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Top sleeper picks to win the 2023-24 National Championship in NCAA Men's Basketball. Nick and Ryan give their favorite darkhorse and sleeper candidates to cut down the nets come March Madness.
With the college basketball season only a week old, it’s still much too early to tell which teams are going to live up to the hype and which will prove to be fraudulent.
The NCAA tournament is the most unpredictable tournament in sports which is what makes it so exhilarating year after year. Only one team is going to cut down the nets come March, and half the fun is predicting which team will accomplish that ultimate feat.
Here the Rotoballer NCAA Men’s Basketball writers Nick (@DrRoddy_) and Ryan (@RJthegoodman) give their three favorite dark horse championship futures.
Ryan’s Picks
Texas A&M (+7000 BetRivers)
The Aggies were picked second in maybe the toughest conference in all of college basketball, and have the SEC preseason Player of the Year in Wade Taylor. Do you need more of a reason to take a flier on them? They also have a great coach in Buzz Williams who has seen NCAA tournament success - three Sweet Sixteens and an Elite Eight on his resume. Williams brings back the aforementioned Taylor who could be a first-team All-American this year, along with three other starters and six more guys who contributed heavily to their 25-win team a season ago.
Get attention? Pay attention. 💯 pic.twitter.com/7mBMB6irxh
— Texas A&M Basketball (@aggiembk) November 13, 2023
Despite being 15th in the AP poll, the Aggies sit at the 22nd best odds to win the whole thing. A&M is my favorite dark horse who I can confidently say I wouldn’t be shocked if they cut down the nets come April.
Saint Mary’s (+8000 BetRivers)
Randy Bennett is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. The former San Diego assistant has a .709 win percentage in his career to go along with eight NCAA tournament appearances and five WCC Coach of the Year awards. While the Gaels have seen tremendous success in his tenure, they’ve always been overshadowed by big brother - Mark Few and Gonzaga.
Until this year that is. St. Mary’s was picked to finish at the top of the conference for the first time in over five years. Why? Because Bennett returns four starters from a team that won 26 games a year ago and earned a five-seed in the Big Dance without winning the WCC tournament. The Gaels did it with elite defense, ranking 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and this year should be no different. They lost their leading scorer in Logan Johnson, but a young star emerged last season in freshman point Aidan Mahaney who should be ready to shoulder a lot more of that load.
Mahaney is a certified bucket and should be in contention for WCC Player of the Year -- if not All-American status. If he is able to make that huge leap the Gaels can really make some noise in March given how experienced this roster is. This could be the year Bennett breaks through.
St. John’s (+10000 BetRivers)
How fun would this be? Two-time national champion Rick Pitino comes back to his old conference, taking over a middling program that hasn’t won an NCAA tournament game in 23 years and wins a title his first year at the helm. What an absolutely insane story that would be.
The first two I truly believe were good values, but this one is more just wanting the theatrics. In reality, this team probably doesn’t have enough pieces to even make the final four, but I do know that Pitino is one of the best basketball minds the college game has ever seen. The roster he has assembled does also have a lot of talent, highlighted by Penn transfer Jordan Dingle who was second nationally in scoring (23.3 points) last year.
He and all-conference big man Joel Soriano should be one of the best one-two punches in the league. There are a lot of unknowns otherwise, but if one guy is going to figure out the perfect balance of this group it’s probably Pitino. Can he shock the basketball world? The chances are non-zero.
Nick’s Picks
Baylor (+4000 BetMGM)
Scott Drew, one of the best coaches in the country, is looking to reload this season and move back to being one of the best defenses in all of college basketball. Two years removed from a National Championship, Drew’s No Middle defense wasn’t nearly as feared last season, finishing 107th in KenPom’s AdjD ranking. Their frontcourt with leader Jalen Bridges and freshman Yves Missi are a formidable pair in an extremely deep Big 12 conference.
However, the No Middle defense excels with guards who can pressure the ball. Their backcourt has a new look this year with VCU transfer Jayden Nunn and Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis. Ball pressure defense is nothing new to Nunn while Dennis was one of the best mid-major shotmakers in the nation last season.
Combine this bunch with the x-factor that is Ja’kobe Walter, a future NBA lottery pick who’s already leading the team in scoring. The Big 12 is a rugged conference, but the Baylor Bears have talent and a great defensive scheme to cause fits in March if Coach Drew can mold the new talent on his roster.
Down 9 at half? No problem for @BaylorMBB 🫡
Re-live the dramatic come-from-behind victory against Auburn in Sioux Falls in this week's episode of The Follow 📽️
▶️ Now streaming on https://t.co/TN0ja6sK87 pic.twitter.com/uK6uCHvKjQ
— Baylor+ (@BaylorPlus) November 14, 2023
Florida Atlantic (+5000 BetMGM)
Man, do I love this Florida Atlantic team. 35-4 last season in the school’s first NCAA Tournament win and Final Four appearance was no fluke. Heading into 2024 head coach Dusty May returns nearly his entire roster including Co-AAC preseason players of the year Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin. First and foremost, winning in March starts with guard play.
Having two veteran players who don’t turn the ball over, can shoot from all over the floor, and are selfless enough to create for teammates cannot be overstated. Historically, however, there have been plenty of mid-major teams with good guard play fall short when stepping up in competition usually because they get destroyed in the paint and on the boards. 7-footer Vladislav Goldin was a high-major talent (Texas Tech transfer) and was the best big man on the floor during their Tournament run, particularly on the defensive end. Coach May scheduled a grueling out-of-conference lineup this season with the likes of Butler, Illinois, and Arizona on their upcoming schedule.
Albeit early in the season, we’ll see how prepared the Owls are to make another run. An experienced roster with great guard play, tons of depth, top-tier three-point shooting, and one of the best coaches in the country? Give me 50/1 now before they’re thrust into the spotlight again with these high-profile contests.
Colorado (+10000 BetRivers)
In my eyes, this is the best value on the board at the moment. The Buffaloes should be favored in their first 12 games of the season before a conference clash with Arizona on January 4th. Potentially starting the season undefeated with a win over the Wildcats and this number absolutely plummets.
checkin' in 📈#GoBuffs pic.twitter.com/Xi9dFR8Pj3
— Colorado Men's Basketball (@CUBuffsMBB) November 13, 2023
BartTorvik projects them to be underdogs in only 5 games all season. Their ceiling is to enter March as a 3-seed, but we’re more likely to see them as a mid-seed with upside. Junior point guard KJ Simpson and senior forward Tristan da Silva lead the charge with a chance to become legends in Boulder.
Turnover issues and poor three-point shooting greatly hampered Colorado last season. Simpson needs to take the next step in becoming a true point guard, but the additions of big men Eddie Lampkin (TCU) and Cody Williams (Frosh) give Coach Tad Boyle’s team tons of length in the frontcourt with the ability to defend on all levels of the court. This number likely shrinks over the next few weeks and if these guards can step up throughout the year, Colorado should be a dangerous team in March.
