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Top 5 NFL free agents - 2025 fantasy football free agent draft sleepers and outlooks: Sam Darnold, Najee Harris, Hollywood Brown, Darius Slay, and Rico Dowdle.
Whether you're a diehard dynasty fantasy football gamer or looking forward to next year's season, analyzing free agency to uncover potential sleepers is key. Outside of elite fantasy studs, there are often discounts on players who have changed teams. Some fantasy managers even participate in early drafts before free agency kicks off, so taking the discount due to uncertainty can give you an edge over your opponents.
Last offseason, we saw under-the-radar signings like Sam Darnold, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, and Darnell Mooney change teams, and each player enjoyed a strong fantasy campaign in their new cities relative to expectations. Who are potential free-agent sleepers in this cycle?
Below, let's dive into two running backs, two wide receivers, and a quarterback who present potential pre-free agent value in drafts or could exceed expectations during the 2025 fantasy football season.
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Najee Harris, RB, NFL Free Agent
Market Value (per Spotrac): three years, $27.1 million
Almost everyone was on the "Najee Harris train" after the Steelers picked him in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While playing with a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger as a rookie, Harris rushed for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. He caught a whopping 74 passes for 467 yards and three scores, finishing as the RB4 in PPR setups. His efficiency wasn't ideal, but his role as a workhorse for a top-tier organization gave fantasy managers reason to believe he could continue to be a top-5 performer.
However, Harris has not finished as an RB1 in the three seasons since, and he's been RB20 or worse in each of the last two years. The 240-pounder has rushed for at least 1,000 yards in each of his four NFL campaigns, but his pass-catching role has taken a hit thanks to the emergence of Jaylen Warren, and his efficiency has never been all that impressive in the Steelers' lifeless offense. He is no longer viewed as a fantasy football difference-maker, but could a change of scenery change that?
NAJEE HARRIS ARE YOU SERIOUS!?
📺: #PITvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6uP3rKdzdD— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
Running backs appear to be on the rise in terms of how NFL franchises value them, and Harris could be a fantasy riser if he lands with the right organization this offseason. Just look at what happened when fellow former first-round Alabama running back with several 1,000-yard seasons, Josh Jacobs, landed with the Packers. With Jacobs' offensive environment upgraded in Green Bay, he saw his yards-per-carry figure go up by almost a full yard, and he scored 16 touchdowns in 17 games compared to six touchdowns in 13 games the year prior.
If you squint hard enough, it's easy to picture Harris in a much better offense, benefitting from wide running lanes and more red zone/scoring opportunities.
Best Landing Spots: Bears, Broncos, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs
Rico Dowdle, RB, NFL Free Agent
Market Value (per Spotrac): one year, $6.2 million
Did Rico Dowdle have one of the quietest productive fantasy seasons ever? The 26-year-old went undrafted in a ton of leagues but was the RB17 in half-PPR setups from Week 4 to Week 18. When the Cowboys finally realized Ezekiel Elliott cooked and Dalvin Cook didn't have it anymore, they leaned on Dowdle. While playing much of the season without Dak Prescott at QB, Dowdle posted 235 carries (15th) for 1,079 yards (12th) and caught 39 passes (19th) for 249 yards (30th). He found the end zone just five times yet produced a solid RB2 season in a bottom-half offense in the NFL.
Rico Dowdle picks up 27 yards!
📺: #CINvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus & ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/jB6DA4IBQ2— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024
Despite the stellar season relative to expectations and his offensive environment, no one is talking about Dowdle. Sure, maybe he was a one-year wonder and will disappear into the abyss, never to be heard from again, but NFL teams likely took notice of his 2024 campaign. Dowdle is entering his sixth NFL season and had under 400 career rushing yards before 2024, but he's finally healthy and flashed in his one stint as a team's primary back.
No, Dowdle is not likely to get top-of-the-market money and be a true workhorse for an upper-tier NFL offense, but his lack of name recognition will keep his draft price affordable, and if he can land on a team with a strong offense as even a committee back, he has a great chance to contribute to fantasy teams or at least be a high-end handcuff stash.
