X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Infielder Busts Set to Bounce Back in 2020

Brian Rudd examines the fantasy baseball profile of four infielders who disappointed last year but could bounce back strong in 2020. These 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS options could be strong draft values based on ADP.

Fantasy baseball owners tend to put too much emphasis on the previous season when it comes to valuing players. There is a reason projection systems use three years of data, because while last year's numbers are typically the most important thing to consider, what a player has done in the past matters as well. Each player starts with a clean slate every season, so relying too heavily on last year's statistics can be a big mistake.

In addition to a decline in skills, several other factors can lead to a player underperforming his expectations. Injuries and bad luck can both play a large role in dragging down a player's numbers over the course of a single season. Also, as you'll see with one player below, the 2019 data is based off an extremely small sample that doesn't hold much weight in regards to future performance.

We recently looked at some outfielders who are likely to bounce back in 2020, and this time, we'll look at some infielders who fit the bill. The price has significantly dropped since a year ago on the veterans in this group, and each of these players stand a strong chance of turning a profit on their current ADP.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Daniel Murphy, Colorado Rockies

After hitting .299 or better in each of the previous three seasons, Murphy seemed like as good of a bet as anyone to win the NL batting title in his first season in Colorado in 2019. Instead, he hit just .279, his lowest mark in the past nine seasons, while hitting just 13 home runs across his 478 plate appearances.

Murphy suffered a fractured finger in the second game of the season. He missed less than a month of action, but wore a splint on the finger, and GM Jeff Bridich noted back in December that he probably rushed back too quickly. Granted, Murphy's Hard Hit % had slipped in 2018, but the finger injury seems like the most logical explanation for such a nosedive in his other batted ball metrics.

Murphy did get going for a while, hitting .343/.377/.547 in a 217 PA span from late May to early August, but faded down the stretch, and ended up falling well short of expectations. Even at age 35, he still offers a lot of upside, including the potential for a batting title, especially if the Rockies play most or all of the season at Coors Field. If MLB goes through with the plan to play in just Arizona and Florida, the possibility of a universal DH could help offset the loss of Coors, and help his chances of staying healthy.

Murphy has seen a massive dip in his ADP following his disappointing 2019 campaign. He was going at pick 70 in 2019 drafts, but has fallen all the way to pick 250 in 2020. If you are in need of a batting average boost in the middle rounds, he makes for a very intriguing target, as he could turn a huge profit on his draft-day cost.

 

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Machado fell short of expectations in his first season as a Padre. Coming off of a year in which he hit .298 with 37 home runs and 14 stolen bases, he dropped to a .256 average with 32 HR and 5 stolen bases in 2020. Machado was performing quite well for most of the season, hitting .278/.348/.515 with 26 HR through the end of July, but limped to a .209/.305/.348 line with 6 HR over the season's final two months.

Machado's K% jumped up to 19.4%, which, on the surface, may put into question a batting average rebound. However, after whiffing at an unusually high rate during the first month of the season, Machado cut the K% down to a more typical 17.9% from May 2 through the end of the season, a span of 537 plate appearances.

Machado enjoyed hitting in Camden Yards while with Baltimore, posting a .296/.353/.537 career line in the park. Things didn't go as well in his new home park, though.

For the first time in his career, Machado was a below-average hitter in his home park. Strikeouts were part of the problem, but an extremely low BABIP also factored into his struggles. While Petco Park is tougher on hitters than his old home venue, it's not the pitchers' park it used to be, and Machado's numbers there should improve in 2020.

Don't count on a return to double-digit SB, as Machado has achieved that feat just twice in his career, and his sprint speed has ranked below the 40th percentile in each of the past four seasons. However, he has a lot of things going for him that should make owners optimistic about a bounceback in 2020.

Machado is extremely durable, having played in 156 or more games each of the past five seasons, which has allowed him to reach 32 or more HR in each of those years. Machado also has a history of higher batting averages, offers multi-position eligibility, and is still just 27 years old.  A drop in ADP from 20 in 2019 to 60 this year seems like an over-correction following a down year, and provides a nice buying opportunity.

 

Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies

Gregorius missed most of the first half in 2019 as he recovered from October 2018 Tommy John surgery. His home run pace was in line with recent history when he came back, as he clubbed 16 HR across 344 PA. However, Gregorius was a big disappointment in the batting average category, hitting a meager .238, after he had hit .265 or better in each of the previous four seasons.

Gregorius did strike out a little more than he usually does, as his 15.4% K% was his highest since 2014. However, much of the blame falls on his .237 BABIP, which was far below his .283 career mark. A .247 xBA per Statcast suggests that bad luck wasn't the sole reason for his struggles, but at the same time, Gregorius did put up career-best numbers in Barrel % and Hard Hit %, areas where he usually checks in well below average.

Gregorius won't have hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium helping him out anymore, but if teams end up playing in their home parks, he will once again be in of the best hitters' parks in the league in Citizen's Bank Park. Simply being on the field more will give his value a boost in 2020, and most signs point to a significant batting average correction. With an ADP of 205 in NFBC drafts, Gregorius offers plenty of appeal in the middle rounds.

 

Carter Kieboom, Washington Nationals

After putting up an impressive 1.161 OPS over his first 19 Triple-A games in 2019, Kieboom got the call to the big club in late April when Trea Turner was out with a fractured index finger. Owners who spent a high percentage of their free-agent budget on his services were left disappointed. Kieboom hit just .128 with a 37.2% K% in 43 PA, and was sent back down in early May, never to get another chance.

The departures of Anthony Rendon and Brian Dozier have opened up another opportunity for Kieboom. While the team signed Starlin Castro and brought back Asdrubal Cabrera, Kieboom is expected to see the majority of action at third base for the defending world champs.

Kieboom ended the 2019 season with a .303/.409/.493 line at Triple-A in 2019, along with 16 HR and 5 SB. He isn't likely to be an immediate difference-maker, and may not play every day, so he probably won't turn a huge profit on his 309 NFBC ADP, but the possibility of a universal DH would potentially create one more opening in the lineup.

A ridiculously low .143 BABIP contributed to Kieboom's small sample struggles in the majors in 2019. His pedigree, as well as his success at the upper levels of the minors, suggests he should be able to hold his own at the highest level in 2020.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on His Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF