November 11, 2017

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Addison Hayes uses standard deviation of weekly fantasy point data to find starters for Week 10.

The NFL season is flying by. It feels like yesterday we were preparing for the 2017 season; redraft leagues were kicking off, articles and draft kits were being sold and promoted daily, and dynasty players were hyping up their rookies and February sleepers.

Now, it is Week 10, over halfway through the season and it has gone by too quickly. However, now that we have nine games under our belts, consistency rankings are significantly more accurate and tell a much different story than two months ago. Consistencies will not be as largely affected by outlier games and we have a clearer picture of who is really performing consistently and who is not. So, without further ado, here are your consistency rankings at each position, including floor and ceiling players from flex players.

As usual, each position shows the top-24 players at that position, broken up by the top-12 and the bottom 12, separated by a line in the chart. Within each position break, the players are sorted by Weekly Floor.

Quarterbacks

The quarterback position shouldn’t see much change from here to Week 17 barring injuries. By now, we have a clear sense of who is performing consistently and who isn’t. One player I would like to point out as we are nearing the fantasy playoffs is Russell Wilson. According to this table, Wilson is the most inconsistent QB among the top-24. However, he also has the highest average fantasy points per game and the highest ceiling among the top-24 QBs. Because of this, Wilson’s weekly floor is 12.56, fifth highest among quarterbacks. This is extremely important as we move into the fantasy playoffs. Coupling a ceiling of over 30 points as well as a floor of nearly 13 points, almost identical to other quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Dak Prescott, Wilson can potentially be a league winner for many teams.

One problem for Wilson in the fantasy playoffs is he matchup against the Jaguars in Jacksonville during Week 14. However, after Jacksonville, he takes on the Rams at home then in Dallas for Week 16, juicy semifinal and championship matchups. We all know Wilson and the Seahawks are second half players, and after four stud performances over the past five weeks, Wilson is just now beginning to heat up in time for the playoff push. At the end of the season, I would not be surprised if Wilson is at the top of the list of quarterbacks on championship teams.

Running Backs

Of all the players on this list, there is one name in particular who is not getting enough love. In fact, I owe this player an apology. Jerick McKinnon has not only been an RB1 since taking over for the injured Dalvin Cook, he is the RB3 since Week 5, including a Week 9 bye. Over that five-week span, McKinnon has only one game below 10 points, but three above 24 points. The table above is accounting for the entire season, including the first four games when McKinnon took a backseat to rookie Dalvin Cook. However, over the past five weeks, McKinnon is averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game with a 7.47 standard deviation. That puts his floor at just over 14 points per game and his ceiling at 29 points per game.

As far as I can see, McKinnon is a must start every week and an RB1 at the position. He is a major part of the Vikings offense as a threat on the ground and through the air. With a floor of 14 points per game and a ceiling of 29 over the past five weeks, McKinnon is as great an RB play as Todd Gurley of Le’Veon Bell. Like Russell Wilson, I would not be surprised to see McKinnon as a highly owned player on championship team.

Wide Receivers

Like McKinnon, there is a receiver on the table that deserves an apology from me, despite being a massive fan of his during the offseason. During the summer, I was concerned about Jarvis Landry and his production in Miami with the presence of Jay Ajayi. After Ajayi’s rise last season, Landry became a second option as the team moved to a run-heavy offense. However, Landry is currently the WR5 in PPR formats and only has one game under 10 points. As always, Landry has been a very consistent fantasy producer, with a standard deviation of 4.92, one of the lowest among the top-24 receivers. However, the difference this season has been his consistency around a higher average.

Through eight weeks, Landry has caught four touchdowns, one less than his career high. He is currently on pace for 112 receptions and eight touchdowns, but for only 870 yards, a completely different season for Landry after two straight 90+ reception, 1100-yard seasons. From a dynasty standpoint, I will be interested to see if Landry resigns with the Dolphins and then his production when Ryan Tannehill returns (I do not believe Cutler will return next season). As for right now, Landry is a clear cut WR2 with touchdown upside for WR1 weeks.

Tight Ends

At the TE position, there is an under-the-radar player on this table not getting the love he should, given these numbers account for the entire season. However, Tyler Kroft has been averaging 12.88 points per game and is the TE7 since Week 4, including a bye. Over that stretch, Kroft has been one of the more consistent tight ends, similar to Cameron Brate and Evan Engram. Kroft has a floor of just over six points and a ceiling of nearly 20 points due to touchdowns. For any team streaming tight ends, Kroft has become an almost every week starter at the position.

From a dynasty angle, I believe Kroft could be the tight end of the future for the Bengals. I do not believe they will resign Tyler Eifert after this season when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Kroft is signed through 2018 on his rookie deal. Until now, he has not warranted a big contract extension, but if Kroft takes over the Eifert role for the remainder of this season into next, he could remain their starting tight end past his rookie deal.

Floor Play

Ceiling Play

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