Top Trade Targets and Avoids for Week 11

November 17, 2021

Fantasy football trade targets - players to buy low and sell high on heading into Week 11 of the NFL season. Pierre Camus' top trade targets and avoids.

Trade deadlines in fantasy leagues are fast approaching, so it may be the last opportunity to improve your team without relying on waivers. Most teams have had their bye week but a few still remain, so a player's remaining schedule is a consideration that must be taken into account.

This column intends to advise fantasy GMs on players that should be actively sought or traded away in advance of Week 11. Keep in mind, these players are not being identified as absolute "must buy" or "must sell" recommendations.

If you would like advice on a specific trade scenario, feel free to reach me @Roto_Chef on Twitter.

Players to Trade for in Fantasy Football

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Coming off a bye and a mediocre game the week before, this is the time to grab Cooks before the playoff stretch run. Despite playing on a terrible team with rookie Davis Mills throwing him the ball for seven games, Cooks ranks as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. The move back to Tyrod Taylor and a favorable upcoming schedule can only help.

Admittedly, Taylor was pretty bad in his return as the starting QB in Week 9 as he tossed three INT and completed just 24 of 43 passes. Presumably, he knocked the rust off in that game and will be better prepared and closer to 100% full health after a week off. Cooks is fourth among wide receivers in target share at 29.75% and faces no threat to that standing.

His target volume of nine per game is enticing enough but the next few weeks will see the Titans, Jets, Colts, Seahawks, and Jaguars on the schedule. Four of those five teams are in the bottom half of defensive rankings against WRs in terms of fantasy points allowed and two of them are in the bottom four. Cooks could serve as a top-15 receiver from here on out.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Seeing players like T.J. Hockenson and Mike Gesicki put up goose eggs in Week 10 is enough to make us even more despondent about the tight end position in fantasy. Early-season revelations Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz each caught exactly one pass for less than 20 yards and seem to have faded away. Is there not a late-season savior at tight end? Perhaps...

Cole Kmet has been mostly invisible in 2021, as has the entire Chicago passing offense. He only caught 10 passes total in the first five games with an average of 3.8 targets. Then he saw his target share tick upward in Week 6, then again in Week 7, until he finally reached career-best marks with 87 yards on eight targets in Week 9. It's no coincidence that Justin Fields had his best passing game as a pro that same week. If the two can continue to grow together, we could see a strong connection through the second half of the season.

Kmet has a great chance to become one of the leading targets in this offense but he's already owned the tight end position. Veteran Jimmy Graham is still on the Bears' roster but you wouldn't know it based on his stats: two receptions on six targets all year. The WR corps is thin too and that has given Kmet ample opportunity already; he is 10th among all tight ends in target share and air yard share. An improved Fields could mean a payout is coming in fantasy leagues, so those desperate to solidify the position before playoff time might take a chance on Kmet.

Players to Trade Away in Fantasy Football

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

Is Gibson back? According to his fantasy point total of 22 last week, yes. Based on efficiency metrics, no. He averaged fewer than three yards per carry and relied on repeated goal-line carries to score twice. On the season, he's averaging 3.7 yards per carry and has -24 rushing yards over expectation. Volume is king as far as fantasy production but there has to be a high-enough level of performance to make it coun.t

Gibson is going to get those opportunities going forward, so the scoring upside remains but it's a risky proposition to rely on touchdowns for fantasy value. Before the bye, Gibson posted three straight weeks with a single-digit point total. He hasn't gone above 90 yards rushing in a game this season and has only surpassed 20 yards receiving once. In weeks that he doesn't find the end-zone, the floor is far too low.

Now is the time to find a trade partner interested in Gibson after his big performance who may be convinced that the bye week rejuvenated him. You can seek back a safer RB2 like David Montgomery or see if the manager with Saquon Barkley or Nick Chubb views Gibson as the safer choice.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

This is how you take advantage of shifting trade values before the fantasy playoffs - sell when a player reaches his peak value. That may come after Week 11 if Dillon has a huge game against Minnesota, so it might be advisable to wait a week but some leagues have a deadline that comes too soon for that. Dillon could absolutely be a fantasy RB1 in Week 11, possibly Week 12 too if the Rams don't fix their defensive woes. But then what?

The Packers are on bye in Week 13 and then Aaron Jones should be back to share touches with Dillon. He would still have borderline Flex value the rest of the season but wouldn't you rather have a locked-in RB2 or WR2?  Trading Dillon now makes sense because a team desperate to fill the void at a thin position may give up a stud receiver or someone like Kareem Hunt if they are impatient.

Dillon has been productive in relief of Aaron Jones but it's not as if he's destroying defenses. Dillon is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, which is decent enough, and he is second-highest in rushing percentage over expectation. Guess who is third-highest in ROE%? Kareem Hunt, a player on a run-first team who also catches more passes than Dillon will.

For the next two weeks, Hunt will get you nothing and Dillon could be a stud, so this is only advisable for teams that wouldn't need Dillon as a starter (not Aaron Jones owners in other words). For those preparing for the best possible roster in Weeks 14-17, flipping Dillon now is the best course of action.

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