X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Points Leagues ADP Busts: First Basemen To Fall Short Of ADP In 2023

Anthony Rizzo - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Spring training is winding down as teams prepare to finalize their rosters ahead of March 30, Opening Day. Simultaneously, fantasy managers are getting their notes in order for draft day, with a heavy dose of drafts to take place over the next week.

As a result, it's a great time to dial in on some position analysis. Draft day isn't only a time to target players but also to avoid those unlikely to live up to their ADPs. There's a wealth of reasons why a certain player is likely to provide the value required at prevailing ADPs, but it's not about targeting one specific area. Rather, it's best to look at all factors to decipher which players to avoid on draft day.

All that being said, let's take a look at some first basemen unlikely to live up to their current ADPs in NFBC points and H2H points leagues in 2023.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Sign Up Now!

Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

ADP - 24.29 PRK: 4 OVRK: 23

It's certainly rare to avoid a player coming off an MVP season, but Paul Goldschmidt will be hard-pressed to finish the 2023 season as a top-25 player.

Despite finishing in the top three of NL MVP voting three times with the D-backs from 2013-2017, Goldschmidt's stock is sky-high entering his age-35 season after capturing his elusive MVP in the 2022 campaign.

After hitting .260 with a career-low 117 wRC+ at age 31 in the 2019 season, it appeared Goldy might be on the decline. Three seasons later at 34 years of age, the Cardinals' first baseman hit .317 with 35 home runs, 106 runs, 115 RBI, seven stolen bases, a .982 OPS, and 177 wRC+. Overall, it was the best offensive season of his 12-year MLB career.

Goldschmidt posted plenty of big-time numbers in 2022, one of which was a .368 BABIP that is well above his elevated .349 career mark. While he still made plenty of hard contact, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate actually declined from 2021. While his walk rate bounced back to 12.1% in 2022, his 21.7% K% represented an increase for a second straight season.

While he's been extremely durable throughout his career, Goldschmidt's 151 games played in 2022 were his fewest in a single season since 2014. He still made 651 trips to the plate and will play every day when healthy, but at 35 it's difficult to guarantee full health over the 162-game regular-season grind.

There's plenty of reason to like Goldschmidt, but can we guarantee he'll be better than Matt Olson, who could be had 20 picks later? He'll need another MVP-type campaign to justify a top-25 pick this spring.

Anthony Rizzo, Yankees

ADP - 150.58 PRK: 13 OVRK: 144

Anthony Rizzo's first full season with the Yankees went swimmingly in 2022 as he clubbed 32 HR in just 130 games while producing a 132 wRC+ which represents his most productive season at the plate since 2019. However, Rizzo's roto stats weren't exceptional. It appears his health could be compromised moving forward.

Despite hitting more than 30 homers for the first time since 2017, Rizzo drove in just 75 runs while scoring 77 of his own. He also hit only .224 while posting an 18.4% K% which was his worst mark since 2014. Yankee Stadium is a perfect venue for the lefty-swinging veteran, but Rizzo wasn't lights out aside from the home run pop.

Additionally, the 130 games he logged a season ago were the fewest he's recorded in a single season since 2012 when he was a 22-year-old sophomore. Rizzo is already dealing with lower back issues this spring, saying it's something he'll have to manage for the remainder of his career. At 33, expect this issue to worsen, not improve.

While Rizzo ranked in the 76th percentile in barrel rate (hence the home runs), he also ranked in the 57th percentile in average exit velocity and 56th in hard-hit rate. His .256 ISO from last season was not only a 40-point improvement over his career mark but his best since 2016. In other words, it's hard to envision seeing as much power from Rizzo this season as he did in 2022.

ATC projects Rizzo to miss nearly 30 games this season while seeing his home run total dip to 25 with similar runs and RBI totals that he put forth last season. That's solid production, but it's also an optimistic view of his health, considering his plate appearances have sunk every season since 2017.

Hitting in the middle of a lethal Yankees lineup should prop him up, but Rizzo will be fortunate to provide value at this ADP in 2023.

Jake Cronenworth, Padres

ADP - 186.01 PRK - 19 OVRK - 184

Jake Cronenworth will give you some positional flexibility as an option at both first and second base in 2023, but it would be surprising if he lived up to his prevailing ADP.

Cronenworth was an All-Star in 2021 when he hit .266 with 21 HR, 94 runs, an .800 OPS, and .341 wOBA across 152 games. However, he slipped to a .239 BA with 17 HR and a .722 OPS across 158 contests. The 29-year-old's value with his bat exceeded the league average via his 109 wRC+ but that figure represented a decline from his 116 mark the season prior.

The drop in power was a notable concern. Cronenworth went from posting a healthy .194 isolated power in 2021 to a .152 mark in 2022. It also appears the dip was no fluke as we take a look at his Statcast percentile rankings from a season ago.

Drafting a first baseman without the ability to barrel the ball up while making consistent hard contact isn't a winning strategy, especially in points leagues. His bat profile fits second base more than it does a corner infield spot, but the Padres' off-season signing of Xander Bogaerts forced several infielders into different spots for the upcoming season.

