X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

Quarterback Fallers for Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis before Training Camps

Geno Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.

Featured Promo: Looking for some fantasy football action? Join a dynasty startup league over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. FFPC is the leader in dynasty leagues and has standard, superflex and best ball formats. Dynasty not your thing? No worries, FFPC has Best Ball leagues as well. Join A League Today!

 

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Although the drop in Geno's ADP isn't incredible, it's the only one in this column larger than a full round in 12-team leagues and that's more than enough to consider it something serious. That said, it's not that anything has impacted Smith's ADP directly when it comes to news potentially hurting his upside.

The most probable reason for the steady decrease in Smith's price and his ADP fall is the fact that GMs might be starting to get a bit scared of Geno putting on an encore of his outlier 2022 season next year. Remember that Smith is coming off a campaign that surprised everybody and eased the transition from the Russell Wilson era to the short/mid-term future in Seattle.

Smith went from a subpar/reserve quarterback to a top-5 producer in 2022 passing for 4,282 yards and adding 366 more yards on the ground, completing a 31-TD season all things considered. No wonder he finished the year as the QB5 in fantasy leagues.

The Seahawks have retained all of their offensive weapons while adding another capable wideout in rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba to their fold. The pass-catching unit looks hella strong, probably even more than last season, but the concerns are related to whether or not Geno can keep it up next year.

Even if Smith regresses a bit (something you should expect), the ADP should make for a good bet and yield some ROI already, let alone if it keeps falling.

 

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Interestingly enough, Wilson found himself going in the opposite way to that of his former teammate Geno Smith but equally in the ADP-trend charts with a drop of nearly a full round in the past few weeks.

Wilson left Seattle to play ball for the first time away from the only team he had ever known and tanked his first season in Denver finishing as just the QB16 of 2022. It was Wilson's worst season when playing at least 15 games in terms of passing yards since 2018, and his worst-ever in fantasy football with a mediocre 15.1 FPPG average.

It's fair to assume that fantasy GMs, even though they have not faded Wilson in any sort of crazy way (a 10-pick drop isn't that big, mind you), are fearing another down season by Wilson in 2023. On top of everything, news popped up at the end of May regarding Jerry Jeudy suffering a left thigh injury while HC Sean Payton has been giving flowers to... Greg Dulcich of all men. Not the most inspiring situation out there.

Wilson will probably bounce back at least a bit next year (improving on a QB16 finish shouldn't be hard for him) so having the chance of drafting a potential top-10 quarterback with an ADP lower than 150th-OVR might actually turn Wilson into one of the better, under-the-radar values at the position this summer and heading into next season.

 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Starting with the latest news breaking out of the Chargers OTAs, Herbert recently said that he planned to practice with the rest of the team in seven-man activities entering mid-June. Herbert is expected to be fully fit by the time the training camps arrive in July, and the shoulder injury he's nurturing is on his non-throwing arm so it shouldn't be overly concerning.

Herbert is entering his fourth season as a pro and he's yet to drop below QB1 levels of play having finished as the ninth, second, and 11th-best quarterback in fantasy leagues in the past three seasons respectively. The ADP in those summers sat at 169th-OVR, then 52nd, then 30th.

Of course, Herbert went from the second-best FP figure in 2021 to the 11th-best last year, but that's still more than great production for someone getting drafted with an ADP below 60th OVR right now and dropping by the day.

The Chargers won't have many changes in their personnel when the ball gets rolling with all receivers ready to go, the running back stable intact after Austin Ekeler was confirmed to return, and the addition of rookie WR Quentin Johnston adding some wood to the wideout-room fire.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Detroit Pistons9 mins ago

Pistons Making A Coaching Change After Firing Monty Williams
Pascal Siakam22 mins ago

Pacers Plan To Sign Pascal Siakam To A New Deal
Walker Buehler3 hours ago

A Candidate To Hit The Injured List
Trea Turner3 hours ago

Getting A Breather On Wednesday
Masyn Winn3 hours ago

Returns From Illness
Jazz Chisholm Jr.3 hours ago

Scratched With Hamstring Tightness
Wyndham Clark6 hours ago

Looking To Stop The Bleeding At Travelers Championship
Los Angeles Lakers6 hours ago

