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NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings

Week 1 is finally here! There was a time when the idea of NFL Week 1 seemed like a pipe dream, but we are here. It is obviously a bit different this season as there was no preseason action, practices were a bit different, and just the overwhelming cloud surrounding these times in our lives. Even with all those hurdles, we are finally here. I will be with you weekly, giving you my top cash game values to help build your winning cash game lineups.

With no preseason there are more question marks than ever entering Week 1. There are rookies that I would love to use this week that I feel have more GPP appeal than Cash with the question marks. There were obviously roster changes as well as coaching changes this offseason that can definitely change the way the teams play. Week 1 will be about navigating the minefields and taking much safer plays in cash.

This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season.

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Week 1 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays

Carson Wentz, PHI @ WAS | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,700

Wentz heads into Week 1 healthy, well supposedly healthy. He was dealing with a soft tissue injury during camp but is supposed to be good to go for Week 1. This is a really good thing as the Eagles have a great matchup to start the season versus division rival Washington Football Team. Last year Wentz averaged close to 25 points per game versus WAS and over his career has averaged at nearly 19 a game. Seems like a solid floor for cash to me. It gets better as WAS D in 2019 allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game and adding Chase Young is not enough to make they will suddenly shut down the passing game.

It gets better as the Eagles have thrown the ball 16% more when favored and they walk into Sunday's action as 6.5 point road favorites with a 25.5 team total. Wentz will have an interesting starting receiving core of DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Greg Ward, but that does not matter as he will have his man Zach Ertz and his double in Dallas Goedert at tight end. Wentz brings a really strong floor into the Week 1 action with a nice ceiling, everything we want in a cash game quarterback without having to break the bank.

Cam Newton, NE vs MIA | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300

When looking at cash game quarterbacks we look for favored quarterbacks in strong matchups and it really helps if they can run a little as that helps with their production floor. Cam may not run like he used to, but we do know he loves running it in for touchdowns when they get close to the goal line and we know the Patriots loved doing that with Tom Brady as well. He heads to South Beach to open the season against a Miami team that struggled mightily versus the passing game last season.

They allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game and over 280 passing yards per game. The Dolphins did strengthen their defense with CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, and DE Emmanuel Ogbah. The Patriots love to run the ball if in the lead, but will also want to prove a point with Brady out of town. Week in and week out Cam brings a strong floor into his games and Week 1 sets up as a nice matchup to do just that in cash games.

 

Week 1 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays

Antonio Gibson, WAS vs PHI | DK: $4,000, FD: $4,600

Gibson will be the chalk of chalk when it comes to cash games this week. When WAS released Adrian Peterson the fantasy world went abuzz with Gibson love. The rookie out of Memphis was more of a wide receiver the running back, but WAS has their mindset as using him in the backfield. Regardless of how many carries he gets, his passing catching ability really strengthens his floor.

If Gibson can get 10-15 carries and 5+ targets he will outproduce his price tag in a big way. WAS is also a 6.5 point home underdog which means they should be playing from behind, throwing more, and potentially even more dump-offs to Gibson. He is a near must play this week in cash unless some crazy news comes out about playing time and/or usage for Gibson.

Chris Carson, SEA @ ATL | DK: $6,200 FD: $7,200

In cash games you will want to get Christian McCaffrey into your lineups and will likely play Gibson as well, that leaves running back for the FLEX spot. Carson is a name that should be in consideration at his cheap price point. The Seahawks heads into Sunday's game as 2 point road favorites with a team total of 24.5. The game should be a back and forth battle that should keep the Seahawks running the ball and even dumping it off to Carson.

The Falcons have struggled with running backs in recent years, especially backs that can catch the ball. Towards the end of last season, the Falcons allowed runnings back to score close to 22 points per game on 18 carries and five receptions. Carson should see plenty of action on Sunday and brings a strong cash game floor into action.

Kerryon Johnson, DET vs CHI | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,600

Am I absolutely in love with this play? Nope, but I am a realist and I do realize a starting running back in a close game brings a great floor into cash games at his price tag. Johnson is the starting running back for the Lions with Deandre Swift injured and newly signed Adrian Peterson still getting acclimated to the team.

Johnson will face a Bears team that allowed nearly one rushing touchdown per game last season as well as allowing 41% more fantasy points to running backs over their last nine road games. This is purely a pricepoint, meets potential volume play for Johnson. He should get a bulk of the touches and put up double-digit fantasy performance, outperforming his cheap price tag.

 

Week 1 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays

Terry McLaurin, WAS vs PHI | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500

McLaurin heads into Week 1 as Dwayne Haskins go-to wide receiver and should receive many many targets this season. With WAS being near touchdown home dogs there is reason to suspect a lot of pass attempts for Haskins and many should be targeted at McLaurin. When Haskins took over as the starter in Week 8, McLaurin was targeted 6.62 times per game and caught 4.25 passes per game.

He scored double-digit fantasy points in five of the eight games including two monster games to finish out the season. Over the Eagles last nine games on the road they have allowed 33% more fantasy points to wide receivers. Washington should be throwing plenty in this matchup and McLaurin should be a major benefactor on Sunday.

Allen Lazard, GB @ MIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,500

Lazard enters the 2020 season as the WR2 in the Green Bay offense. That could be a major player in a game that could see a bit of a back and forth shootout. Devante Adams can not catch everything and Aaron Jones will not run the ball 40+ times. Aaron Rodgers will sling it around the field and try and take advantage of a suspect Minnesota secondary.

A secondary that allowed almost 173 receiving yards to wide receivers last season, which was 25th in the NFL. Lazard may be a bit risky for cash games, but at his price point, especially on DK, he brings a nice floor to your roster.

Greg Ward, PHI @ WAS | DK: $4,200, FD: $4,800

With all the injuries to the Eagles receiving core, Ward should slide right back into a role he flourished in to finish the 2019 season. He started the last three games last season and saw at least five targets per game. He is currently WR2 on the Eagles depth chart and should be apart of a very productive offensive day for the Eagles.

Wentz can look to Ward in a lot of shorter yardage situations, but Ward can also stretch the field when the defense is focused on DJax on the other side. Ward is uber-cheap this week and allows you to roster CMC and Michael Thomas when he is paired with one of these other value plays.

 

Week 1 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays

Hayden Hurst, ATL vs SEA | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,200

Let's head back to the potential shootout in Atlanta and look into the new Falcons tight end, Hurst. The Falcons acquired Hurst and he is in line to take over where Austin Hooper left off. Matt Ryan has been a fan of targeting his tight ends, especially in the red zone and that could lead to a lot of fantasy goodness for Hurst. The buzz out of Falcons camp (I hate saying that, but that is all we have this season) is they are loving Hurst and he is building a strong connection with Ryan.

Last season the Seahawks were a sieve to tight ends and that could continue Sunday as they focus on Julio and Ridley on the outsides. They allowed over 75 receiving yards to tight ends last season and in games where they were favored, usually meaning the opponent had to keep up, they allowed 28% more fantasy points to the tight end position. Usually, I will pay down at TE, but if the funds are available Hurst is in play.

Chris Herndon, NYJ @ BUF | DK: $3,300, FD: $4,800

Throughout the draft season, I have been a major Herndon fan. Honestly, I have been a creepy Jets offense fan. The Jets do not have a ton of options in the passing game after Jamison Crowder and newly added Breshad Perriman. Herndon should be a major piece of the Jets offense and should also be used as a nice safety valve for Sam Darnold. Herndon is your cash punt at tight end if you are looking to punt.



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