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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for November 6th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The Baltimore Ravens are in Los Angeles to face the Rams on Monday Night Football, a compelling matchup between two teams in playoff contention.
The Ravens are rolling, winners of six straight on their way to an 8-2 record atop the AFC North. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is an MVP candidate, and quite possibly the frontrunner. In three weeks since their bye week, the Ravens have won all three games and scored a total of 127 points. They can still play defense but Jackson’s ability to lead an explosive offense makes the Ravens especially dangerous.
Last year’s NFC representative in the Super Bowl, the Rams have fallen from grace somewhat. They are no longer a formidable offensive juggernaut thanks to questions about the health of running back Todd Gurley and the consistency of quarterback Jared Goff. Nevertheless, the Rams have won three of their past four games on the way to a 6-4 record. In the quest for a playoff spot, the Rams can’t afford to lose this game. They are already fighting uphill to catch the likes of the Green Bay Packers or Minnesota Vikings, which both have eight wins and one of which looks like it will be a wildcard entry into the postseason.
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Here are some angles to consider before making your prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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BALTIMORE-L.A. RAMS
OVER/UNDER
Lamar Jackson UNDER 229.5 PASSING YARDS – He might very well be the favorite for the National Football League’s Most Valuable Player and yet Jackson has been held under 230 passing yards in five of the past six games. He obviously does lots of damage on the ground, averaging 78.1 rushing yards per game, but Jackson’s passing yardage totals have been relatively modest. The Rams allow 235.5 passing yards per game, which is about middle of the pack, but they are among the more efficient pass defenses, allowing 6.7 passing yards per attempt, which ranks fifth.
Jared Goff UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams quarterback is averaging 278.3 passing yards per game and faces a Ravens team that is allowing 238.6 passing yards per game but the Rams have been stumbling lately, at least in part because they have been missing wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods recently, too. When everything is going right for the Rams passing game, Goff can put up big numbers, but the Ravens Defense is solid and there is reason to be skeptical about the direction Goff’s game has been heading.
Todd Gurley OVER 14.5 FANTASY POINTS – There was a long stretch during this season when it appeared that Gurley was cooked and he was getting a dozen carries per game but he did get a season-high 25 carries for 97 yards against Chicago last week, and that’s a tough defense. It’s hard to bank on Gurley getting enough usage but it’s probably the best plan of attack for the Rams if they want to compete in this game.
Cooper Kupp UNDER 15.5 FANTASY POINTS – When Kupp was reeling off 100-yard games week after week this would have been an easy over but he’s surpassed 60 yards receiving once in the past five games – sure it was against Cincinnati when he put up 220 yards and a touchdown – but otherwise Kupp has had trouble generating consistent numbers, even with other receivers out of the Los Angeles lineup.
Mark Andrews OVER 12.5 FANTASY POINTS – This isn’t an easy call because there are some weeks in which Andrews is not a huge part of the Baltimore passing attack – he’s had four receptions or fewer in three of the past four games – but he’s also scored six touchdowns and a touchdown with average receptions and yardage (4.8 receptions and 59.8 receiving yards, respectively) that would move him into the over.
RAPID FIRE
Cooper Kupp -0.5 receptions vs. Mark Andrews – As much as Kupp has been slumping recently, he’s targeted so much more than Andrews that its’s hard to pick against the Rams receiver. On average, Andrews is targeted seven times per game and catches 4.8 passes per game, while Kupp has been targeted 9.4 times per game, leading to 6.1 receptions per game.
Todd Gurley -8.5 rushing yards vs. Mark Ingram – As much as the Ravens rely on the league’s top rushing game, Ingram tends to be just a part of that total. Ingram and Gurley have both run for more than 50 yards five times this season but there is a consistency to Ingram’s usage, as he has fallen between 12 and 16 carries in eight of 10 games, that leaves a window open for Gurley to get an edge if the Rams choose to use Gurley like they did last week when he had 25 carries against the Bears.
