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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/5/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome back for the second edition of our strikeout prop picks! In my first go-round, we finished at 4-4 with a few near-misses. I went 4-2 on K props last night, so I am hoping to keep the momentum going into a big Saturday split slate today. Some of my favorite MLB player props to wager daily are pitcher strikeout props! Did you know that strikeout rates - among pitchers and hitters - are some of the most stable statistics in baseball?
Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters. We are still waiting on some larger sample sizes to feel super confident, but in the meantime, we can still take some shots on projecting how pitchers will fare in the K column today.
This may be our last chance to get certain pitchers at a certain number before the books adjust, too. In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 5, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop around for the best price with other books as well.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks
Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Saturday, April 5:
- Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
- Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
- Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
- Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds
- AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves
- Jack Kochanowicz, L.A. Angels
- Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals
- JP Sears, Athletics
Reese Olson OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Olson caught my attention in his first start, whiffing five Dodgers and battling the best lineup in baseball through 4 and 2/3 innings. He was able to throw 93 pitches, so we know he's fully stretched out, and now he gets a much softer matchup today against the lowly White Sox.
Chicago is striking out 22% of the time against righties, but I would expect that number to keep climbing as their lineup has a lot of young, free-swinging hitters in it. They may roll out as many as five lefties today, but that could work in Olson's favor as he had a higher K% vs. lefties than righties last season.
If Olson can avoid the walks early, I like his chances of getting through six innings and picking up at least a strikeout per frame. We are getting plus odds on an emerging young pitcher in a great spot.
Spencer Arrighetti OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 FanDuel)
The Houston righty was fantastic in his first start, whiffing five Mets over six frames and allowing just one run on one hit and two walks. He posted an impressive 31.8% CSW% and 113 Pitching+ in limiting a very good Mets lineup.
Spencer Arrighetti, Nasty 77mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/GbVck3dqIL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 1, 2025
He gets the Twins here today, another team that likely has strikeout regression coming against righties. They are whiffing just 19% of the time, but their projected lineup has a rolling three-year average of around 25%. We saw Hunter Brown dominate this team for eight strikeouts earlier this series. All we need is six from Arrighetti, who is coming off a strong rookie campaign where he finished with a 27% K%.
Taj Bradley OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Taj was great in his first start, although the Rockies can certainly help pitchers look their best from what we have seen so far this year! Regardless, a 30% K% and 0% BB% are beautiful things to see, and a strong 15.4% SwStr% to back up the K-rate. Taj is a legit strikeout pitcher, we know this - we just need to see more consistency from him on a start-to-start basis.
The matchup against the Rangers will be a challenging one. It's a deep, talented lineup and one that hasn't struck out all that much (19%) so far this season against RHP. But that's why we are getting such great odds! I am willing to predict that we won't see Bradley over 5.5 at plus odds again this season after today.
He has a big opportunity today to prove that he can get it done against a good team, and I like backing a talented pitcher with great stuff in that type of spot.
Brady Singer OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings)
Singer was one of the biggest surprises of the opening week as he whiffed eight in his Cincinnati debut over seven strong frames. He's not been a dominant strikeout pitcher in his career, but it's not like we haven't seen him flash potential before either.
It all comes down to Singer's pitch mix and what he decides to throw. Kansas City was content with him being a sinker-heavy pitcher who relied on his sinker-changeup combo to elicit ground balls. And for several years in KC, his strikeout rate was below 20% as a result.
Brady Singer, Wipeout 82mph Slider. 🌊
8th K pic.twitter.com/2lXPx8po7O
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2025
But in Cincinnati, we have seen him ditch his changeup for a cutter and increase his four-seam fastball usage. That new combination has seen great results as Singer pitched to a 28% K% in spring training before posting a 33% K% and outstanding 15.2% SwStr% in his regular-season debut.
We have a chance to jump on a pitcher early who has made a significant change in the way they pitch that could result in more strikeouts this season. Milwaukee is a good matchup for him today as they've whiffed nearly 24% of the time against righties this season.
Let's see if this new version of Singer is the real deal. We just need six strikeouts, and Singer has shown he can pitch deep enough into games to where we won't have to sweat this one out til the final batter.
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AJ Smith-Shawver OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-138 FanDuel)
I didn't think we would see another pitcher at 4.5 against Miami after Spencer Schwellenbach went for ten strikeouts against them last night (don't worry, I had him bet up to 9k in alt props). But here we are today with another talented young righty facing one of the most K-prone teams in baseball.
Nothing ever qualifies for me as an "auto-bet," but this is one of the first numbers that grabbed my attention. There is certainly still some risk here, as Smith-Shawver had an ugly 14% BB% in his debut. But he also flashed some impressive underlying numbers with a 16.9% SwStr% and 32.5% CSW%.
The youngster has good stuff, he just has to throw strikes. It certainly helps that Miami is only walking 7% of the time against righties, too. This feels like one of the safer bets on the board and one that I would consider laddering up in case we get another ceiling performance from an Atlanta pitcher.
Andre Pallante UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
Pallante has never been a strikeout pitcher. Normally, I would look at his 16.7% SwStr% from his debut and be concerned that he has positive regression coming to his 14% K%, but it feels like a one-game fluke to me. There was no major change to the arsenal or increase in velocity, so I wouldn't expect any major changes to Pallante's numbers this season.
He's a guy with a career 16.5% K% and 9.3% BB%. We usually see pitchers with marks that bad down around 3.5 so take advantage of the mispricing here and hammer the under with me.
Boston has a good 13.5% BB% against righties, and they are heating up at the plate in this series, pushing their season wRC+ to 128. I don't think Pallante can hang around long enough to get five strikeouts here when he's not a guy who has ever come close to a strikeout per inning.
Jack Kochanowicz UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
And you thought I didn't bet under - I have two on the card today and this one is under 3.5! Let's talk about fluky results, after posting an abysmal 9% K% last season across 65 innings for the Angels, Kochanowicz somehow had a 19% K% in his first start, whiffing four White Sox over six frames.
When we peel back the layers a bit, we find that he had an absurd 52% O-Swing% in that start, meaning he got hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone over half the time. And he had a 90% Z-Contact%, which means when he did throw it in the strike zone, hitters were making a lot of contact.
He has a much tougher matchup today against a disciplined Guardians lineup that will be willing to take walks, force him to pitch deep into counts, and not chase pitches. This bet has some juice on it because anyone who followed Kochanowicz last year knows that this guy is one of the least-imposing strikeout pitchers in baseball.
JP Sears OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
Sears has had a very up-and-down career so far. He was once a promising prospect for the Yankees but has been pitching for the Athletics now for the last 2.5 seasons. We have seen some flashes of strikeout potential, but he's topped out at just 22% in 2023 and continues to tinker with his pitch mix in an attempt to get the most out of his stuff since he isn't able to blow it by hitters with an average four-seam fastball velocity of 92.7 mph.
That JP Sears slider has crazy drop 💨 pic.twitter.com/cYNZ9TLQkR
— Slab Lab (@slablabshow) April 2, 2025
It's tough to judge much from one start, but he posted a 28% K% that was backed by a very strong 32% CSW% in his debut. It looks like he's throwing his slider and sweeper more often while decreasing his changeup usage. If that trend keeps up, then perhaps he will be able to keep some strong strikeout numbers going.
For today, he just needs to keep the ball in the ballpark and stay in the game. The Rockies will strike themselves out half the time! Colorado has a ridiculous 37% strikeout rate to lefties so far this year. The real risk here is the park factor and the chance that Sears gets chased early. But I am backing him to get through five or six frames and get us to six strikeouts at plus money!
Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!
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