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Who are the most overrated and underrated college basketball teams for the 2024-25 season based on preseason AP Polls? Ryan J. Goodson provides his analysis.
A new college basketball season is right around the corner and that means it's time to fire up the overrated/underrated machine once again. The preseason AP Poll dropped a few weeks ago, so we have a new ranking of teams to react to.
The season officially kicks off on Monday, November 4, 2024, with a much-anticipated matchup between No. 8 Baylor and No. 6 Gonzaga to cap it off, a rematch of the two teams who met in the 2021 NCAA Final.
Not a ton of surprises here, but some teams jump out at first glance. There are a ton of unanswered questions heading into the new season that will be figured out over the coming months, but before we dive into all of that here are a couple of my Overrated and Underrated teams based on the recent poll. Now let's dive in, shall we?
Overrated Teams
Iowa State Cyclones (N0. 5)
The biggest surprise of the 2023-24 season may have been the Cyclones, who took a seventh place preseason Big 12 Coaches’ Poll ranking to a second place conference finish (eighth nationally in KenPom) that was capped by a Sweet Sixteen appearance. They are led by a great young coach in T.J. Otzelberger, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the country.
Four starters return highlighted by point guard Tamin Lipsey who is a legitimate contender for All-American status. The defensive chops of the Ames, IA native are second to none, and his offensive game is slightly underrated as well. The ceiling of this team truly rests on the shoulders of Lipsey, because the offense was a problem last year and figures to be once again this season.
The Cyclones went large chunks of gameplay in 2023-24 where they struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket, and it finally caught up to them in the NCAA Tournament -- as it does to almost all offensively challenged teams. Otzelberger didn’t bring in enough complementary offensive pieces for this team to take the next step and reach the Final Four.
If rising sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic can take a massive leap this season then it may be a different story, but I’m not buying this top-five ranking for the Cyclones.
3⃣ The Floor General#Cyclones | #C5C | @TaminLipsey pic.twitter.com/6CuD7kgLzC
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) November 1, 2024
Purdue Boilermakers (N0. 14)
I almost went with Indiana here, but their talent intrigues me so much that it caused me to change course. I'm sticking with the Boilermakers out of the new gargantuan Big Ten Conference because of one equally gargantuan human, Zach Edey. The two-time national award winner finally left for the NBA, and his departure precipitated a seismic programmatic shift on both ends of the floor for Purdue.
The good thing here is that the Boilermakers have the best coach in the conference in Matt Painter, and maybe the best player in point guard Braden Smith -- the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. Betting against those two factors might be a fool's errand, but the rest of the roster just doesn’t excite me very much. It's made up of mostly glorified role players.
They have shooting, led by Smith’s backcourt mate Foster Loyer who improved drastically last season, but who else steps up? How do the others fare when a lot more responsibilities are placed on their shoulders? If anyone can keep this team contending for titles without Edey it’s Matt Painter, but I have several concerns with how this team adjusts in the post-Edey era.
“I think winning the Big Ten again… and getting to the Final Four is more important to me.” 😤
Braden Smith, named preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, says the Boilermakers have much bigger goals on their mind this season 👀 @TheAndyKatz pic.twitter.com/ZWZzYbBX3f
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) October 4, 2024
Underrated Teams
Duke Blue Devils (No. 7)
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer has done an admirable job filling the shoes of the greatest college basketball coach of all time, Mike Krzyzewski. Since he took over, Duke has gone 54-18 (.750) and made the Elite Eight last season before falling to NC State’s Cinderella magic. Almost everyone is gone from that team, besides combo guard Tyrese Proctor, but Scheyer brought in a loaded class that was No. 1 by a wide margin before the year.
The class is headlined by Cooper Flagg, who is already at -500 to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft per Bovada. Flagg is the best freshman to come into college basketball since Anthony Davis. It’s nearly impossible to top the numbers of Zion Williamson, but Flagg could have a bigger impact overall due to his ridiculous defensive versatility to go along with an offensive game that has a deep bag.
He is the real deal and is also joined by marksman Kon Knueppel, who very well might be a top-10 shooter in college basketball already. Khaman Maluach will immediately be one of the most imposing big men in the country as a freshman at 7-2, 250 lbs. The forgotten man here is Isaiah Evans, who routinely put up massive scoring performances as a high school senior last year.
This class is ridiculous - comparable to the trio of Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish back in 2019. Add in some well-fitting transfer pieces that can provide depth and veteran leadership with Sion James (Tulane), Mason Gillis (Purdue), and Maliq Brown (Syracuse) and you have what might be the best team in the country. I expect Duke to win the ACC with ease.
COOPER FLAGG AND ONE OFF THE DRIBBLE MIDRANGE.. WHAT CAN'T HE DO pic.twitter.com/BYI6wX8NFq
— g (@freewave3) October 19, 2024
Michigan Wolverines (unranked)
I had the Wolverines in this same spot heading into last year, and while that take crashed and burned quite aggressively, there's a lot to like about this program that found a new leader in Dusty May this offseason. May comes over from Florida Atlantic, most famous for his surprise Final Four run as a nine seed two years ago. He's a great adapter and roster builder while also deploying a suffocating defense.
Michigan needed a guy like May to come in and revitalize their program that was quickly losing steam under Juwan Howard. They have one of the more fun rosters in this league. Center Vladislav Goldin followed May to Ann Arbor, and he'll likely be the focal point on both ends of the floor. Danny Wolf comes over from Yale, who is one of the more versatile players in the country.
Think of a poor man's Robbie Avila. I'm so intrigued with how May will deploy these two seven-footers, and I have faith that he'll do it successfully. Tre Donaldson has been a productive player for Auburn in limited minutes and is a popular breakout candidate heading into his third year of college basketball.
He may start at the point, so Dusty could opt to go with Rubin Jones, a four-year player out of North Texas who improved his play-making abilities drastically last year. I also have it on good authority that incoming freshman three-star guard L.J. Cason is the real deal. He looked great in Michigan's recent scrimmage vs. Oakland and should get major minutes early.
Former five-star guard Nimari Burnett and versatile forward Will Tschetter also return to give the Wolverines added pop on offense. This team won't be competing for a national championship, but the more I study the roster the more I like it. Add in Dusty May and a great staff to lead them, and you have what should be a team that is on the cusp of top-25 status compared to their ninth-place rank in the Big Ten coaches' poll.
Transfer Portal Breakdown
Danny Wolf - 7’0” 255 pound forward
1st team All Ivy League out of Yale pic.twitter.com/87fbFaR5R4
— ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT (@itsAntWright) March 31, 2024
Underrated Honorable Mentions
St. John's Red Storm (No. 2 in Others receiving votes)
Will year two bring better results for head coach Rick Pitino with a better roster? Sign me up. I can't wait to see Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith wreak havoc on opposing backcourts. This will be a scary team and one that could challenge for a first-place finish in the conference if UConn has some speed bumps along the way.
Kansas State Wildcats (No 6. in Others receiving votes)
Jerome Tang hit the portal HARD this offseason. The Wildcats have maybe my favorite crop of transfers with Dug McDaniel, Coleman Hawkins, Achor Achor, Ugonna Onyenso, and Brenden Hausen coming to Manhattan. This team will look completely different, but I think Tang will get them to gel nicely. Look for McDaniel to be the second coming of Markquis Nowell.
