first two rounds, and I expect him to maintain that consistency heading into the weekend. In the first round, he lost 0.16 strokes on approach but gained 1.90 strokes putting. In Round 2, he lost 0.44 strokes on approach and 2.02 strokes putting. While he hasn't been putting at his best, he has been excellent around the greens. I don't expect him to shoot an 8-under par in Round 3, but we know he is capable of that kind of performance. If he can improve his putting even marginally tomorrow, he could go low.
Who doesn't love a Shane chip-in 👏#CognizantClassic pic.twitter.com/ZofRDqbpsk
— Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (@the_cognizant) February 28, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: As I mentioned last week, Ben Griffin is having a breakout season in 2025. He shot a 3-under 68 in Round 1 and followed it up with a 6-under 65 in Round 2. In Round 1, Griffin gained 1.06 strokes on approach but lost 0.13 strokes putting. In Round 2, he gained 0.88 strokes on approach and 0.79 strokes putting. It seems that Griffin sticks to a weekly modus operandi. He typically doesn't do anything spectacular in the first round but then turns it up a notch in Round 2, and puts the pedal to the medal over the weekend. I expect nothing less than a solid performance from him.
Other Options: Min Woo Lee
$8,000+
Favorite Play: If there’s one player I’ll be including in my lineups tomorrow, it’s Michael Kim. In Round 1, Kim gained 1.17 strokes on approach and 1.45 strokes putting. He followed this up in Round 2 by gaining 1.30 strokes on approach but lost 0.23 strokes putting. Kim is an ideal target for showdown lineups tomorrow. He has flashed strong approach play in the first two rounds, but we'll hope to see more birdies drop in Round 3. Currently, he is only two strokes off the lead, and I expect him to keep giving himself birdies looks.
Other Options: Max Greyserman, Patrick Rodgers
$7,000+
Favorite Play: J.J. Spaun could be higher on the leaderboard if not for the double bogey he made on the par-3 fifth hole in Round 2. In Round 1, he recorded a bogey-free 64 and only had one bogey—besides the double bogey—in Round 2. Spaun has been excellent with his approach shots, gaining 1.85 strokes in Round 1 and 0.22 strokes in Round 2, for a total of 2.07 strokes gained on approach in the first two rounds, ranking him 27th. However, his performance on the greens slid significantly from Round 1 to Round 2. In Round 1, he gained 1.81 strokes putting but lost 1.63 strokes putting in Round 2. Spaun is an ideal target for lineups tomorrow; he has demonstrated the ability to perform well on approach and on the greens, and his underwhelming Round 2 may make him an under-owned golfer in Round 3.
Other Options: Beau Hossler, Rickie Fowler, Luke Clanton, Brian Campbell
It's only the beginning of his story ...
21-year-old Luke Clanton talks about becoming #TOURBound and the support of his family and friends as he heads into the weekend T10 @The_Cognizant. https://t.co/5WdTpQduYv pic.twitter.com/xb4CRWwsmN
— PGA TOUR University (@PGATOURU) February 28, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Michael Thorbjornsen has recorded two solid rounds of 4-under 67 in the first two rounds. He has shown he can play well early in tournaments; however, he has struggled in either his first or second rounds, which has lead to him missing the cut. In Round 1, Thorbjornsen gained 1.77 strokes on approach but lost 0.86 strokes putting. In Round 2, he improved, gaining 1.25 strokes on approach and 2.19 strokes putting. While he may not putt as well as he did in Round 2, I believe in taking a chance on a golfer like Thorbjornsen, who consistently gives himself opportunities for birdies.
Other Options: Zach Johnson, Taylor Montgomery, Davis Riley
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Niklas Norgaard shot a 4-under 67 in Round 1, and the most impressive part was that he did this despite recording two double bogeys and a bogey, dropping birdie on nine holes. Round 2 was a bit less exciting for Norgaard, but he has shown he can go low when all parts of his game are on point. In Round 1, he lost 1.04 strokes on approach but gained 1.73 strokes putting. In Round 2, he gained 2.14 strokes on approach but lost 1.09 strokes putting. Norgaard is EXACTLY the type of golfer we are looking for in this section of the article; one part of his game excelled in one round, while a different aspect shone in the next. If he can combine these in Round 3, he could go low.
A look at the leaders! 🌴 #CognizantClassic pic.twitter.com/9GFaHS09aX
— Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (@the_cognizant) February 28, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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