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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of quarterbacks to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should you buy into the ADP jump for Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Risers
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
With the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Adam Thielen, and DJ Moore (just to name a few) changing teams and signing elsewhere this offseason, the Giants' trade for Darren Waller might have flown under the radar a bit. That's not to mention the additions of Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt to Big Blue's offense.
Obviously, only Waller is a bonafide, legitimate top-tier performer among the three players aforementioned who have joined either via free agency or the draft. Even then, they are more weapons for a newly-resigned Daniel Jones and the Giants as a whole.
It is still to be seen where the Saquon Barkley saga ends (the most recent news is talking about a possible holdout through the summer) but the Giants have definitely improved their roster ahead of next season and Jones is now assuredly the QB1 of the team, which has also given fantasy GMs another reason to believe in Jones as a viable player to roster in 2023.
Jones put up his first-ever QB1-level campaign last year finishing as the ninth-best player at the position with absolutely monstrous numbers on run plays (708 yards and 7 TDs) with the only problem of not throwing an incredible amount of TDs on pass plays (15 TDs, although he limited INTs to just five). Even with an ADP entering the 10th round, that's a more than reasonable price to pay for Jones this summer.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
It's too obvious and expected to find Lamar Jackson sitting here somewhere. The rise in ADP isn't remarkable (less than a full round from the start of May) but it's very understandable because just days before the draft fantasy GMs (and real-life GMs too, actually) had no clue about where or when Jackson would be playing football next fall and winter.
All of that came to an end with Baltimore handing Lamar Jackson a hefty deal to keep the former MVP in tow for a bunch of years... only for them to double down on the move and load an anemic offense with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. (with hopes he can stay on the field and produce), rookie Zay Jones (instantly the new WR2/WR3 of the team), and veteran Nelson Agholor (not the greatest but a solid and steady enough pass-catcher).
I don't think we need to talk a lot about Lamar Jackson's skill set in particular at this point. He's a known, proven commodity. He's entering his sixth season of pro football in 2023 and in the prior four (he wasn't a weekly starter as a rookie), even though he's never started all games of a single campaign for one reason or another, he's still finished QB1, QB10, QB16, and QB14 among players at his position.
The rushing numbers are ludicrous and unparalleled (4,437 yards on the ground in five seasons, the most by 1,350 in distance with second-place Josh Allen in the same span), and the passing has stayed more than above water with 2,200+ yards in four consecutive campaigns with at least 16 TDs in each of his last four years.
Of course, the problem with Lamar Jackson has been his injuries (he's coming off his second season with just 12 games played) and that's something we cannot assuredly guarantee will be fixed in 2023. That said, Lamar should start the year strong as an ox, and by the time he goes down (we hope he does not!) he might have already clinched a QB1-level finish. The sky is the limit, and his ADP (even rising) is the lowest he's had in the past four summers.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Barring the potential exit of Austin Ekeler, the Chargers didn't lose any skill-position player worth mentioning this offseason. On the other hand, they added Quentin Johnston to the wide-receiver corps to play behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. It can be said that the slight rise of Herbert's ADP pretty much resembles and speaks about that development.
Herbert can be considered a winner by default two weeks after the NFL draft. In three years as a pro, Herbert has turned into a perennial QB1-level type of player and he's actually coming off his worst campaign, and the first one in which he failed to throw for 30+ TDs and also to score even one rushing TD. At least one of those two things should inevitably change in 2023, boosting his value.
With three years of play under his belt, though, Herbert is not going to give you any ridiculous ROI anymore. In fact, Herbert already had an ADP of 30th OVR in last summer's drafts, so you can consider him a bargain at his current price with the soon-to-be fourth-year quarterback getting drafted outside of the first five rounds in most drafts.
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