RADIO
Below are my DraftKings picks for Wednesday, August 5th, 2015. As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock.
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Game Notes
- Weather should not be an issue today. It should be a beautiful day for some afternoon baseball and the night games in Atlanta and Cincinnati may see some raindrops, but do not expect any type of cancellations.
- Pitching in the afternoon slate looks atrocious. If you have a pitcher you really like, be prepared to pay up.
- The Mariners/Rockies game features an over/under of 11 runs. Make sure to get a piece of that action.
- Speaking of that game, stacking Mariners makes absolute sense. Chris Rusin has had a few good starts this season but has also exploited some matchups. Surprisingly, he is a more effective pitcher at home than on the road. Let’s see if that lasts.
- Players should really build their evening teams around Johnny Cueto, Matt Harvey and/or Madison Bumgarner. Second-tier pitchers are clearly available, but the matchups are questionable.
- Allow this sentence to qualify as the obligatory “think about stacking Blue Jays [facing a rookie making his first start] and/or Yankees [who are averaging a million runs/game].”
- Another solid stacking strategy involves getting a giant piece of the Astros/Rangers game. The Rangers will throw out Nick “4.83 FIP” Martinez while Scott Kazmir can be susceptible to a few long balls.
- Perhaps the favorite stack of the day is the Dodgers’ left-handed bats against Aaron Harang in Philadelphia. Harang recently got off the DL and posted a win in his first start, but he still gave up a good number of hits. Add in that now he will pitch in the sandbox of Philadelphia. Could be a very short outing for Harang.
DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings
Early Slate
Danny Salazar, CLE - $11,400
Salazar’s 28.0% K rate is just too irresistible to ignore. Even if he gives up a run or two, he will more than make up for it in strikeouts. In his last four starts, he has gone 29.1 innings with 28 K and has given up only five earned runs.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL - $9,600
Didn’t I tell you that pitching was atrocious in the early slate? That being said, Chen has actually pitched well this season. He got smashed in his last outing but does have good command of the strike zone, as he yields the lowest BB rate, 5.1%, of all starting pitchers in the afternoon.
Late Games
Madison Bumgarner, SF - $10,600
I don’t care that Bumgarner hasn’t been Bumgarner this season. I’ll still take 2015 Bumgarner over 70% of all pitchers on any day. It helps he squares off against an Atlanta team that has gone from bad to worse since the All-Star Break. The Braves are featuring a sub-85 wRC+ since the ASB, and their best hitter probably won’t play due to an injury.
Taylor Jungmann, MIL - $8,300
Milwaukee’s rookie is about the only bright spot in an otherwise dismal year for the Brewers. Jungmann’s 7.38 K/9 and 3.11 FIP are quite respectable numbers for the young gun, and he will get a Padres team that ranks in the bottom third of most offensive categories. Jungmann makes sense as a second pitcher.
Drew Hutchison, TOR - $5,400
By no means should Hutchison be thrown into double-up lineups. For tournament plays, this one makes sense. In terms of budget, you really can’t get any lower and get the type of ceiling that Hutchison offers with other players. Hutch will get phenomenal run support and actually has solid home splits- 21.4% K rate, 1.10 WHIP, 2.80 FIP. Add in that the Twins are pretty bad offensively when on the road, and Hutchison as a tournament option just makes sense.
DFS Catchers to Consider for DraftKings
Early Slate
Mike Zunino, SEA - $3,600
Chalk this one up to the ballpark factor. Zunino could go 0-4 with four strikeouts or he could go 2-4 with two homeruns and two strikeouts. Either way, he’s a boom-or-bust option.
Late Games
Carlos Ruiz, PHI - $2,500
The catcher position either features terrible matchups or guys that are absurdly priced. Ruiz is a great punt option. He’ll face LHP Brett Anderson who is suspect at times to allow baserunners, especially when facing a hot team like the Phillies. Ruiz owns a .434 wOBA and a WRC+ of 181 against southpaws on the season. At $2,500, that’s a steal.
DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings
FIRST BASE – Early Slate
Chris Davis, BAL - $4,300
With a .490 wOBA, a 221 wRC+ and eight homeruns over the last two weeks, Davis is the definition of locked in. He is also yields a career .361 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Today he faces a struggling Kendall Graveman.
Late Games
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - $5,000
Goldschmidt against left-handed pitchers, especially a guy like Gio Gonzalez, is ungodly.
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD - $3,900
In only six official at-bats, A-Gonz is hitting .500 with three RBI against Aaron Harang. Not a spectacular sample size, but Gonzalez does own great career numbers against right-handed pitchers. Add in the short porch in right field, and he could see a two home run game.
SECOND BASE – Early Slate
Logan Forsythe, TB - $3,900
It appears that DraftKings is finally changing the Forsythe algorithm, as his price has raised over $600 in just a week. Forsythe has crushed left-handed pitchers all season. He ranks first in wOBA (.405) and wRC+ (166) among all qualified second basemen on the season.
Late Games
Anthony Rendon, WAS - $3,300
It’s hard to pass up Rendon at that price. Considering how often he is getting on base and how well he is seeing the ball (and the fact that he plays third), Rendon’s price is primed to raise drastically over the next few days. Reap the reward while you can.
SHORTSTOP – Early Slate
Ketel Marte, SEA - $3,400
Check to make sure Marte is in the lineup. Even though manager Lloyd McClendon announced he would start, there’s still a possibility he does not. As for the reason he makes this list, it’s simply because he’s a random player that is relatively cheap in a hitter’s park that owns the platoon split, and there is no other great options at the position. Did you get all that?
Late Games
Jhonny Peralta, STL - $4,000
The Cardinals have been rather ordinary on offense as of the last month or so, but that certainly does not mean that Peralta has been. On the year, he’s mashing lefties with a wOBA of .353.
Jimmy Rollins, LAD - $3,300
For about a decade, Rollins terrorized opposing pitchers when they came to Philadelphia. On Wednesday night, he has the power to do that as the enemy. Over his last two weeks, Rollins’ .452 wOBA is second among all qualified short stops. Do you think Aaron Harang is good enough to cool him down? I sure don’t.
THIRD BASE – Early Slate
Kyle Seager, SEA - $4,900
Seager is a tournament boom-or-bust play.
Evan Longoria, TB - $4,000
Much like his teammate Forsythe, the algorithms have caught up with Longoria when he is facing lefties. The Rays’ third baseman has a .865 OPS against LHP and has been smoking hot over the last two weeks. His .437 wOBA and 1.019 OPS during this span make him an elite play on Wednesday afternoon.
Late Games
Adrian Beltre, TEX - $3,900
There is really no bad option among a ton of third basemen in the evening game. In terms of great value, it does not get better than Beltre. The dude is clearly dialed in right now, as evidenced by his recent cycle, and he is at his absolute best when facing lefties in Arlington. He only strikes out in 3.5% of at-bats against lefties at home and owns a career wOBA of .372 against lefties overall. Even more, he has solid numbers against Kazmir.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings
Early Slate
Nelson Cruz, SEA - $6,200
Austin Jackson, SEA - $4,300
Mark Trumbo, SEA - $4,000
If you can afford this stack then it makes sense. Nelson Cruz’s price is absurdly high, but the guy has been teeing off recently. Austin Jackson owns great platoon splits against left-handed pitchers and Trumbo has plenty of experience hitting in Coors Field. If you can only afford one, then Trumbo is the way to go simply because of the price factor.
Gerardo Parra, BAL - $3,400
Parra gets a struggling Graveman in a park that plays well to guys that do not have raw power. He has a .381 wOBA over the last two weeks, and his gap potential should play nicely for some extra base hits in Oakland.
Joey Butler, TB - $3,400
Butler’s .342 wOBA against RHP is nothing to take for granted. Although he has struggled a bit of late, all he needs is a nice dose of Carlos Rodon to walk him a few times and get that confidence back up.
Late Games
Bryce Harper, WAS - $5,400
It’s been awhile since I’ve nominated Harper. During that span, it seems like he has cooled a bit, much like his Nationals. Wednesday he should get back on track. Rubby de la Rosa is a guy that gives up home runs, and there’s no better righty-masher in the game than Harper.
Andrew McCutchen, PIT - $4,500
It’s been awhile since McCutchen went yard. Despite not owning the platoon split against Dan Haren, he has actually been better against righties this season than lefties. Haren has pitched well on the year, but he is still suspect to the home run, and McCutchen has tagged him twice in 13 career at-bats.
Andre Ethier, LAD - $3,000
Ethier’s two home run game over the weekend was just the tip of the iceberg. He still is a guy that has crushed right-handed pitching this season and will get to tee off against Harang.
DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6 PM on 8/5
Leave your question here and then come back at 6 PM when Max answers everything. For our regular MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat, click here.
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