Early FFPC ADP Observations: Quarterbacks

July 7, 2019

Scott Engel analyzes 2019 fantasy football Quarterback ADP trends for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) in terms of NFL player values. Who's being over or undervalued?

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Throughout the preseason, we will check in on how High Stakes Players are viewing Fantasy Football draft selections. Looking at Average Draft Positions from the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) we can determine the latest trends and outlooks from some of the world's high-stakes players. In this installment, we look at recent Quarterback ADPs.

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FFPC ADP Observations: Quarterback

In line with Andrew Luck (FFPC ADP of 2 at QB): The high stakes crowd is buying in on Luck being close to the top of the pack this year with maybe the best pass-catching crew in the league. Two other prominent mainstream sites have him going third and fourth overall at the position. I actually believe he wlll finish at No. 1 overall because his receiving corps will be much better than Patrick Mahomes’, especially when Tyreek Hill gets suspended.

Big on Baker (5): FFPC players are just as hot on Baker Mayfield as anyone else, as he seems to be Top 5 or 6 on most sites right now. The promising play of Mayfield in 2018, with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., has propelled Mayfield into the preseason Fantasy stratosphere at his position. Personally, I believe Mayfield has to earn Top 5 status, I cannot just hand it to him. I am fine with him as a Top 10 Fantasy QB, but I prefer a more proven player as a Top 5 selection.

Rivers gets respect (10): I have seen Philip Rivers last deep into double figure rounds in some drafts. He actually has an ADP of between 16 and 20 at his position on some other sites. Yet the high stakes players give him his due. He has thrown for at least 4,200 yards and 28 TDs in each of the past six seasons and had 13 or less INTS in four of them. He is very reliable with a high floor and simply never gets the Fantasy respect he deserves. Rivers does get the proper value here, though.

Kyler Murray is a starter (11): Murray gets Top 12 treatment as a rookie from the FFPC players here while two other notable sites have him 14^th and 15^th in their QB ADPs. A dynamic dual threat who just needs pro experience, the high stakes types likely see him as a possible Fantasy difference-maker right away and are not afraid to reward him with a starting-level ADP. Murray has actually been touted as a faster version of Russell Wilson, so the more aggressive high stakes players will push for his rights sooner than they might on a more mainstream Fantasy site.

Not too excited about Goff (12): Jared Goff does retain starting status as Top 12 QB in the FFPC arena, but barely does no. It seems he is being penalized in all Fantasy arenas for his diminished production down the stretch and in the postseason. But before Cooper Kupp was injured, Goff had soared to as high as QB2 status in overall scoring at the position. Kupp is back for 2019 and Goff will have a fine trio of WRs to work with again. Even if Kupp is not quite himself yet right away, he will command a lot of defensive attention and Goff is definitely capable of playing at a higher level than he did to finish off his 2018 campaign.

Major skepticism on the Steelers QB (16): Ben Roethlisberger’s ADP at QB is lowest on the FFPC and one other platform that also puts him at 16^th. It appears the FFPC crowd is penalizing him big time for the loss of Antonio Brown, even after Roethlisberger had one of his best years ever in 2018. But keep in mind that Roethlisberger has made other WRs stand out before and still kept playing well after their departures. Hines Ward, Mike Wallace and Santonio Holmes all starred with Roethlisberger and he continued to roll on after they departed. Roethlisberger should get a lot of credit for his own success and I will be glad to take him as a value starter when others pass on him this season.

Prove it, Jimmy (18): Like players on several other sites, FFPC participants are no longer smitten with Jimmy Garoppolo and want to see hard results instead of missed time and glimpses of promise. They still place him higher than on some other sites, as an one mainstream platform he actually has an ADP of 27 at the position. I still believe Garoppolo has Fantasy starter potential if he stays healthy. I was not as high on him as some others at this time last season, but he could be a real value at a lower ADP this year. Garoppolo has displayed a smart, savvy approach to passing when we have seen him, and he could at least be a steady, and sometimes outstanding Fantasy passer if he just stays on the field.

Lowest on Trubisky (22): While many other notable sites have Trubisky at an ADP from 17 to 19, the FFPC players are at least three spots behind him and obviously are not confident in the Bears QB this season. But we did see some real flashes of strong play from Trubisky and the team brass is still believing in him, as his pass-catching group remains unchanged. This will be the second season in the Matt Nagy system for the Bears, and if Trubisky plays like he did before he injured his shoulder last season, he could turn out to be a terrific value play. In a two-QB league, I certainly would be fine with having him as a second passer. As expected, QB is very deep this season, and if you lay very low and late to pinpoint your starters, I would be very content with a Roethlsiberger or Garoppolo to pair with Trubisky in a one-QB format.

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