Cronenworth is certainly a tough sell at first base, but it could be tough to outperform his overall ADP in the 2023 campaign.

Trey Mancini, Cubs

ADP - 255.48 PRK - 28 OVRK - 246

Trey Mancini is a solid big-league hitter that has hit for power in the past, but playing time concerns, in addition to a dip in power, represent significant red flags with the Cubs this season.

After launching a career-high 35 HR alongside a .244 ISO in the 2019 season with Baltimore, Mancini sat out the 2020 season while receiving cancer treatment. He was still an above-average player at the plate upon his return in 2021 but hit just 21 home runs with a .176 ISO. He split last season between the O's and Astros, seeing his home run rate dip once again to 18, along with a diminished .152 ISO.

He's appeared in at least 143 games in each of his five full big-league seasons, but with Eric Hosmer and Matt Mervis in the picture at both first base and designated hitter, Mancin's playing time is sure to plunge, barring injuries. He could see some time in the corner outfield spots, but his clearest route to at-bats this season is at first base or DH.

As a result, ATC projects a career-low 120 games played and 503 plate appearances for the 31-year-old this summer. Furthermore, they're chalking him up for just 15 HR and 58 RBI. Keep in mind Maninci benefited from one of the friendliest home run parks in Baltimore earlier in his career before they changed their dimensions prior to last season.

Maninci doesn't possess the power and sure-fire playing time required in a first baseman on draft day.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Andrés Muñoz9 mins ago

Andres Munoz Activated On Tuesday
Daniel Jones10 mins ago

' Designed Runs May Not Decrease
Owen Miller14 mins ago

Not In Tuesday's Lineup
Byron Buxton21 mins ago

Placed On Injured List
Michael Thomas23 mins ago

Says He'll Be Ready For Start Of Training Camp
Dalvin Cook33 mins ago

Broncos Not Expected To Go After Dalvin Cook
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.34 mins ago

To Miss Another Game
Gunnar Henderson38 mins ago

Remains Out Once Again
Josh Jacobs40 mins ago

Not At Mandatory Minicamp
Matt Chapman42 mins ago

Not Starting On Tuesday
Francisco Alvarez46 mins ago

Absent On Tuesday
Chris Murphy1 hour ago

Red Sox Call Up Chris Murphy
Jacob deGrom2 hours ago

To Have Tommy John Surgery
AJ Smith-Shawver2 hours ago

To Make First MLB Start This Weekend
Randy Vásquez2 hours ago

Randy Vasquez Likely to Start Wednesday
Jake Fraley2 hours ago

Returns Against Dodgers
Elly De La Cruz2 hours ago

Batting Cleanup In MLB Debut
A.J. Puk2 hours ago

Reinstated From Injured List
Jorge Soler2 hours ago

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Chris Bassitt2 hours ago

Back From Paternity List
Alek Manoah3 hours ago

Blue Jays Send Struggling Alek Manoah Down
Freddy Peralta4 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency On Tuesday
New York Jets4 hours ago

Quinnen Williams Could Be Extended Before Training Camp
Sean Murphy4 hours ago

Back In The Starting Lineup Tuesday
Gus Edwards4 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Carlos Carrasco4 hours ago

Looking To Stay Strong Tuesday
Webb Simpson4 hours ago

Tries To Put PGA Nightmare Behind Him
Ezekiel Elliott4 hours ago

Could Sign With Team At Start Of Training Camp
Garrick Higgo4 hours ago

Continues To Struggle Heading Into June
Jesús Luzardo4 hours ago

Jesus Luzardo Looking To Bounce Back Tuesday
Buffalo Bills4 hours ago

Damar Hamlin A Full Participant In Tuesday's OTAs
PGA4 hours ago

Vincent Norman Can Make Some Birdies In Canada
Sahith Theegala4 hours ago

Wants To Bounce Back After PGA Championship
Michael Thomas4 hours ago

On The Field At OTAs
Justin Rose4 hours ago

Playing Better Golf Than Ever
Sam Burns5 hours ago

Among The Favorites In RBC Canadian Open Field
Trevor Lawrence7 hours ago

Enjoying First Normal Offseason
New York Jets7 hours ago

Jets Won't Hold Mandatory Minicamp
Miami Dolphins7 hours ago

Connor Williams Wants New Contract
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Won't Do 11-On-11 Drills Tuesday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7 hours ago

Ryan Jensen Not Participating In OTAs
Colt McCoy7 hours ago

Taking Part In OTAs
Washington Commanders7 hours ago

Chase Young "Absolutely" Remains A Starter
Jacoby Brissett8 hours ago

Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett Officially In Competition
Jonathan Marchessault18 hours ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 2 Victory
Adin Hill19 hours ago

Makes 29 Saves In Game 2 Victory
Justin Herbert19 hours ago

Chargers, Justin Herbert Discussing Contract Extension
Sergei Bobrovsky19 hours ago