Best Landing Spots: Bears, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs
Marquise Brown, WR, NFL Free Agent
Market Value (per Spotrac): two years, $15.9 million
Marquise "Hollywood" Brown has been trending down since his 1,000-yard season in 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens. He had two modest seasons with the Arizona Cardinals but dealt with a flurry of injuries that held him back. Last offseason, he landed with the Kansas City Chiefs, getting fantasy managers excited for a potential bounce-back campaign. Unfortunately, the injury bug struck again, and Hollywood did not play until Week 16 of the 2024 season.
Despite the limited action, there were a few promising signs for Brown. Andy Reid and Kansas City wanted to get him involved as soon as he was active, targeting Brown 15 times in his first two games with the organization. He saw five targets in the AFC Championship Game and six targets in the Super Bowl. He was never able to fully get on the same page with Patrick Mahomes, but he showed enough to warrant targets and chances in an offense that traditionally requires players to get accustomed to it over time.
Brown still has the ability to produce, but he will be extremely discounted due to injury concerns. While the injury troubles are very real, his cheap price in early and "just before the season" fantasy drafts makes him close to a risk-free selection. What if he gets placed in a pass-happy offense with a strong-armed quarterback? Don't rule out a WR3 bounceback.
Best Landing Spots: Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Rams
Darius Slayton, WR, NFL Free Agent
Market Value (per Spotrac): three years, $47.3 million
Darius Slayton has been a good NFL player since entering the league in 2019, but it hasn't directly translated to fantasy football success. The Auburn product led the Giants in receiving yards in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, racking up at least 724 yards in each of those four seasons. If you're reading this article, you likely follow football and know that the New York Giants have had dumpster-fire quarterback play for most of the last half-decade.
Slayton has been a solid producer despite this, taking out last season following the emergence of Malik Nabers. In 2022 and 2023, Slayton ranked inside the top 20 wide receivers in both yards per target and yards per reception. He's not a target-hog, but when he is targeted or does come down with a catch, it's often a big, valuable play for an offense.
Tyrod Taylor SOOOO DEEP to Darius Slayton 80 yard touchdown! Huge play for the Giants! pic.twitter.com/k2P5o1pc5D
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) December 31, 2023
Spotrac projects Slayton to fetch a three-year, almost $50 million deal on the open market. That might sound too rich to be true, but his projected $15.7 million salary would put him 27th among all wideouts. After free agency wraps up and wideouts sign extensions with their current organizations, that'll fall well outside the top 30.
The 28-year-old is not likely to be a WR1. It would even be surprising if he's a top-36 wideout next year. However, in best ball formats and deeper redraft leagues, there's a real chance he's worth a roster spot and could fill in at the FLEX when needed. Again, let's hope he lands in a potent offense for the first time in his career.
Best Landing Spots: Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Rams
Sam Darnold, QB, NFL Free Agent
Market Value (per Spotrac): four years, $160.5 million
You aren't reading his market value listed above incorrectly. $160.5 million for Sam Darnold? Yes, that's how desperate NFL organizations are for above-average quarterback play.
Darnold's 2024 breakout season is well-documented. The former New York Jets draft bust threw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his first year with the Vikings, leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record. His Week 18 disastrous performance kept the Vikings from clinching the one-seed for the NFC Playoffs, and he wasn't much better in the Wild Card loss to the Los Angeles Rams. However, his two awful performances to close the season won't be enough to keep an NFL team from giving him generational wealth this offseason.
According to PlayerProfiler.com data, Darnold ranked inside the top 10 among quarterbacks in yards per attempt (7.9), deep ball completion percentage (50.8%), pressured competition percentage (60%), red zone competition percentage (64.6%), true passer rating (104.3), explosive play rating (113.2), passer rating vs. zone coverage (108.7), and passer rating vs. man coverage (104.1).
The majority of NFL fans might believe Darnold is a one-hit wonder, but organizations take advanced stats and performances into account, so don't be surprised when he's handed a massive deal in the next few weeks.
Sam Darnold DIME.
📺: #MINvsNYG on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/RLTd99jsnN— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Fantasy managers are writing him off after a tough close to the year, so no matter where he starts, his cost in drafts will likely be affordable. Whether he's a fringe starter in single-QB leagues or simply just a body to start in Superflex/two-QB formats, don't forget about him. He's the top quarterback sleeper of the free-agent class.
Best Landing Spots: Colts, Jets, Raiders, Steelers, Vikings
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