Offensive Outliers From Week 9 - Coaching Matters

November 10, 2021

Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 10 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

We now enter the ninth week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 9, we saw stat lines such as the Carolina Panthers wide receivers combining for 40 receiving yards, the Denver Broncos running backs combining for 38 carries, and the New York Giants wide receivers seeing just four targets.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers

Matt Rhule & Joe Brady

The Carolina Panthers wide receiver room had another subpar week this week, this time against the New England Patriots where they combined for just five receptions on 13 targets for 40 receiving yards. On the season this group has now totaled 103 receptions (11.44 per game) on 187 targets (20.78 per game) for 1221 receiving yards (135.67 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game). As we talked about last week, going into the season Matt Rhule and Joe Brady were expected to be among the better coaches for wide receivers, and the 2021 Panthers wide receiver room hasn't lived up to those expectations. There will be better performances from this group than this past Sunday, and there's even some possible room for growth on the season averages based on what we've previously seen from Rhule & Brady's offense.

Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Brandon Zylstra, and Terrace Marshall Jr.

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Jason Garrett

The New York Giants pulled off the win against the Las Vegas Raiders, but the team's wide receiver room combined for just three receptions on four targets for 37 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has now totaled 123 receptions (13.66 per game) on 194 targets (21.56 per game) for 1592 receiving yards (176.88 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.44 per game). For the most part, the New York Giants wide receiver room has been outperforming expectations, with the exception of their weak performance in the touchdowns department. There is unlikely to be another game this season where this group receives as little work as it did against the Raiders, and there could be a potential short-term buy-low opportunity on Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Kenny Golladay this week if the fantasy managers in your league overreact to Sunday's poor performance.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Collin Johnson, and Dante Pettis

New England Patriots Wide Receivers

Josh McDaniels

The Patriots' wide receiver room combined for four receptions on eight targets for 42 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns this past Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. On the season this group has now totaled 103 receptions (11.44 per game) on 161 targets (17.89 per game) for 1290 receiving yards (143.33 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.44 per game). Based on this information as well as the information provided in the table above of Josh McDaniels' previous wide receiver rooms, it seems that there may still be some potential room for growth from the Patriots wide receiver room this season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, and N'Keal Harry

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Fantasy players this impacts: Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, J.J. Taylor, and Rhamondre Stevenson

The Denver Broncos running backs combined for 38 carries, 191 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions, three targets, 15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys. On the season this group has now totaled 207 carries (23 per game), 950 rushing yards (105.56 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.56 per game), 43 receptions (4.78 per game), 52 targets (5.78 per game), 301 receiving yards (43 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.33 per game). The season per-game averages seem relatively sustainable, but you shouldn't expect performances like this past Sunday every week.

The Arizona Cardinals running backs went off against the San Francisco 49ers as they combined for 31 carries, 138 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, five receptions, five targets, 77 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has now totaled 207 carries (23 per game), 951 rushing yards (105.67 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (1.33 per game), 40 receptions (4.44 per game), 47 targets (5.22 per game), 322 receiving yards (35.78 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.11 per game). This group is currently running on the higher side of what we'd expect from a Kliff Kingsbury running back room, so if you are looking to sell high on James Conner - now would be the time.

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