Who Totes the Rock in Jacksonville Now?

June 20, 2021

Frank Ammirante breaks down the crowded Jacksonville Jaguars running back room and looks at the fantasy values of the RBs on the team heading into 2021.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were a disaster in 2020, finishing with the worst record in the NFL at 1-15, but one of the few positives was their running game. Undrafted rookie James Robinson was a revelation, rushing for 1,070 yards on 240 carries (4.5 YPC) and seven touchdowns while also adding 49 receptions, 344 yards, and three touchdowns. He was a total workhorse, which led many to believe that running back was not a need for Jacksonville.

New head coach Urban Meyer had other ideas, selecting Clemson star running back Travis Etienne in the first round of this year's draft, pairing him with former teammate Trevor Lawrence, who was the team's other pick in the Top-32. This shocked many observers and muddled this backfield, pushing Robinson down from a low-end RB1 to a committee back on the RB2/3 fringe. The question now becomes: how do we navigate this backfield?

In this article, I'll provide insight on how the Jaguars are likely to allocate touches with these two talented running backs to help determine their fantasy value for the upcoming season. Let's dive in.

Travis Etienne: Playmaker 

Etienne is an excellent receiver out of the backfield with a strong contact balance. He has an impressive track record in his four-year career at Clemson, combining for 4,952 rushing yards, 1,155 receiving yards, and 78 total touchdowns in 55 games. His first-round draft capital virtually guarantees him a significant role in his rookie season.

Since 2015, seven of nine first-round rookie running backs finished as RB2s in fantasy points per game (PPR) in their first season: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB21), Josh Jacobs (RB15), Saquon Barkley (RB2), Rashaad Penny (RB77), Leonard Fournette (RB7), Christian McCaffrey (RB12), Ezekiel Elliott (RB3), Todd Gurley (RB9), and Melvin Gordon (RB58). Teams recognize that running back is a devalued position, so when they actually use their first-rounder on one, they make sure to play them. This bodes well for Etienne's outlook as a rookie.

The difference with Etienne is that he won't be used as a traditional running back. Immediately following the draft, coach Meyer said that the team was disappointed that the New York Giants took wide receiver Kadarius Toney at pick 20. The Jags decided to settle on Etienne, which tips their hand on their plans for his usage. Urban Meyer wants Etienne to be his new Percy Harvin.

Harvin was a dynamic playmaker who was highly productive during his three-year career at Florida, totaling 1,852 yards on 194 carries (9.5 YPC) as well as 133 receptions for 1,929 yards (14.5 Y/R) and 32 total touchdowns in 36 games. Coach Meyer also used current Washington wide receiver Curtis Samuel in a similar role at Ohio State. Samuel amassed 771 yards on 97 carries (7.9 YPC) and 865 yards on 74 receptions (11.7 Y/R) with 15 total touchdowns in 13 games in his final season with the Buckeyes.

There are two actionable takeaways from these plans. For one, it should leave you feeling bullish on Etienne because running back targets are the most valuable play in fantasy football. Secondly, it leaves us with some hope for Robinson, who is in line to retain a significant role in this offense.

James Robinson: Power

Robinson was the biggest surprise of the 2020 season, finishing as RB5 in fantasy points per game (PPR). He showed that he could not only pound the ball in between the tackles but also catch it out of the backfield and evade opposing defenders. According to Stathead, Robinson's 17.89 PPR PPG ranked ninth among rookie running backs since 2000 (minimum 12 games played), behind Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Clinton Portis, Doug Martin, Matt Forte, Kareem Hunt, and Adrian Peterson.

That is some pretty impressive company - Robinson isn't just going to fade into obscurity with the addition of Etienne. This is a talented back who will retain a significant role in this Jaguars offense. With Meyer's plans to use Etienne in a Harvin-like role, there's a chance that Robinson can continue to lead the Jags in rush attempts. It's likely that Robinson will split the rock on early downs and dominate usage in the red zone. He'll benefit when the Jags are playing with the lead, as he'll likely be used more in these situations as the clock-killing runner between the tackles.

The problem is that Etienne will take away a significant portion of Robinson's passing-game usage. This makes Robinson more of a game-script-dependent running back. The Jags are still a rebuilding team that will be playing from behind more than with a lead, which favors Etienne since he thrives in the passing game.

Player Outlooks

Etienne is currently being drafted as RB23 in Underdog Fantasy leagues, which makes him a solid value because of his high upside due to receiving volume as well as the impressive track record for first-round running backs in their rookie seasons. While rush attempts will likely be equally distributed, Etienne should lead the team in total touches due to his usage in the passing game.

Robinson is going as RB30 in Underdog Fantasy leagues, which is also a great price for a running back who provided such elite production in his rookie season. Robinson is going behind the likes of Chase Edmonds, Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert, and Trey Sermon, which is just borderline disrespectful. He should be able to provide RB2/3 value even with this reduced role, which means that he's currently being drafted at his floor. If Etienne were to miss time or struggle as a rookie, Robinson's value would skyrocket.

It's also worth noting that the Jaguars might have the most improved offense in football. Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and could have a Justin Herbert-like impact as a rookie. D.J. Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., and Marvin Jones Jr. are an impressive trio of wide receivers. That gives Lawrence five good playmakers at his disposal.

The defense is still rebuilding, so we can reasonably project the team to be involved in a fair share of shootouts this season. This means that you want to invest in players in this offense. Etienne is my preferred target due to his upside, but don't forget about Robinson. Both players are ranked in my top-26 running backs, with Etienne coming in at RB21 and Robinson at RB26.

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