NFL Kickoff: Betting Picks, Player Props and Parlays for Seahawks vs. Patriots (2026)

September 8, 2026

Expert NFL betting picks for Wednesday 9/9/26. Player props, same game parlays, and game picks for NFL Kickoff game between the Seahawks and Patriots.

Football fans have been waiting for this game for seven months. Americans love the NFL; we simply can't get enough football - and the league knows it. They've created dual openers with two island games to kick off Week 1, and have placed a rematch of last year's Super Bowl front and center.

While some fans may tune in just to watch some big plays and hard hits, many will watch to track the players on their fantasy teams and to track their first bets of the season. I've been covering the league from a fantasy and betting perspective now for long enough that it's tough for me to watch a game without a personal rooting interest (and the only team I refuse to bet on is my own).

Football and sports betting are more intertwined than ever before, and as long as the industry is regulated and bettors are responsible, I don't see a problem with that! It's just the first game, and you should probably go light on NFL bets in Week 1 as a general rule of thumb. But my job is to give you some information to chew on and my best betting advice, and you decide how many wagers you make on opening night. These are my favorite bets for the NFL opener between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots on Wednesday, September 9.

NFL Kickoff Odds and Spread

New England Patriots (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-170 ML)

Over/Under (44.5)

The defending champion Seahawks get the home-field advantage tonight, as they'll get to drop their Super Bowl LX banner at Lumen Field before kickoff. Seattle's home crowd, famously known as "the 12th man," will be loud and rowdy tonight, and they have a lot to be excited about as the Seahawks bring back the vast majority of their championship team and are viewed as one of the top contenders to go back to the Super Bowl this season.

It's no surprise that Seattle is favored, as they handled the Patriots last February and coasted to a 29-13 victory. While the Patriots were a great story in 2025 of a franchise that rebuilt themselves into a contender only a few years after their legendary run came to an end, it was pretty clear that they were overmatched in that game and that they probably overachieved as a whole. New England had a soft schedule and won the AFC title without having to face Baltimore or Buffalo. Kansas City disappeared from the postseason, and the AFC was its weakest in years.

While the Seahawks roster barely turned over (though we have to acknowledge that Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III did leave for Kansas City), the Patriots made some major additions on both sides of the ball. New England added safety Kevin Byard III and edge player Dre'Mont Jones through free agency on defense, while also upgrading their offense by signing left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and receiver Romeo Doubs.

The biggest move had to be the trade for A.J. Brown, who comes over from Philadelphia to give quarterback Drake Maye a legitimate high-end receiver with a history of production.

So the question for this game is, "Did New England do enough to improve their roster and close the gap with Seattle, who clearly dominated them the last time they met?"

NFL Kickoff Game Picks

Note: I'll be using odds from both sportsbooks AND prediction markets this season. Not every book or market is available in every state, but always hunt for the best odds on every bet.

Seattle won eight of ten games that they played at home last season, including their final seven in a row that included two huge playoff victories over division rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles. They finished the year with the top-rated defense in the NFL, a unit that is loaded with versatile defenders and allows them to play a lot of defensive backs to handle multiple receiver sets from opposing offenses, while still being able to stop the run.

And they didn't just "stop the run"; they totally shut it down with the best DVOA run defense in the league by a wide margin. The gap between Seattle and the second-rated run defense, Houston, was the same size as the gap between Houston and the 14th-ranked Miami Dolphins. I don't think we can overstate how good this unit was, and they bring back everyone this year. Head Coach Mike McDonald has molded this team in his image, and the defense is the identity of the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle does have to replace their play caller, as Klint Kubiak took the head coaching job in Las Vegas. Brian Fleury will take over as offensive coordinator, coming over from San Francisco, where he was an offensive assistant for Kyle Shanahan since 2020 and served as the run game coordinator last year. As far as their personnel goes, the Seahawks return their entire starting offensive line, quarterback Sam Darnold, and all their top skill position players with the exception of KW3, who will be replaced by rookie Jadarian Price. Zach Charbonnet remains out as he recovers from the injury that sidelined him at the end of last season, but is expected to return later in the season.

My prediction might be pretty boring, but I can't help but love the Seahawks here to cover at home. While I don't love having to take the extra half point at -3.5, my model has Seattle favored by as much as 8.5 points. Is there potential for a Super Bowl hangover? Sure, but I really don't think we'll see it from McDonald's team, and it's far more likely that they'll be disciplined and focused on getting the job done.

