Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


NFL DFS Prop Picks for Week 12 (11/24/19) - Monkey Knife Fight

Heading into the stretch run of the NFL season, games take on more importance. Teams are jockeying for playoff position and the teams that are on the outside looking in are running out of time to make up ground.

There are a bunch of games this week that involve contenders and pretenders but there are still some exciting head-to-head matchups between teams in the playoff mix, including the Seattle Seahawks at the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys at the New England Patriots and, in the Sunday nighter, the Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers.

The question when making prop picks is which games might offer better potential value? Is it the lopsided affairs, some with double-digit point spreads, or is it the fiercely competitive matchups that might swing on a field goal one way or the other?

Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider before making your Week 12 picks on Monkey Knife Fight.

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 



View Contest

Matt Ryan OVER 309.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a tall order, expecting at least 310 passing yards. Ryan is averaging 295.9 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 310 yards five times in nine games but the biggest draw is that he’s going up against a Buccaneers team that is allowing 290.9 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the league. With question marks in the Atlanta running game, that’s all the more reason to believe that Ryan can hit the over.

Jameis Winston OVER 305.5 PASSING YARDS – An equal opportunity quarterback who creates chances for both teams, Winston has thrown at least 40 passes and for 300-plus yards in five straight games. Atlanta ranks 27th with 261.7 passing yards allowed per game, which is bad enough to believe that this game can be a high-scoring affair in which the Bucs and Falcons trade opportunities moving up and down the field.

Drew Brees UNDER 285.5 PASSING YARDS – There is always the risk that the Saints could be winning so comfortably that they do not need to pass, as was the case last week, but it was the first time in four complete games this season that Brees was held under 285 passing yards. Trouble is, this week the Saints face a Panthers Defense that is above average in terms of pass defense (233.6 passing yards per game, 7.1 yards per attempt) so a second straight week on the under seems reasonable.

Russell Wilson UNDER 269.5 PASSING YARDS – Of course Wilson has the potential to blow past this number but he’s thrown for 270 or more yards four times this season. The Eagles Defense is right around the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense, allowing 237.5 passing yards per game and 7.1 passing yards per attempt, so the under makes sense this week.

Derek Carr OVER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – As the Raiders offense has evolved this season, Carr has passed for at least 285 yards in four of the past five games. The Jets have a formidable run defense but are a little more susceptible to the passing attack so look for Carr to continue his upwardly productive trend.

Baker Mayfield UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Dolphins are not particularly strong against the pass, allowing 8.1 yards per passing attempt, they are losing enough that teams only throw 31.5 passes per game against them. In the past six games, Mayfield has thrown for more than 260 yards just once and that was in a loss at Denver in which Mayfield threw 42 passes. So long as the Browns get into the lead they shouldn’t need to throw enough for Mayfield to hit the over.


Michael Thomas -4.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones – Thomas’ consistency has just been relentless. He’s been held under 89 receiving yards in one game all season and has gone for more than 110 yards in four straight games. Jones obviously has the talent to put up numbers and has the benefit of playing against Tampa Bay this week but it’s hard to go against Thomas.

Allen Robinson +0.5 receptions vs. Mike Evans – There is an up and down nature to Evans’ usage, and he’s been held to four catches or fewer six times this season, and while it’s just about impossible to trust the Bears’ quarterback situation, Robinson has been mostly reliable, recording at least five catches in seven of 10 games.

Nick Chubb -17.5 rushing yards vs. Christian McCaffrey – It might seem counter-intuitive to pick against McCaffrey, who is averaging a league-leading 105.9 rushing yards per game, but Chubb isn’t far behind at 101.1 rushing yards per game and the opposition this week really makes the difference. Chubb goes against a Miami Dolphins team that has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game, the second highest rate in the league, whereas McCaffrey faces a New Orleans team that is allowing 85.3 rushing yards per game, third best in the league.



View Contest


Tom Brady UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Facing a Cowboys pass defense that is relatively strong (216.9 passing yards per game, 6.8 yards per attempt) with a dinged-up receiving corps is not ideal for a big Brady passing day. Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu were hurt last week and if they aren’t healthy that will leave Brady with precious few options in the passing game.

Nick Foles OVER 256.5 PASSING YARDS – Foles returned to the Jaguars lineup and threw for 296 yards last week. This week, he goes up against a Titans team giving up 256 passing yards per game, ranking 22nd in the league. That seems favorable enough for Foles to keep it rolling for another week.

Julian Edelman OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS – With injuries hitting the Patriots receiving corps, Edelman should see a lot of targets and he’s already had double-digit targets in five straight games. Last week was the only time in the past six games that Edelman failed to record at least seven catches.

Derrick Henry OVER 84.5 RUSHING YARDS – Week 10 brought a classic monster game from Henry, as he rumbled for 188 yards against Kansas City, but he’s run for 85 yards or more just four times this season. However, the Jaguars are susceptible against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry so this might be another big game for the Titans running back.

Amari Cooper UNDER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Week to week consistency is not exactly the hallmark of Cooper’s performance and yet he’s averaging 88.6 receiving yards per game. The Cowboys will likely need to throw a bit to keep pace with the Patriots and Cooper remains their most reliable target but New England doesn’t surrender passing yards easily.


Julian Edelman -0.5 receiving yards vs. Amari Cooper – Edelman is the more consistent performer and the Patriots are more likely to lean on him. The fact that the Patriots are allowing just 152.6 passing yards per game is another reason to like Edelman in this head-to-head matchup.

Ezekiel Elliott +4.5 rushing yards vs. Derrick Henry – Elliott has had a tough couple of weeks, rushing for 92 yards on 36 carries in the past two games, but he does have five 100-yard rushing games this season and that makes him a rather lively underdog against Henry.


More Weekly DFS Analysis

More Recent Articles


ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More

2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More

Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More

How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More

Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More

Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More

James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More

2020 Relief Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Often regarded as an inferior fantasy baseball format, points leagues offer a different style of boasting over your friends or coworkers similar to that of fantasy football. These setups are typically head-to-head formats for a one-week stretch where the player with the most points gets a win. Easy right? While it's true that roster construction... Read More

2019 Barrel Breakouts: Who's For Real and Who's Next?

As pitchers and catchers get even closer to reporting and most fantasy leagues prepare for their drafts, everybody is looking for a leg up on the competition - a way to get in on a guy before everybody else does. In this article, we're going to look for a way to identify hitters who improved... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More

Second Year Player Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More