Overvalued Catcher Targets And Avoids At ADP

Andy identifies 5 undervalued and overvalued fantasy baseball catchers, including potential sleepers and busts to target or avoid in 2025 drafts based on ADP.

Hello, RotoBallers! Today, we will look at five catchers to either draft or avoid in fantasy baseball drafts based on their ADP and current market value.

In this piece, we will analyze the current average draft position (ADP) and identify which catchers we should target or avoid at their current draft position. While fantasy players should not follow ADP too closely and base their entire strategy on it, it does provide a solid benchmark for where players typically get selected.

Be sure to follow @RotoBallerMLB for more league-winning offseason content, and message me @A_SMITH_FS on X with questions on navigating the current ADP market. Let's dive in.

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Fantasy Baseball Catchers to Target at ADP

Willson Contreras, C, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 96
RotoBaller Ranking: 121 (-40.2)

Willson Contreras has battled injuries throughout his MLB career and was limited to just 84 games last summer due to forearm and pinky fractures. However, Contreras could be in store for a massive season as he will be the everyday first baseman in St. Louis. With the 32-year-old not expected to do any catching, he will be put in a great position to avoid injuries.

When he is on the field, he is one of the most productive hitters at the position. Last season, the Contreras held a .262/.380/.468 line with 15 home runs and four stolen bases. Across a 162-game season, he would have gone deep 29 times.

From 2021 through 2023, the 32-year-old hit at least 20 home runs each season.

Despite the limited playing time, his batted-ball metrics aligned with his previous production, suggesting he could enjoy a career season shifting to first base. Last season, he generated a 4.68 percent hard-hit rate, 11.2 percent barrel rate, and a .365 xwOBA, which were all well above the average marks.

In addition, his elite 12.6 percent walk rate placed him in the 97th percentile, the highest mark of his career.

He is in line to see a career-high in starts, which should set him up for a career season in the batter's box. Draft him with confidence.

Willson Contreras (ADP 80.2 @TheReal_NFC )
Moving to 1B full-time = fewer injuries, more PA's
Slashed .262/.380/.468 in 84G last year (15 HR, 4 SB)
162-game pace: 29 HR 💣
Elite plate discipline -BB rate 97th percentile
Hard contact is still elite
🚀 Primed for a career year! pic.twitter.com/j5qyzfFo7t

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 9, 2025

J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 160
RotoBaller Ranking: 211 (-80.2)

If you want to wait until the mid-rounds to target your catcher, make sure to highlight J.T. Realmuto on your board. Realmuto has been a consensus top-catching option for the better part of his career, but he saw his standard statistics drop this past season.

Through 99 games, Realmuto held a .266/.322/.429 line with 14 home runs and two stolen bases. The 33-year-old underwent meniscus surgery in June, limiting his playing time. While it may seem his production was hindered by this injury, as shown by his low power and stolen base output, during the final two months, Realmuto performed exceptionally well.

During August and September, he posted a strong .279/.338/.490 line with seven long balls and one stolen base. This is a promising sign and could suggest his modest .258/.312/.391 line he held during the first five months was lowered by his injury.

While Realmuto failed to extend his double-digit stolen base streak to four seasons, he still placed in the 79th percent in sprint speed, which could leave the door open for a bounce-back in that category in 2025. He also saw his runs and RBI count drop due to the decrease in playing time.

Realmuto also generated a .268 xBA and a .459 xSLG, suggesting he should be primed to bounce back with a healthy offseason.

With the Phillies lacking a proven No. 2 option behind him, fantasy managers should expect Realmuto to play his typical 130+ games batting in the heart of a potent lineup. He is an excellent value as a top catcher with a high upside for counting stats.

Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees

ADP: 204
RotoBaller Ranking: 212 (-17.3)

If you decide to "punt" the position, Austin Wells is a great target going off as the No. 14 catcher in NFBC drafts. Last season, Wells logged a career-high 119 games and posted a .229/.322/.395 line with 13 long balls. He added 55 RBI and scored 42 runs.

