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Nathan Powell examines the fantasy football impact of Jeremy Maclin signing with Baltimore. Both Ravens and Chiefs players could see their value and ADP shift.
On Saturday, June 3, the Chiefs parted ways with veteran wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Maclin spent two seasons in Kansas City as the Chiefs' top wideout. On Monday, Maclin found his new home in Baltimore with a two-year contract.
In this article, I will breakdown the fantasy impact of the move for both teams.
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The Chiefs' Values Without Maclin
Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes
Alex Smith has been a late round quarterback/streaming favorite during his time in Kansas City. Smith has never had the most exciting of weapons, but Maclin was one of the best he had. Throughout the offseason, Alex Smith has gone off the board as QB25 in MFL10s and his price hasn't moved in the week and a half since the Maclin release. Part of that is the confidence in other players like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the other part is there just isn't much farther to fall at the quarterback position. One worry for Smith with this transaction is the apparent look toward the future. Between the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes in the first round and releasing Maclin, I suspect that the team could be looking toward the future sooner rather than later, which could result in a quarterback switch mid-season. In the event that Mahomes does get the starting job, I wouldn't expect him to be anything more than a desperation QB streamer or low end QB2 option in superflex/2QB leagues.
Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill is the player many immediately pointed to as the benefactor of the Jeremy Maclin release. Despite limited playing time during his rookie season, Hill did finish as the WR23 with 10+ PPR points in 11 of 16 games including each of his last 8 games. Hill was used as more of a gadget player in 2016, but in 2017 with Maclin out, it is likely that he will be asked to play more of the traditional wide receiver role. The team announced he has already been taken off kickoff return duty.
Tyreek Hill is currently going off the board exactly where finished last season at WR23 in MFL10 ADP. The common takes in the industry over the last week have been Hill is being drafted at his floor from his supporters, while his detractors say he is being drafted at his ceiling as a player that wasn't even a full-time player in 2016. I tend to be more in the middle that he is being drafted right around the median of his outcomes. If he increases his snap count to around 85-90% I can easily see him finishing as a top 15 wide receiver. However, if his rise from a snap count of 41% is minimal to the 50-60% range, it is more likely that Hill will finish as a WR3 in 12 team leagues.
Chris Conley
The other possible benefactor to the Maclin release is third-year wideout Chris Conley. Conley is a metrics darling with a 4.35 40-yard dash and a 97th percentile Sparq-X score on playerprofiler.com. Many pointed to Conley after the acquisition of Mahomes as a possible breakout candidate because Conley's deep-threat style is more suited to Mahomes than Alex Smith. With Smith under center, I still find it hard to find any fantasy value from Conley outside of a late-round best ball option, but Mahomes' 98th percentile throw velocity means that Mahomes/Conley could be an exciting pair to watch as early as midseason.
How the Ravens Will Be Affected by Maclin
Joe Flacco
Like Alex Smith, Joe Flacco has been a late round quarterback/streaming favorite throughout his career. Also like Smith, Flacco's receiving weapons have been inconsistent at best over the last few seasons. Adding a reliable weapon in Maclin is certainly going to be a good thing as Mike Wallace was Flacco's only proven NFL wideout prior to the signing. Flacco is currently going off the board at QB23 in MFL10s, I expect the signing of Maclin to result in him leap frogging riskier options like Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz who are riskier options being drafted ahead of him.
Mike Wallace/Breshad Perriman
Prior to the Maclin signing, Mike Wallace was not so quietly becoming a sleeper favorite among fantasy writers as he was looking like the de facto WR1 in the Ravens offense. With the addition of Maclin, the battle between Wallace and Perriman is more important as likely only one of the two will be fantasy relevant. I expect Wallace to start the season as the Ravens WR2, but the health and development of 2015 1st round pick, Breshad Perriman, could mean that Wallace is phased out as a consistent option in the offense by midseason. The Wallace/Perriman debate will be purely a risk/reward debate whether to go with the proven veteran or the third-year wideout who has struggled to stay healthy. Since I tend to swing for the higher upside in the later rounds, I will be going with Perriman as my favorite to win this matchup.
Jeremy Maclin
Last but not least, the player that made it all happen, Jeremy Maclin is the clear value in the Ravens WR core at his current ADP of WR51 in MFL10s, I expect that to rise a bit over the next few weeks, but it is certainly something to take advantage of while it is still there. I expect Maclin to slide into the Steve Smith role as the WR1 and deep ball option, a role Maclin was unable to play with Alex Smith under center. In his last season with the Eagles, Maclin averaged 15.5 yards per catch, 3 yards more than his 2 seasons in Kansas City. Maclin enters a team devoid of reliable weapons and is likely to be the go-to option for Joe Flacco. Maclin isn't the only veteran wide receiver on the market and there were rumblings after the Maclin signing that the Ravens may also be interested in signing Eric Decker. If the Ravens sign Decker, that would eliminate any fantasy value from Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman and it would cap the ceiling of targets and touchdowns for Maclin.