While the Patriots may have made a big splash in adding A.J. Brown and Doubs in the offseason, I still think they'll struggle to run the football and that Seattle will be able to control field position with their top-notch defense and special teams. It might not get as ugly as the Super Bowl got (Seattle led 19-0 in the fourth quarter), but I like the Seahawks in this one, and I feel they still have the advantage on New England on both sides of the ball.

You can buy a half point at most books to take Seattle -3, but I'll go on the record that I'm just fine laying 3.5 points to get better odds.

As far as the total goes, my angle here is the first half under, as I think that the offenses both start pretty slow. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses early in the year, as starters barely play in the preseason and offenses usually need more time to gel and execute efficiently.

You can also look at the fact that Seattle shut New England out for three quarters in the Super Bowl and led just 9-0 at halftime. That was a theme for Seattle last year, as they went under 22.5 points in the first half in 70% of their games.

The Picks:

• Seattle -3.5 (+111 Novig)
• First Half Under 22.5 (-103 BetRivers)

NFL Kickoff Player Props

Drake Maye OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-104 ProphetX)

This number is on the rise, as I first locked it in at 31.5 when it first opened last week. It makes sense that the folks are slamming the over on Maye's attempts, since he had 43 pass attempts in the Super Bowl as the Patriots were playing catch-up all night.

I see a similar game script tonight, where the elite Seattle defense stymies the Patriots' ground game and forces Maye to beat them. New England's best chance to win this game is by letting Maye spin it, and they may even come out throwing early.

Jadarian Price OVER 63.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-117 BetRivers)

This is another prop that is on the rise and will likely continue to go up as we get closer to kickoff on Wednesday night. It's already moved two yards since this weekend, as bettors are backing the rookie out of Notre Dame to have success in the same role that propelled Kenneth Walker III to Super Bowl fame.

Price doesn't have to be as dynamic as KW3 to go over this number, though all the reports from Seattle camp have been largely positive about both his ability as a runner and receiver. He's not likely to get the 29 touches that Walker saw against New England in February, but he's a good bet to lead the backfield in touches, as he has only George Holani and Emanuel Wilson as competition for touches.

Seattle will debut its new offense under OC Brian Fleury on Wednesday:

A little bit of what to expect @SportsCenter pic.twitter.com/59XfB1CJTg

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 6, 2026

LaFleur's background in San Francisco suggests he's likely to establish the run with Price on offense and utilize him as a receiver. No one is saying he's Christian McCaffrey, but that type of usage in an offense that features a lot of pre-snap motion, 12 personnel, and creative scheming can only be a good thing for his prospects in this game and overall this season.

This is a low bar to cross for a talented back who should have a featured role in this offense. Betting on the total scrimmage yards feels safer to me than just his rushing or receiving yards independently. We aren't totally sure how he'll be successful in this spot, but the odds of him breaking off some good runs or some big gains on receptions are high.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 3.5 receptions (+133 Novig)

Stevenson was slowed on the ground against Seattle the last time these teams met, gaining just 23 yards on seven carries. He did, however, catch five passes for 40 yards and a late touchdown in the final minutes. The Seahawks actually funneled targets to running backs last season as opponents averaged 7.6 targets to backs (tied for the most in the NFL).

With TreVeyon Henderson looking doubtful to play, we should see Stevenson on the field for the majority of New England's offensive snaps. I think there's a good chance he's heavily utilized as a receiver again in this one, and if you're looking for a trend to back this play, Stevenson had four or more catches in three of New England's final six games last season.

NFL Kickoff Same Game Parlay

Who doesn't love building a SGP for these primetime games? I try to keep mine anywhere from 3-5 total legs, and today's is a four-legger that combines the main outcomes that I predicted throughout the article.

On most books, you can take alternate props to soften up each leg a little bit, and that's what I've done here to help increase the probability of this one hitting.

I like my parlay to tell a story, and this one predicts a game script where Seattle wins and is able to incorporate their talented rookie back into an offense where both KW3 and Zach Charbonnet flourished. The Patriots are forced into a pass-heavy approach, and Stevenson gets plenty of work on passing downs with his backfield mate, Henderson, likely out.

Good luck if you tail this bet, and thanks for reading the first (of many) NFL betting articles on RotoBaller this season!

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