Pulled In Game 2 Of Stanley Cup Final
Dallas Cowboys20 hours ago

Cowboys Negotiating With Trevon Diggs On Extension
Cole Caufield23 hours ago

Signs Eight-Year Deal To Remain In Montreal
Sergei Bobrovsky23 hours ago

The Expected Starter Monday
Indianapolis Colts23 hours ago

Isaiah Rodgers Sr. Being Investigated For Gambling
Adin Hill23 hours ago

The Likely Starter In Game 2
Ezekiel Elliott1 day ago

Cowboys Still Not Ruling Out Reunion With Ezekiel Elliott
Milwaukee Bucks1 day ago

Terry Stotts Joins Bucks Staff
Jeff Green1 day ago

Wants To Remain With Nuggets
LeBron James1 day ago

Kyrie Irving Wants LeBron James To Join Mavericks
Detroit Pistons1 day ago

Stephen Silas Joins Pistons Coaching Staff
Tyler Herro1 day ago

Still Experiencing Soreness
Amir Albazi1 day ago

Extends His Winning Streak
Daniel Pineda1 day ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Jesse Butler1 day ago

Suffers Knockout Loss
Victor Altamirano1 day ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Ketlen Souza1 day ago

Takes Submission Loss
Muhammad Naimov1 day ago

Shines With Second-Round TKO Win
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos1 day ago

Defeats Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Kevin Harvick1 day ago

Rounds Out The Top 10 At Gateway
Michael McDowell1 day ago

Scores Best Finish In Two Months
Carson Hocevar1 day ago

Strong Start Ends Early
Daniel Suarez1 day ago

Runs A Strong Race At Gateway
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Building Momentum
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Finishes Where He Began Sunday
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Eventually Moved Up To Fourth On Sunday
Joey Logano2 days ago

Finds Way To Third Place On Sunday
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Takes Second Place At Gateway
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Wins At Gateway For Third Win Of Season
Kai Kara-France2 days ago

Suffers Controversial Split-Decision Loss
Alex Caceres2 days ago

Pulls Off Action-Packed Co-Main-Event Win
Torrey Craig2 days ago

Knicks May Pursue Torrey Craig In Offseason
Kevin Love2 days ago

Expected To Start Sunday
Grant Williams2 days ago

Teams Expected To Pursue Grant Williams In Offseason
Evan Fournier2 days ago

Spurs Reportedly Interested In Evan Fournier
Caleb Martin2 days ago

Will Play Sunday Night
Anthony Duclair2 days ago

Scores Fourth Playoff Goal
Jack Eichel2 days ago

Opens Stanley Cup Finals With Two Assists
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Extends Point Streak With Another Goal
Jim Miller2 days ago

Adds To All-Time Wins Total With Big Knockout
Tim Elliott2 days ago

Dominates To Take Decision Win
Karine Silva2 days ago

Locks In Submission For First-Round Win
MMA2 days ago

Abubakar Nurmagomedov Takes Loss In Close Decision Call
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

The Favorite To Win Gateway After Strong Practice
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Really Happy With His Chances At Gateway
NASCAR2 days ago

B.J. McLeod Does Not Start Last This Week
Ty Dillon2 days ago

Starts 33rd At Gateway On Sunday
Gray Gaulding2 days ago

Debuts At Gateway On Sunday
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Begins 32nd For Gateway On Sunday
Ryan Preece2 days ago

May Have Long Afternoon Sunday
Erik Jones2 days ago

Another DFS Possibility For Gateway
Justin Haley2 days ago

Can Move Up On Sunday Again
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace Needs To Keep It Together Sunday
Austin Dillon2 days ago

Mired In Middle Of Pack Sunday
Gabe Vincent3 days ago

Good To Go For Game 2
Caleb Martin3 days ago

Questionable For Sunday Night
Bam Adebayo3 days ago

Available For Game 2
Tyler Herro3 days ago

Remains Out On Sunday Night
Julius Randle3 days ago

Has Ankle Surgery
Domantas Sabonis3 days ago

Not Ruling Out Surgery To Fix Thumb Issue
Danuel House3 days ago

Jr. Exercises Player Option
Phoenix Suns3 days ago

Suns Set To Hire Frank Vogel As New Head Coach
Amir Albazi4 days ago

Can Earn Biggest Victory Of His Career
Daniel Pineda4 days ago

Set For Co-Main-Event Matchup
Jared Gordon4 days ago

Jesse Butler Replaces Injured Jared Gordon
Victor Altamirano4 days ago

Set For Dangerous Task On Saturday
Ketlen Souza4 days ago

Set For UFC Debut
Muhammad Naimov4 days ago

Steps Into Octagon For Debut This Saturday
James Harden4 days ago

Nick Nurse Hopes James Harden Will Return To Philadelphia
Aleksej Pokusevski4 days ago

Suffers Right Humerus Fracture
Jimmy Butler4 days ago

Struggles In Game 1 Loss To Denver
Max Domi5 days ago

Hopes To Remain In Dallas
Eetu Luostarinen5 days ago

Expected To Be Available For Game 1
Patrick Kane5 days ago

Out 4-6 Months After Hip Surgery
Kai Kara-France6 days ago

Hoping To Secure Top Position With Main-Event Win
Alex Caceres6 days ago

Set For Explosive Co-Main-Event Bout
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF