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Friday night brings us a pair of particularly interesting strikeout scenarios for two talented right-handers, as well as enticing matchups for three hitters in games where their teams have solid projected run totals.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, August 25, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Spencer Strider OVER 8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Strider's strikeout upside is above question, and he'll enter Friday night's favorable matchup against the Giants with an elite 14.0 K/9 figure. He just struck out 10 Giants at Truist Park in his most recent start last Friday, and San Francisco is now carrying a 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break.
Strider owns a 12.8 K/9 on the road and has recorded at least 9 Ks in 18 of 25 starts, while falling just short with 8 strikeouts on two other occasions. Current San Fran bats have struck out 15 times in 37 career encounters with Strider, underscoring how effective he's been against Giants hitters. With the Giants' projected run total tied for the lowest of the night at 3.5, Strider should have a good chance of remaining in the game long enough to reach this prop.
Dane Dunning OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We'll go with a second straight strikeout prop with Dunning, and this one comes at an especially appealing price. The Rangers' right-hander's strikeout profile has been unusual to say the least, as Dunning has recorded under six strikeouts in 14 of 19 starts but has also tallied double-digit punchouts in three turns and six in two other instances.
We'll presume that inconsistency is what's helping keep Dunning's strikeout prop as modest as it is Friday, because it certainly isn't the matchup. The Twins have actually struck out an MLB-high 29.3 percent strikeout rate against righties in the second half of the season, including a 30.9 percent figure when facing them at home.
Dunning has also been at his best on the road, where he sports a 2.98 ERA, 0.4 HR/9 and a 7.6 K/9 that's exponentially higher than the 6.1 figure he's mustered at home. With this type of price and the swing-and-miss upside Dunning has demonstrated at times, this prop is worth considering.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Austin Riley has top-10 NL MVP finishes in '21 and '22 along with 100 HR over the last 3 seasons... but is he becoming underrated?@markdero7 breaks down how the @Braves slugger continues to hide in plain sight as one of the best hitters in the game.#ForTheA | @Boporter16Bo pic.twitter.com/wNnGGYhx8m
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 18, 2023
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+140 FanDuel SportsBook) or 2+ Total Bases (+105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Riley is up against a quality starter in Logan Webb on Friday and hitting in a pitcher's park, but the slugger still stands out for either of these two props considering their price. Riley has enjoyed plenty of success against Webb in a small career sample as well, hitting .357 against him in 14 career encounters.
Webb, solid as he's been overall, has struggled to an extent in same-handed matchups, allowing a .270 average and 25 extra-base hits in that split. In turn, Riley has a .280 average and .354 wOBA against right-handed pitching while lacing 45 of his 115 hits in that sample for extra bases. Riley is also hitting .300 against right-handed pitching with runners on base since the All-Star break, furthering his chances of cashing the RBI prop.
The total bases prop is certainly in play as well, considering Riley's prodigious power and his average of 2 total bases per game. Finally, consider Giants relievers have pitched to a .283 BAA and .327 wOBA against right-handed hitters in August, strengthening Riley's chances of enjoying success after Webb leaves the game as well.
Ryan Mountcastle Over 2.5 Hits +Runs + RBI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Orioles have a projected run total of 5.3 runs as of early Friday for their matchup against the Rockies, and considering there's a highly vulnerable left-hander on the mound in the form of Kyle Freeland, Mountcastle has significant appeal. The slugger has terrorized southpaws all season, posting a .347 average, 1.087 OPS and .445 wOBA versus that handedness.
Mountcastle has laced 20 of his 42 hits against southpaws for extra bases, and he's driven in 33 of his 61 runs against that handedness as well. He's also in the midst of his best month of the season in August, hitting .378 while averaging 2.9 hits + runs + RBI in that sample. Meanwhile, Freeland has had plenty of trouble outside of Coors Field and has allowed a .306 average and .385 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, along with a 2.3 HR/9.
Colorado relievers aren't much better, having pitched to a 7.20 ERA, .320 BAA and .358 wOBA against right-handed hitters on the road thus far in August.
Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Swanson gets a crack at a pitcher he's enjoyed plenty of success against in the past, as the Pirates' Mitch Keller has surrendered a .571 average with three doubles in eight career encounters versus the Cubs' slugging infielder.
Swanson entered Thursday's action averaging 1.7 total bases per game, and Keller is in the midst of a nightmarish second half of the season that's seen him pitch to a 6.98 ERA, .333 BAA and .404 wOBA over 38.2 innings. A total of 22 of the 55 hits Keller has yielded in that span have gone for extra bases.
The Cubs have a solid 4.7 projected run total as of early Friday, and given Swanson's history of making impactful contact against Keller, he could well be involved in some of that offensive output.
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