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Thunder Dan Palyo looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 3 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Welcome to the first look at the Week 3 NFL DFS main slate! Week 2 was pretty good for me as I was able to win a tournament, place in most of my contests, and win all my cash games! It doesn't always work out that perfectly every week, but it felt good to have all my weekly research come together to produce some winning results.
This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 24. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
Week 3 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate, like last week we have another Monday night doubleheader so any teams playing Thursday, Sunday night, or Monday won't show up on this list!
Oh, and here is my winning lineup from the $3 SE on DraftKings. Too bad I didn't have it in the Milly Maker (I don't play the Milly) because I had the winning lineup beat by a few hundredths of a point!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 3: Main Slate Only
- Chiefs- 30.5
- Cowboys - 28
- Chargers- 27.5
- Dolphins- 27.25
- Jaguars - 26.75
- Vikings 26.5
The game with a total that dwarfs all the others this week is the potential shootout between the Vikings and Chargers. Right now the total sits at 54 points, which is a full six points higher than the next closest game (MIA-DEN) at 48. Both teams are 0-2 and looking for their first win of the season. Both have good offenses and some very questionable defenses as they've combined to allow 117 points to their opponents through the first two weeks of the season.
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Two Weeks: Points Per Game
- Cowboys - 35
- Packers - 31
- Dolphins - 30
- Chargers - 29
- Commanders - 27.5
- Bills - 27
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Two Weeks: Points Allowed Per Game
- Cowboys - 5
- Browns - 14.5
- Chiefs - 15
- Saints, Bills - 16
- Ravens - 16.5
This number from the Browns is even more impressive when you consider that two of Pittsburgh's touchdowns last night were scored by their defense. They have allowed just one offensive touchdown through two games.
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Two Weeks
- Dolphins - 462.5
- Lions - 393
- Chargers - 387.5
- Bills - 382
- Browns - 379
- Vikings - 371.5
The Week of the Blowout?
We have a lot of heavy favorites this week. In fact, only five games currently have spreads of six points or less (for me, a touchdown favorite is a heavy favorite in the NFL). They are...
Browns (-3) vs. Titans
Patriots (-3) @ Jets
Lions (-3) @ Falcons
Packers (-2) vs. Saints
Chargers (-1.5) @ Vikings
The combination of a high total and a tight spread is what dreams are made of when it comes to GPP game stacks. This Vikings-Chargers game is going to be fantasy gold!
Justin Jefferson confirmed best wide receiver and linebacker in the league
(Watch the hit) pic.twitter.com/ayUbrhuQBa
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 10, 2023
Week 3 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. With two weeks of games now under our belt, let's look just at 2023 data here and I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Dolphins (1) @ Broncos (28)
- Chiefs (12) vs. Bears (30)
- Vikings (14) vs. Chargers (32)
- Falcons (15) @ Lions (23)
- Cowboys (20)@ Cardinals (17)
Most Passing Yards Per Game Through Two Weeks
- Dolphins - 355
- Vikings - 337
- Lions - 283
- Texans - 266.5
- Chiefs - 262
Tyreek Hill is over 200 Yards 🤯
pic.twitter.com/noVNctSuXe— High Point Sports (@HPointSports) September 10, 2023
Most Passing Yards Per Game Allowed Through Two Weeks
- Chargers - 333
- Seahawks - 325
- Colts - 287
- Titans - 281.5
- Bears - 277
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Dolphins (1) @ Broncos (19)
- Falcons (6) @ Lions (13)
- Jaguars (24) vs. Texans (32)
- Chargers (4) @ Vikings (27)
- Broncos (8) vs. Dolphins (29)
Most Rushing Yards Per Game Through Two Weeks
- Browns - 202
- Falcons - 170.5
- Chargers - 147
- Ravens - 144
- Bills - 140
Yes, the Buffalo Bills are a top-5 rushing offense so far! Thanks in part to a huge day on the ground against a bad Vegas team last week. The Browns lost Nick Chubb last night, but Jerome Ford ripped off a long TD run against the Steelers as Ford and Chubb both finished with averages of 6 yards per carry on the night.
No matter how good you said Bijan Robinson was at draft time...he's better!pic.twitter.com/pnZ815Qi6I
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) September 18, 2023
Most Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game Through Two Weeks
- Packers - 166.5
- Vikings- 166
- Dolphins - 160.5
- Panthers - 132
- Patriots - 121
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Chargers (Cousins), Cardinals (Prescott), Jaguars (Stroud), Lions (Ridder), Vikings (Herbert)
RB - Panthers (Walker III), Dolphins (Javonte Williams), Bears (Pacheco), Packers (Jamaal Williams), Seahawks (Sanders)
WR - Chargers (Jefferson), Colts (Ravens WRs), Titans (Cooper), Seahawks (Thielen), Ravens (Pittman Jr.)
TE - Dolphins (Trautman), Lions (Pitts), Jaguars (Schultz), Jets (Henry), Broncos (Smythe)
DEF - Browns (TEN), Bears (KC), Patriots (NYJ), Jaguars (HOU), Jets (NE)
Watching Kenneth Walker is a fun ride pic.twitter.com/NULi6rp4n4
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 18, 2023
Week 3 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
The Cheap Stack section has been pretty useful I think as we had some more solid hits last week. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans combined for a big day as our second-cheapest stack, while Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel were in the winning lineup in the Milly Maker (with Puka Nacua coming back).
Cheap Stacks (FD, DK)
- Stroud - Collins (13.5k, 10.6k)
- Ridder - London (13.5k, 10k)
- Carr - Shaheed (12.9, 9.7k)
- Jones - Bourne (12.7k, 10.4k)
- Goff - Reynolds (14.5k, 10.7k)
Jared Goff to Josh Reynolds Passing TD (4/2) pic.twitter.com/ZD2plZ4N7Y
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023) September 17, 2023
C.J Stroud and Nico Collins had a big day against the Colts, and could end up being in pass-heavy scripts pretty often this season with a terrible defense on the other side of the ball. Desmond Ridder won't get the volume, but connected with London for a TD last week. Shaheed is Carr's third WR, but is still super cheap and was productive again last night against the Panthers. Jared Goff and Josh Reynolds won me some money this weekend and I think we can keep going back to Reynolds (and LaPorta) until Jameson Williams returns, especially in these good matchups. FD jacked up Reynolds' price to 7k, while he remains underprice at 4.2k on DK.
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Anthony Richardson scored two rushing touchdowns before leaving with a concussion last week. He's in the protocol and don't be surprised if we see Gardner Minshew again this week.
RB: Austin Ekeler is "without a timetable" which doesn't sound good (but is very vague). Aaron Jones missed last week's game, while Travis Etienne Jr. left with cramps. I am guessing ETN is fine, but Jones's status is unknown at this time. David Montgomery is looking like he will probably miss this week after leaving the Lions' game early on Sunday. He was very productive before leaving, but we could see the first big workload for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (though Detroit did sign Zonovan Knight already). Gibbs is second in the NFL in broken tackles with six, despite handling just 14 carries in his first two games. Jamaal Williams left last night's game early with a hamstring injury.
With Nick Chubb out of the season, Jerome Ford makes for a compelling punt since neither site had the ability to price him up as they released the slates before the Monday Night games. Even if Kareem Hunt does sign with Cleveland, they have stated that Ford will be the feature back. It's a terrible matchup against the Titans run defense, but Ford was impressive last night against Pittsburgh and has some pass-catching chops, too, he will be a hard fade in cash games.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown was dealing with cramps on Sunday, so no reason to think he doesn't return this week. Jaylen Waddle was concussed but is already moving through the protocol according to his coach - his status will be key as we will want some Miami pieces this week against a Denver pass defense that got throttled by Washington.
Christian Watson has yet to appear for the Packers this season. Brandin Cooks missed last week's game against the Jets for Dallas, while Zay Jones is day-to-day for the Jags. Darnell Mooney appears to have avoided a serious leg injury, but he could miss this week for Chicago. OBJ hasn't done much for the Ravens this year so far, but he should be good to go after a minor injury of his own.
TE: Logan Thomas is dealing with a concussion for the Commanders. Their other tight end, John Bates, caught three passes for 46 yards and could absorb some of Thomas's targets if Logan can't go this week.
Alright, that's it for Week 3 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful -- so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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