However, down the stretch, Wells became a critical piece in the Yankee lineup and even began to bat in the cleanup spot.

From July 1, Wells posted a .238/.322/.430 line with 10 home runs and 42 RBI. He enjoyed his best month in August when he carried a stellar .325/.391/.545 slash line.

Much of his success was credited to how he hit offspeed pitches in the second half. After generating a poor .218 xSLG against them in June, Wells improved his production dramatically, which was the catalyst for his late-season breakout.

In addition, the 25-year-old showed a strong eye at the plate with an 11.4 percent walk rate, which placed him in the 89th percentile among qualified hitters.

Slotting in as the clear everyday catcher in the Bronx, Wells could be in store for a breakout campaign in 2025.

🚨 Don’t sleep on Austin Wells! 🚨 #RepBX
📈 2H 2024: .241/.333/.412, 9 2B, 7 HR, 35 RBI
⬆️ Pull% +4 pts, BB% +7 pts (compared to 23')
🔒 NYY’s C1 in ‘25 & a steal at 194.7 ADP @TheReal_NFC (No. 14 C)#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/gt5CtECyJh

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 6, 2025

Others to target: Shea Langeliers, Athletics

Fantasy Baseball Catchers to Avoid at ADP

Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros

ADP: 77
RotoBaller Ranking: 80 (-24.1)

After enjoying a breakout season in 2023, Yanier Diaz operated as Houston's top catcher during the 2024 season. The 26-year-old performed quite well, posting a .299/.325/.441 line with 16 home runs and two stolen bases.

Diaz generated an excellent .299 xBA, which suggests he should remain a high-end contributor to that category this upcoming season. He also tallied 84 RBI and 70 runs, which should remain stable batting in the heart of the Astros lineup.

However, going off as the second catcher in NFBC drafts is a hefty price and not worth paying.

Last season, Diaz saw his fly-ball rate drop 11 points (29.6 percent - 18.7 percent) and his ground-ball rate increase by seven points (44.3 percent - 51.2 percent) compared to his 2023 production. This suggests Diaz's power production may continue to drop, making him a mere three-category contributor at a hefty price tag.

I would instead target a power hitter at his ADP like Marcell Ozuna or a high-upside starting pitcher like Michael King. Given his metrics, Diaz could see his power production drop, making it quite difficult for him to live up to his ADP.

FADE Yainer Diaz at ADP 🚨
Elite .299 xBA → Batting average should stay solid ✅
BUT… power decline is real ⬇️FB% dropped 11 pts (29.6% → 18.7%) GB% jumped 7 pts (44.3% → 51.2%)
No. 2 catcher in @TheReal_NFC Too pricey! ❌
💰 Don’t overpay—fade at cost! #FantasyBaseball

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 9, 2025

Logan O'Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels

ADP: 165
RotoBaller Ranking: 157 (-39.4)

Another catcher to avoid is Logan O'Hoppe of the Los Angeles Angels, who is being drafted as the eighth overall catcher on NFBC drafts. After showcasing upside power during his brief 51-game stint in the 2023 season (.500 SLG with 14 HRs), he took a step back in his first full season.

Across 136 contests, O'Hoppe posted a .244/.303/.409 line with 20 long balls and two stolen bases. He held a hefty 29.7 percent strikeout rate and drew walks at a poor 6.3 percent rate.

While his batted ball metrics placed him above the average marks (81st percentile in hard-hit rate, 79th percentile in barrel rate), he could see his playing time drop in 2025.

During the offseason, the Angels signed veteran backstop Travis d'Arnaud to a two-year contract. Last season, he held a .238/.302/.436 line. While O'Hoppe should be expected to operate as the "1A" on the depth chart, d'Arnaud could easily take at-bats away from him if he gets into an early-season slump.

It would be wiser to target Realmuto one round later at his 130.7 ADP, as he is the clear top catcher on his team and has a much safer floor.

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