Sophomore Slump - Breakout Rookies Who'll Bust in Year Two

Rishi Patel identifies NFL players who broke out as rookies last year but could struggle in fantasy football for the 2021 season.

Each year, rookies take the league by storm and post incredible numbers. Some explosive rookie campaigns are expected given the hype surrounding a player, but others are out of the blue.

Nevertheless, sustaining that production heading into Year Two can fluctuate depending on many factors, such as whether the size of the role is the same, a new player has been added as competition, etc.

As a result, some rookies may endure what’s called a “sophomore slump” and regress in their second year in the league. Let’s look at some potential sophomore players who could possibly undergo this in 2021.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson carved an incredible rookie story for himself in 2020 as an undrafted running back who managed to take 240 attempts for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added 49 receptions for 344 yards and three scores on 60 targets too.

Despite that Cinderella season, Robinson is unfortunately likely to regress in terms of his numbers in 2021. The reason why? It’s the addition of new Jags QB Trevor Lawrence’s old college teammate, RB Travis Etienne.

Etienne is no pushover as he rushed for at least 1,600 yards and had at least 430 receiving yards in two of his four college seasons with Clemson. There are reports about Etienne being a dual-threat player as head coach Urban Meyer wants him to play wideout as well.

Nevertheless, Etienne is a threat to cut into Robinson’s production and the rookie’s presence will indicate this isn’t Robinson’s backfield once again in 2021. Look for Robinson to see a decrease in his numbers though to what extent remains unseen until we know how the backfield touches will split during the season and which position (RB/WR) Etienne will be most utilized in.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

A big-bodied presence, Tee Higgins was splendid as a rookie with the Bengals in 2020. He paced the team with 908 yards receiving on 67 receptions and 108 targets. He also added six scores. While Tyler Boyd and Higgins were the top two wideouts last year, things will certainly get murkier this year with the addition of Joe Burrow’s former LSU teammate, WR Ja’Marr Chase.

Chase was drafted by the Bengals in April and now makes this group even stronger though unfortunately it does have fantasy repercussions. See, Chase posted an incredible season in 2019 with Joe Burrow, amassing 84 receptions for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. He will likely come onto this team and be a factor in this offense considering his talent and already-established chemistry with Burrow.

The Bengals just got one more mouth to feed and a talented one at that. As a result, Higgins will need to fight for targets this season and his role could go anywhere from WR1 to WR3 on the team depending on how targets are split. Given the competition in 2021, it’s safe to say Higgins won’t have a clear path to easy targets and thus some regression could be expected.

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite a carousel at QB last year, Jags rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. had a decent campaign. He managed 58 receptions for 600 yards and five scores on 79 targets. The good news heading into this offseason? Shenault has QB stability as the team drafted a sensational talent, Trevor Lawrence. The bad news? The Jags now have a lot of mouths to feed on this offense.

First off, D.J. Chark Jr. is expected to be the WR1 on the team and the addition of former Lions wideout Marvin Jones Jr. as WR2 would put Shenault at WR3. In addition, as mentioned above, RB Travis Etienne could be more involved in the passing game if Urban Meyer’s plan comes through and guys like James Robinson and Phillip Dorsett could also steal some targets. And who can forget good old Tim Tebow possibly making the team as a TE and potentially stealing targets?

Overall, Shenault will face a heavy dose of competition for targets this year compared to the last. While he did post an encouraging rookie campaign, the road to a stronger sophomore year will be challenged by the presence of new and veteran faces on the team also vying for targets.

Bonus Pick: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor took advantage of his role last season and showed why he deserved to head the Colts’ backfield heading into this season. That’s why he’s incorporated as a bonus player in this article as I’m the least worried about Taylor compared to the other three players in terms of enduring a sophomore slump.

The only reason I would have any concern about Taylor potentially slumping this year is the return of Marlon Mack. Mack got injured in the first game of the 2020 season (Achilles) and missed the entire campaign as a result. This paved the way for Taylor to take the workhorse back role and he didn’t look back as he posted an incredible 1,169 rush yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 attempts along with 36 receptions for 299 receiving yards and one score on 39 targets.

In 2021, Mack will look to cut into that production and make this backfield a two-headed monster upon his return. Mack flashed signs of his talent in a breakout 2019 campaign where he posted 1,091 rush yards and eight scores on 247 attempts. How the Colts' backfield will play out is anybody’s guess though Taylor should get the benefit of the doubt given he proved himself last season. Nevertheless, keep Marlon Mack on your mind when potentially drafting Taylor this year in fantasy drafts as Mack could certainly play a factor in this backfield too and affect Taylor’s numbers.

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