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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 6 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before we can make exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Clint Frazier, New York Yankees
Frazier would be a great trade target for a team looking to fill out a fifth outfielder spot. After last year's mini-breakout, fantasy managers surely expected to get more production out of him. His .267/.394/.511 slash line with a .905 OPS forced his ADP near the 150 range. But through 70 AB in 2021, his .143/.294/.271 slash line leaves him so much less desirable. So why target him?
For starters, it likely won't take much too much to pry him away. Paying ten cents on the dollar for a potential stud outfielder could be a huge boost to your team. By now, Frazier is probably riding the pine on someone's bench. This is the perfect time to strike. Take a look at the chart below.
It looks like many lines, but the main focus needs to start with the red, yellow, and dark blue ones. First, Frazier's K% (dark blue) is one reason for the plummet in batting average. The average K% for all MLB players is around 21%; as you can see, Frazier's climbed to nearly 40% and now steadily declining. Second, you can see that his contact% (yellow) and z-contact% (red) continue to climb.
That is a good thing for Frazier because he has a career barrel rate over 10% and xwOBAcon that is just north of .408. To put that in lamens terms, when he makes contact, the ball does good things. Last, his wOBA (light blue) is starting to creep back up to what we saw in 2020. Frazier is a sleeping giant; start your trade-off very low for him and see how cheap you can steal him away from a team.
Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals
A Statcast darling, if I have ever seen one, is Hunter Dozier. He boasts the 80th percentile in barrel rate, 81st percentile in sprint speed, and 80th percentile in hard-hit rate. Oddly, through 87 at-bats, that has only translated to a .184 batting average and .693 OPS. On the bright side, there have been five dingers in that timeframe.
Dozier touts multi-position eligibility, which could come in very handy with the way injuries are piling up in the MLB. Over his last week, the underlying metrics are finally showing off his potential. In his previous 22 at-bats, the slash line is a staggering .318/.375/.955 with a 1.330 OPS. His hard-hit rate is at a career-high of 48%, as well the barrel rate is well over 13%. The expected stats tell us Dozier's batting average should be .264 with a .526 expected slugging percentage, not the .184 BA with a .448 SLG%. It's time to trade for him before the stats start to level out!
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
The closer market is a wasteland on the wire; you'll drive yourself mad trying to predict who will get the next save chance in a committee bullpen. My advice, try to pry Edwin Diaz away from someone. The main reason for drafting a closer is saves, and Diaz only had three. Yet, another reason people tend to evaluate RPs incorrectly. The ebb and flow of a season make small samples very tricky.
A surface stats some may point to his ERA, which is not an ideal stat to look at, especially for an RP. Diaz shows off a 4.22 ERA but has been very unfortunate. His xERA puts him at a 3.06, and his SIERA is just north of 3.20 as well. However, Diaz is still striking out batters at a healthy rate(31.8% K-rate).
There has been a tremendous amount of shade thrown at Edwin Diaz over the years, and this one is no different. The potential to put up a 30-plus save is still there. You might have to give up a little bit to get Diaz, but it could be a huge return waiting for you!
Trade Targets to Move
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
This one pains me to write because I am a Boyd boy, but you have to look at trading Matthew Boyd. We drafted Boyd expecting to get strikeouts, but where are they? His K% is down to a puny 17.3%, and he only has 24 Ks through six starts. Not ideal!
The focus has shifted from striking out batters to not allowing loud contact. Boyd has surely done that, as the barrel rate against him is under 6%. However, there is bad news; he is still giving up the same hard-hit% as always. This could be a sign of bad things to come.
His 2.27 ERA is terrific, but that is back up by a 4.70 SIERA(6th worst in the MLB). On top of the SIERA, his 4.99 xFIP also suggests a bit of bad luck is coming. There could be some rough stretches coming for Boyd, and the team is offering up very little run support. Time to move him to a team that doesn't look past ERA to evaluate a pitcher.
Colin Moran, Pittsburgh Pirates
The obvious stat that jumps out to me is Moran's batting average. His .294 BA feels like a mirage, especially since Moran is a career .277 hitter. This drives me to inspect his BABIP. That's where things start getting dicey. A .380 BABIP is nearly 60 points high than his career mark of .326, which could be pretty scary. If his BABIP normalizes down to .326, the batting average could tumble with it. Wait, a career-high batting average, with an abnormal BABIP paired with a 28% strikeout rate? Luck is certainly on Moran's side to start 2021.
Are we willing to gloss over the fact that Moran has the 54th percentile barrel% and 25th percentile hard-hit rate? No, that makes me even more suspicious about his four HRs. This looks like a perfect candidate to move before the wheels start to fall off. If the batting average becomes hollowed out and the power dries up, you'll be looking at a bench bat. Move him for someone with bigger upside potential.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Baez is a very tricky player because his production swings from great to awful quickly. He showcases the 93rd percentile in barrel rate and 81st percentile in sprint speed, both great metrics for targeting power+speed combo players. The downside to Baez is when they will come and how clustered.
Currently, on the season, Baez is slashing .245/.282/.360 with a .811 OPS-good not great. However, in his last two weeks, Baez is 12-for-38 with a .316/.333/.632 slash and .965 OPS. This might be a perfect time to drop the Javier Baez Statcast slider. Feast your eyes on all the blue below. K%, BB%, Whiff%, Chase%, and xBA are near the worst in the league. In fact, he features the worst z-contact% in the MLB(64%).
Starring at a player with eight HRs and six SBs could return a massive haul. This is a perfect opportunity to trade at one of his peaks for a high-level player. Target someone with a more balanced approach to count on for the rest of the season.
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