Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - The Memorial Course History

July 15, 2020

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Memorial. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Welcome back PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Wow...what a tournament the Workday Charity Open turned out to be! Three of my favorite players - Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Thomas - were paired together in the final group Sunday morning and produced some fireworks, with Morikawa eventually outlasting JT in a playoff.

Morikawa now has more career PGA Tour victories (2) than missed cuts (1), which is a pretty ridiculous stat. The young star has been impressive ever since he turned pro last year and already has to be considered one of the best iron players in the game. His world-class ball striking have helped make him unbelievably consistent and I think we can expect to see even bigger things from him. Strangely, Mr. Morikawa will get to play on the exact same course this week, as we stay at Muirfield Village for the Memorial. Let's dive in!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

The Memorial Overview

Lots of interesting storylines heading into this tournament - including the fact that the PGA Tour is playing on the same course in back-to-back weeks - but the two that stand out are Bryson DeChambeau and Tiger Woods. DeChambeau has basically owned golf since the restart - with his crazy-long drives and high finishes - and he now heads to a Muirfield Village layout that he won on two years ago. Perhaps the only thing that could push Bryson off the front page is Tiger's return to golf after an extremely long layoff. He's won the Memorial five times in his career and will be teeing it up competitively for the first time since the Genesis Invitational.

Obviously, there are more players in the field than Bryson and Tiger, as golf's who's who will be in attendance this week. Patrick Cantlay teed it up in last week's Workday Charity Open, but will be "officially" defending his Memorial title this week, while Collin Morikawa won on this course last week, but will trying to win his first Memorial crown. Yeah...we're living in strange times. Really excited for this one, let's take a look at the course and some horses!

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The Course: Muirfield Village

Par 72 - 7 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass 

We can always count on a Nicklaus-designed course to force the players into strategic thinking and Muirfield Village doesn't disappoint. Muirfield Village actually has *GASP* penal rough both lining the fairways and around greens that will punish a players mistakes. 'The Golden Bear' built this course from the ground up in the 1970's and he continually updates it as needed. It's lengthy enough to require mid-to-long irons on some approach shots, but isn't a 'bomber's track'. Difficult, but not impossible to score on, we'll see golfers post both 66s and 76s this week. In other words, Muirfield is a very high-quality golf course.

The emphasis this week will be on accuracy and ballstriking, with players being required to hit both tree-lined fairways and undulating greens. Water is in play on 11 holes, with bunkers also causing trouble for the players. The closing stretch is one of the toughest in golf, with 16, 17, and 18 presenting players with a challenging close to their rounds. I'll be heavily weighting Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy), and bogey avoidance this week at Muirfield

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15) *Playoff Win
• 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
• 2016: William "Dirt" McGirt (-15) *Playoff Win
• 2015: David Lingmerth (-15) *Playoff Win

 
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The Horse

Bryson DeChambeau

DraftKings: $11,100
FanDuel: $12,000
Notable Course History: T22 ('19), Win ('18), T38 ('16)

We all might be suffering from a bit of “Bryson Fatigue”, as it seems like all anyone in the golf world can talk about is DeChambeau and his new-found bulk. After a week away, get prepared for the hype train to start rolling again for the Memorial. 

Even if we throw his recent form out the window, Bryson would still be a player that would be featured in this article due to his strong track record at Muirfield Village. He captured the Memorial title two years ago and has never missed a cut in Dublin over three professional starts.

Of course, we aren’t gonna throw his recent form out the window, as it’s too impressive to be ignored. He’s ran off seven straight finishes inside the top-eight, with a win in his last start at the Rocket Mortgage. Bryson has averaged 7.9 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over his last five tournaments and a ridiculous 5.5 SG: Off the Tee. He brings that sharp form and a boatload of confidence to a track where he’s already been very successful. So why we all might be getting a little tired of hearing about DeChambeau, there is definitely substance behind the hype, which makes him hard to ignore this week.

The Ponies

Patrick Cantlay

DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $11,600
Notable Course History: Win ('19), 4th ('18), T35 ('17), *T7 Workday Charity Open

Cantlay was featured in last week’s Workday writeup, but I’ll touch on him again quickly here. He was relatively quiet last week, before exploding for a final-round 65 and shooting up the leaderboard to finish in a share of seventh place. 

His Sunday performance was what we were hoping to see from Cantlay throughout the week, but he looked sluggish in his first couple of rounds in just his second start since the COVID-19 layoff. With the rust now sufficiently knocked off, he has a legitimate chance to successfully defend his 2019 Memorial title. 

We’ve actually seen Cantlay’s price decrease this week due to the strength of the field and he’s arguably in a better spot, as he finally gets a chance to play in back-to-back weeks.

Tiger Woods

DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $10,600
Notable Course History: Five-time Memorial winner

There are lots of unknowns with Tiger this week - as he’s set to make his first official start since struggling mightily at the Genesis Invitational - but if he’s healthy, he must be considered a serious threat on this golf course where he’s won five times. 

We haven’t seen Tiger since his appearance with Phil Mickelson and company for the charity match that was held during the Tour’s layoff - and it’s hard to take too much away from that type of outing - but Woods did look extremely sharp in that appearance. 

My biggest concern here is the rust factor. We know that Tiger is capable of preparing himself for competition, perhaps better than anyone, but he hasn’t hit a shot in a tournament environment since February. That said, he’s a player that we have to take seriously this week due to his (best of all-time) iron play and reasonable DFS price tag.

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Kevin Streelman

DraftKings: $7,600
FanDuel: $9,300
Notable Course History: 4th ('19), T44 ('18), T13 ('17), T8 ('16), *T7 Workday Charity Open

A really nice blend of current form and course history with Kevin Streelman this week. The veteran heads into the Memorial on the heels of strong back-to-back outings, including a T7 in last week’s Workday Open.

In addition to last week’s effort, Streels has finished inside the top-18 in four of his last five Memorial starts, with a T4 in last year’s edition. He gained 4.7 strokes T2G at the Workday, coupled with a +7.3 T2G mark at the Travelers two weeks ago. 

In a field full of heavy hitters, Streelman doesn’t have the elite name recognition of most, but he’s a rock-solid option on this layout that he is very comfortable with.

Keegan Bradley

DraftKings: $7,200
FanDuel: $8,500
Notable Course History: M/C ('19), T23 ('18), M/C ('17), T8 ('16 &'15), *T39 Workday Charity Open

I had to mention Keegs this week...so I apologize in advance for what might happen if you roster him. If you follow PGA DFS very closely, then you probably know Bradley’s MO: tremendous ball striker with horrible short game. Yep, that pretty accurately sums things up...but what Keegan pulled off last week is impressive, even for him. He led the Workday field in SG: Approach with a RIDICULOUS +10.7 mark, but was close to being dead last in SG: Putting by losing a comical 6.9 strokes on the greens. I have no words…

Ok, I have a few words. Last week's splits were extreme - even for Keegan - but his course history here indicates that he is capable of posting scores on this layout. If - and it is a big IF - Bradley can find anything with the putter this week, he might be a sneaky-good GPP option. Anytime someone gains that many strokes with the irons I’m interested, fire him up if you’re feelin’ lucky.

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