Lakers "Monitoring" Options At Center
Matt Fitzpatrick6 hours ago

Looking For Consistency In Connecticut
Patty Mills6 hours ago

Hopes To Continue Career
Philadelphia 76ers6 hours ago

Sam Dekker Among Free Agents To Work Out For 76ers
Bojan Bogdanovic6 hours ago

Knicks Expected To Guarantee Bojan Bogdanovic's Contract
OG Anunoby7 hours ago

Reportedly "Not Thrilled" With Knicks' Contract Offers
Pete Fairbanks7 hours ago

Dealing With Thumb Contusion
George Kittle14 hours ago

Recovered, Back On Field
Gardner Minshew II15 hours ago

No Front-Runner Yet Between Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew II
Nick Castellanos15 hours ago

Has Four-Hit Game, Walk-Off Tuesday
Brandin Cooks15 hours ago

Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks Elevate Their Rapport
Nick Lodolo15 hours ago

Improves To 8-2 Tuesday
Jonathan Cannon15 hours ago

Nearly Achieves Complete-Game Shutout
Pete Fairbanks15 hours ago

Exits Early Tuesday After Being Hit In Hand By Comebacker
Aaron Judge16 hours ago

Tests On Aaron Judge's Hand Come Back Negative For Fractures
Kodai Senga16 hours ago

To Throw Bullpen Wednesday, Could Face Hitters This Weekend
San Francisco Giants17 hours ago

Willie Mays Passes Away At 93
Charlie Blackmon17 hours ago

Experiencing Hamstring Tightness
José Soriano18 hours ago

Jose Soriano Nursing An Infection
Sepp Straka18 hours ago

In Excellent Form For Travelers Championship
Jeimer Candelario18 hours ago

Dealing With Tendinitis
Brian Harman18 hours ago

Finding Consistency Before Travelers Championship
J.T. Realmuto18 hours ago

Expects To Return Around All-Star Break
Sahith Theegala18 hours ago

Playing Well Heading To Travelers Championship
Matthew Stafford18 hours ago

Wants More Guaranteed Money
Kyle Tucker18 hours ago

Still Not Doing Baseball Activities
Aaron Judge19 hours ago

Leaves After Hit-By-Pitch
Viktor Hovland19 hours ago

Looks To Right The Ship At Travelers Championship
Scottie Scheffler19 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Travelers Championship
Yoán Moncada19 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Return Around All-Star Break
Jordan Westburg19 hours ago

Leaves Early With Hip Discomfort
Justin Thomas19 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Travelers Championship
Anthony Rizzo20 hours ago

Shut Down From Baseball Activities For 4-5 Weeks
Scott Perunovich20 hours ago

Earns One-Year Extension From Blues
Sam Burns20 hours ago

A Flighty Pick For Travelers Championship
Filip Hronek20 hours ago

Signs $58 Million Deal With Canucks
20 hours ago

Barclay Goodrow Waived By Rangers
Sergei Bobrovsky20 hours ago

Attempts To Produce Another Big Bounce-Back Effort
Evander Kane21 hours ago

Likely To Remain Out For Game 5
Ryan Lomberg21 hours ago

Inserted Into Panthers Lineup Tuesday
Collin Morikawa21 hours ago

Looks To Improve On History At Travelers Championship
PGA23 hours ago

Sungjae Im Has Been Thriving At Non-Major Events
Pascal Siakam23 hours ago

Likely To Remain With Indiana
Corey Conners23 hours ago

Finding His Short Game
Tony Finau23 hours ago

Brings Great Form To Travelers
Patrick Cantlay23 hours ago

Looks For Ninth Career Win In Connecticut
Al Horford24 hours ago

Returning For His 18th NBA Season
Kirk Cousins1 day ago

Confident He'll Be Full-Go For Training Camp
Tom Kim1 day ago

Striking The Ball Well Ahead Of Travelers
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Seeks Second Tour Victory At Travelers
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Lacks Upside At TPC River Highlands
Russell Henley1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At Travelers
Shane Lowry1 day ago

Be Wary Of Shane Lowry At Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Still Trying To Putt Consistently
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

To Unleash His Putter This Week
Kyrie Irving1 day ago

Limited To 15 Points In Game 5 Loss
Luka Doncic1 day ago

Ends Finals With Historic Numbers
Al Horford1 day ago

Finally Celebrates Championship Win In 186th Playoff Game
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Set For Surgery After Helping Celtics Clinch Title
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Finishes Finals With Big Effort
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Named Finals MVP
Josh Berry2 days ago

Grabs Another Top-10 Finish At Iowa
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2 days ago

. Delivers Massive Day For DFS Managers
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Secures Spot In Playoffs With Iowa Win
NASCAR2 days ago

Daniel Suárez Inches Up To Ninth Place Sunday
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Holds On To Top-10 Finish At Iowa
Amari Cooper2 days ago

