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Justin Bales gives his DraftKings MMA DFS lineup picks for the Fight Night 129 Main Card. Get a head start on your UFC DFS lineups for DraftKings.
What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 129. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 25-16).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 129.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Vicente Luque vs Chad Laprise
This is one of the closest fights I believe there is on the card, which is surprising because the odds do not suggest that. Luque has won five of his last six fights, finishing each of those fights. Laprise is coming off three consecutive knockout wins. Luque is seemingly the more dangerous fighter, though. They both come with power, but I feel Luque has a small advantage on the feet. I feel Laprise has the better pure wrestling, but Luque is the more dangerous grappler of the duo. I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight goes either way, but I feel Luque’s versatile finishing skills will make the difference here.
Vicente Luque, TKO, 2nd Round
Veronica Macedo vs Andrea Lee
Lee could potentially be the next top prospect for the UFC. In September, she won the inaugural LFA Women’s flyweight championship. She has also been fighting solid competition in Invicta FC along with LFA. Her opponent, Macedo, has not fought as high of a level of competition. She lost to Ashlee Evans-Smith in her UFC debut, which is far from a bad loss. Lee should be able to utilize her Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to control this fight, though. I do not particularly see Macedo winning anywhere, and it should be an impressive debut for Lee.
Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision
Diego Rivas vs Guido Cannetti
This is a great matchup between two versatile fighters. Both fighters have a lot of power in their hands, but they can also finish the fight on the ground. Cannetti is the more active striker, but Rivas has fight changing power in everything he throws. I expect this fight to feature plenty of grappling, which could be the difference. Cannetti has been susceptible to submissions, and Revas has a solid submission skills. This fight could go either way, but I feel Rivas’ power and submission skills will keep Cannetti in danger for as long as this fight lasts.
Diego Rivas, Submission, 2nd Round
Jared Cannonier vs Dominick Reyes
This is one of the most interesting fights on the entire card. Reyes is one of the faster rising prospects in the UFC, but he has never truly been tested. He has won seven of his eight fights in the first round, including four fights under one minute. Cannonier is a fighter with an elite chin, and he has only been finished once in his career. Reyes is the better fighter of the duo, but his cardio will likely be tested in this fight. Time and time again, we have seen young fighters use their entire gas tank searching for a finish early in a fight only to gas later on and lose. Cannonier also features tremendous power that Reyes has likely never seen in his career. It’s tough picking against Reyes, but I feel this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest.
Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision
Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez
This line has seen crazy movement. Suarez opened as a -300 favorite, but is now a -900 favorite. I believe this fight is significantly closer than those odds suggest, but it is Suarez’s fight to lose. She’s an elite level wrestler, and that is tough to stop in the UFC. While I think Grasso has an extremely bright future, I do not believe she is ready for this type of wrestling. Suarez should have a relatively easy time landing takedowns, and scoring with the judges.
Tatiana Suarez via Unanimous Decision
Damian Maia vs Kamaru Usman
This is another nightmare matchup for Maia. He essentially has one elite skill, but he cannot use it if he cannot get his opponent to the ground. Simply put, I feel Usman is a better version of Colby Covington. Usman has the wrestling to keep this fight standing and he has better standup than Covington, who won a Unanimous Decision over Maia with his standup. Usman has tremendous power in his hands, and he should be able to find a finish in this fight.
Kamaru Usman, TKO, 2nd Round
