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Fantasy Spin - Ezekiel Elliott's Suspension

Feel those shock waves? That's the fallout from the announcement that Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended the first six games of the 2017 season, stemming from allegations of domestic violence that occurred before his rookie season. Fantasy football owners who just burned their third overall pick on Elliott are undoubtedly kicking themselves (and the TV) for drafting this early.

Elliott will appeal, but it's highly likely the suspension will stick. There's obviously no way to replace an average of over 100 yards and one TD per game on 5.1 Y/A. So what happens now?

Let's look at all the ramifications, from where Elliott's ADP now falls to who stands to benefit from this surprising outcome.

Editor's Note: Access RotoBaller’s trusted fantasy football rankings for PPR, Standard, Dynasty, Super Flex, and Best Ball formats. Get tiered cheat sheets, expert analysis, and player outlooks to dominate your draft from every angle.

 

Who Will Carry the Weight in Dallas?

There's little need to explain the significance of this loss to the Cowboys and fantasy owners alike. In his rookie season, Elliott led the league in rushing yards (1,621), rush attempts (322), and yards per game (108.7). He scored 15 times in 15 games and was a true bell-cow in every sense of the word. His lesser production in the receiving department puts him just behind David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in nearly all fantasy rankings, but it would be rare to find a re-draft league in which Elliott wasn't a top-three pick. Is there any way the Cowboys can replace that type of production with what's currently on the roster? In a word, no.

In 2016, veteran Alfred Morris served as a steady, if uninspiring backup, picking up 243 yards and a pair of TD on a paltry 3.5 yards per carry average. He contributed almost nothing as a pass-catcher either. His advantages: he's a solid pass protector, doesn't fumble (not even one in 2016), and looked good in the Cowboys' preseason opener. Odds are he will be the main back for the season opener, but that may not mean a whole lot. Morris seemed to be on the bubble to even make the roster at one point, but he's looked strong in training camp and is the most reliable runner they have at the moment.

Remember Darren McFadden? Oh he's still around. But he hardly played at all in 2016 before needing elbow surgery, and he's not likely to get much burn in the pre-season as they try to keep him healthy. You may not recall, but he actually managed over 1,000 yards on a healthy 4.6 YPC average starting 10 games for Dallas in 2015. If healthy (and not too rusty), he brings a lot more to the table than Morris as a runner and could eventually supplant Morris as the starter.

Then there's FB/RB hybrid Rod Smith. Smith is a big back from Ohio State that's been with the team for a few years. He's powerful and has impressed in the preseason, but offers little more than the prospect of a bulldozer who can drag guys for a couple yards in a cloud of dust. He was rumored to be the favorite to back up Zeke for a while during camp, but that moment may have passed.

Then finally there's Ronnie Hillman, who the Cowboys brought in to be the third-down back, replacing Lance Dunbar. Hillman is a dark horse, as he did respectably well as an every-down back for a short stint in Denver in 2015 after a rash of injuries gutted the depth chart. He's a longshot to be named the starter at any point, however. He was uninspiring in Minnesota last year before moving on to San Diego and doing even less, averaging 3.2 yards per rush attempt.

Bottom Line: The most likely scenario is that Morris is named the "starter," but only in a scenario where the dreaded committee approach is utilized, with Morris, McFadden, and Hillman splitting carries. Worse yet, until Elliott returns, Jason Garrett could opt to use Smith on the goal line, vulturing scores from whomever gets the bulk of the work. If you own Elliott, try to acquire Morris and/or McFadden ASAP and be ready to pony up the early FAAB. Just don't expect much and get ready to tear your hair out as the three or four understudies split carries until one gets a hot hand. Keep an eye out for current free agents like Rashad Jennings or DeAngelo Williams, who could be brought in to stabilize the position. They may be worth a flier in MFL10s or deep leagues.

 

The Impact on Dak

Maybe you're saying: "Well hey, this is fine by me. I own Dak, not Zeke." One thing the Elliott suspension likely means is that Dak Prescott's value as a passer and goal-line runner have increased for the first six games of the season. He ran for six TD last season and may be apt to try to run some more in himself, or have a few more designed runs or run/pass options called for him near the goal line in Zeke's absence. It's also inevitable that the breakdown of run/pass calls overall will skew to rely on Prescott's arm/legs more. If your league hasn't drafted yet, I wouldn't necessarily vault him way up your draft board to a QB1 because of this, but if you had him even with another QB, this may warrant nudging him up a spot or two.

 

Where to Pick Elliott Now

With nearly half of the fantasy season lost, Elliott is certainly not worth a first-round pick from here on out. Where his value lies certainly depends on the format and your leaguemates' respective opinions of him. With a three-game suspension to start 2016, Le'Veon Bell was still taken in the early second round on average and delivered amazing production the rest of the way, making him one of the best bargains of the draft season. Elliott's suspension is double that, however, so perhaps he's best left to the end of the second or early third round unless you believe that in 10 games he will find a way to outproduce players like Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley. Many believe that Elliott was due for a slight decrease in production anyway, but any way you slice it, he is no longer an elite fantasy option for redraft leagues and can be considered a classic risk-reward pick.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cody Martin

to Enter Free Agency
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Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
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Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
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Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
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Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
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Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
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Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
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Heading Back to Miami
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Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
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Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
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James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
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Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
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Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
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Heads to Injured List
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Carted Off on Sunday
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Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
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Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
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Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
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NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
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Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
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Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
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Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
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Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
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Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

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Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

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Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

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Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

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Noah Dobson

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Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
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Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
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on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
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Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
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Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
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Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
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Returns At UFC 317
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An Underdog At UFC 317
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Looks To Bounce Back
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Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
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Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
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Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
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Adam Hadwin

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Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
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Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
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a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

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a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
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