Andrew Berry: Amari Cooper "A Big Part Of Our Team"
Deshaun Watson2 days ago

"Really Actually Ahead Of Schedule"
Ladd McConkey2 days ago

Signs Rookie Deal
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Unlucky at Iowa, but Still a Relative Non-Factor Before That
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Made Electrifying Charge Through Field at Iowa Until Late Race Crash
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Inexplicably Slow in Inaugural Iowa Race
Christopher Bell2 days ago

the Sole Bright Spot for Toyota at Iowa
Klay Thompson2 days ago

Open To All "External Options"
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Finishes One Lap Down In 15th At Iowa
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Obtains A Great Finish Of Third At Iowa
Joey Logano2 days ago

Finishes Sixth In The Iowa Corn 350
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Rallies Through The Field To Finish Eighth At Iowa
William Byron2 days ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Iowa
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

49ers Don't Want Brandon Aiyuk Back?
Tatsuro Taira2 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Alex Perez2 days ago

Unable To Continue After Suffering A Knee Injury
Garrett Armfield2 days ago

Submitted At UFC Vegas 93
Brady Hiestand2 days ago

Gets Third-Round Submission Win
Jose Johnson2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 93
MMA2 days ago

Asu Almbayev Extends Win Streak
NBA2 days ago

Monty Williams Set To Remain With Pistons
Collin Sexton2 days ago

Could Be On The Move Again
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2 days ago

Nuggets "Concerned" Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Will Decline His Player Option
Harrison Barnes2 days ago

Kevin Huerter And Harrison Barnes Expected To Be Available On Trade Market
NBA2 days ago

Mario Hezonja Linked With Return To NBA
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Wants To Retire A Pittsburgh Steeler
Josh Quinlan3 days ago

Losing Streak Hits Three At UFC Vegas 93
Adam Fugitt3 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Vegas 93
Timmy Cuamba3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Lucas Almeida3 days ago

Pulls Off Upset At UFC Vegas 93
Douglas Silva de Andrade3 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 93
Miles Johns3 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win At UFC Vegas 93
Daniel Suarez3 days ago

Why You Should Fade Daniel Suarez In DFS This Weekend At Iowa
Corey Lajoie3 days ago

Should You Roster Corey Lajoie In DFS This Weekend?
Carson Hocevar3 days ago

Will Start 20th At Iowa Speedway
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 16th At Iowa Speedway
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Might Have A Positive Result At Iowa
Joey Logano3 days ago

Could Joey Logano Be A Sneaky Tournament Play At Iowa?
Justin Haley3 days ago

Consider Justin Haley A Great Value Pick For Iowa?
Dak Prescott4 days ago

May Command More In Contract Talks
NFL4 days ago

Stephon Gilmore Not In A Rush To Sign A Deal
Tee Higgins4 days ago

Signs His Franchise Tender
Jarrett Stidham5 days ago

Has The Advantage Over Bo Nix
Tim Patrick5 days ago

Looking Healthy This Offseason
Jayden Daniels5 days ago

Commanders Sign Jayden Daniels To Rookie Deal
Tatsuro Taira5 days ago

Looks To Win 16th Fight In A Row
Alex Perez5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 93
Brady Hiestand5 days ago

Looking To Extend His Win Streak
Garrett Armfield5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 93
Jose Johnson5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA5 days ago

Asu Almbayev Looks To Win His Third UFC Fight In A Row
Breece Hall5 days ago

Jets Being Cautious With Breece Hall
Leon Draisaitl5 days ago

On First Three-Game Scoring Drought Since March 2020
Connor McDavid5 days ago

Finishes Game 3 Loss With Two Assists
Sam Bennett5 days ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Vladimir Tarasenko5 days ago

Nets Fourth Postseason Goal
Sam Reinhart5 days ago

Ends Goal Drought During Multi-Point Effort
Aleksander Barkov5 days ago

Establishes New Panthers Record With Eighth Multi-Point Outing
Darius Slayton6 days ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns6 days ago

Myles Garrett Tweaks His Hamstring In Minicamp
Amari Cooper6 days ago

Holds Out Of Final Day Of Minicamp
Trevor Lawrence6 days ago

Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence Agree On Five-Year, $275 Million Extension
SJ6 days ago

Sharks Appoint Ryan Warsofsky As Head Coach
Jalen Chatfield6 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Extension With Hurricanes
Kaapo Kakko6 days ago

Signs One-Year Extension With Rangers
Patrik Laine6 days ago

Poised To Move On From Columbus
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF