Starting Pitcher Rankings and Tiers for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Hello, welcome fantasy baseball friends to an early look at the 2023 starting pitcher rankings. Spring training is right around the corner and leagues are going to start ramping up, so now is a great time to dive into what to expect out of the starting pitcher landscape.  

I’ve ranked 75 of the top starters for fantasy purposes and have broken them down into tiers. These tiers will give you a better idea of when to target a certain pitcher. Current ADP has also been included to gauge if you should jump on a pitcher early or wait on one.   

Check out some of our other rankings and work done by the RotoBaller staff. Everyone does a great job here, and I hope you count on RotoBaller for your fantasy news and analysis because we've got every angle covered for you. But, without further ado, let's get into what 2023 has in store for the top 75 hurlers.  

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Tier 1 - Cy Young

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
1	1	Shohei Ohtani	13
2	1	Corbin Burnes	17
3	1	Gerrit Cole	20
4	1	Sandy Alcantara	26
5	1	Shane McClanahan	37
6	1	Justin Verlander	42
7	1	Jacob deGrom	31

My top tier might be a little larger than most but both Verlander and deGrom have proven to be an SP1 repeatedly, even as they age. I’m a little more bullish on McClanahan than most but his 30.3% strikeout rate and 2.82 SIERA point to elite production. Cole had a down year by his standards last season, but his ADP shows most people think he’ll bounce back to elite status, and I’m right there with them. I had to talk myself out of putting Alcantara second, so just know when he finishes that high on player raters.  

 

Tier 2 - A Great Ace

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
8	2	Aaron Nola	41
9	2	Brandon Woodruff	37
10	2	Spencer Strider	33
11	2	Max Scherzer	45
12	2	Carlos Rodon	48
13	2	Julio Urias	52
14	2	Shane Bieber	55

I could be convinced Nola deserves to be in the top tier after his 25.5% K-BB% came in fourth while his 2.58 FIP placed fifth in the league, but he’s been too much of a mixed bag in the past. Hopefully, he can continue his dominance in 2023 and claim a spot in the top tier. Strider is rightfully moving up the boards quickly. All these guys have the potential to finish the year in the top tier, so if you don’t grab one of the first-tier pitchers, don’t get too worried.   

 

Tier 3 - The Almost Ace

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
15	3	Zack Wheeler	54
16	3	Dylan Cease	39
17	3	Alek Manoah	61
18	3	Zac Gallen	71
19	3	Max Fried	67
20	3	Nestor Cortes	111
21	3	Yu Darvish	80

 The outlier here for me is Nestor Cortes, as his ADP is over 70 slots after Dylan Cease. Cease is a talented pitcher, but his 2022 peripherals don’t match his ERA, hinting at some regression this season. He’s still young and has the potential to reach the next tier, but for now, his ADP is too much for me. Nestor projects to have a similar win and ERA total with fewer strikeouts. Wheeler just missed the second tier and Manoah could easily finish in that tier, so there are some great options here.

 

Tier 4 - A Mixed Bag of Goodness

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
22	4	Kevin Gausman	68
23	4	Luis Castillo	67
24	4	Joe Musgrove	83
25	4	Christian Javier	69
26	4	Framber Valdez	80
27	4	Tyler Glasnow	95
28	4	Robbie Ray	98
29	4	Triston McKenzie	85
30	4	Clayton Kershaw	125
31	4	Logan Webb	106
32	4	Nick Lodolo	137

This tier has a little bit of everything. Kershaw is holding onto a top 30 SP slot while youngsters McKenzie and Lodolo try to crack that plateau. Javier and Valdez are separated by 11 spots in ADP, but I see them as close to interchangeable. Javier had the better strikeout stuff, but both had similar ERA and FIP and Valdez pitched the full year. Look for Lodolo to have a breakout year and possibly finish a tier higher than ranked now.  

 

Tier 5 - Young or Sturdy

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
33	5	Blake Snell	130
34	5	George Kirby	113
35	5	Luis Severino	116
36	5	Logan Gilbert	110
37	5	Lucas Giolito	166
38	5	Kyle Wright	112
39	5	Pablo Lopez	171
40	5	Hunter Greene	120
41	5	Lance Lynn	140
42	5	Chris Bassitt	150
43	5	Dustin May	167

There are a few former high-tier pitchers here and there are a few future high-tier pitchers here. High-upside youngsters going earlier than their seasoned counterparts is a common theme in fantasy baseball. Owners want to have a Kirby, Gilbert, Wright, or Greene on their team when they break out, but I’m here to tell you a Severino, Giolito, or Lopez will be just as useful as the younger pitchers. A healthy May will blow by this rank. 

 

Tier 6 - Not Sexy But Good

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
44	6	Freddy Peralta	145
45	6	Luis Garcia
46	6	Joe Ryan	149
47	6	Jesus Luzardo	153
48	6	Jordan Montgomery	167
49	6	Charlie Morton	175
50	6	Tony Gonsolin	155
51	6	Chris Sale	178

Here we start to lose some of the appeal name-wise, but a top 50 pitcher is nothing to scoff at. Everyone needs a pitcher like Montgomery and his mid-3s ERA, even if he doesn’t have the huge strikeout ratio of pitchers in the higher tiers. Gonsolin had a great year from an ERA and win-loss standpoint but didn’t have the overall numbers to back it up. A fall from grace could befall him this season and his ADP shows most owners are expecting one.  

 

Tier 7 - Helpful Yet Uninspiring 

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
52	7	Jeffrey Springs	184
53	7	Kodai Senga
54	7	Drew Rasmussen	183
55	7	Jon Gray	213
56	7	Brady Singer	191
57	7	Lance McCullers Jr.	202
58	7	Patrick Sandoval	212
59	7	Grayson Rodriguez	199
60	7	Sonny Gray	222
61	7	Nathan Eovaldi	278
62	7	Andrew Heaney	234
63	7	Frankie Montas	229
64	7	Jack Flaherty	226
65	7	Reid Detmers	240
66	7	Tyler Mahle	292
67	7	Aaron Ashby	270

This extensive list is not quite the Mr. Irrelevant tier, and this tier has some breakout potential in it, but a lot of the options here are middling. It will be interesting to see how Senga pitches stateside and what Rodriguez can do if given the full year in the majors. A Flaherty bounceback isn’t out of the question and a Detmers leap is also a possibility. There are pitchers here where you know what you’re going to get from them, so that’s always useful, even if they aren’t top talent.  

 

Tier 8 - Mr. Irrelevant

SP Rank	SP Tier	Player Name	ADP
68	8	Alex Cobb	257
69	8	Jose Berrios	249
70	8	Edward Cabrera	245
71	8	Jameson Taillon	272
72	8	Jose Urquidy	264
73	8	Tyler Anderson	237
74	8	Merrill Kelly	227
75	8	Michael Kopech	296

The Mr. Irrelevant tier is full of guys you’ll have to monitor early and often. Spot starts or home/road splits and things of that nature will come into play. I wouldn’t expect one of these starters to jump into the top 30 this year, but they are going to be useful at times. Anderson and Kelly had good 2022 fantasy seasons and it’s possible someone like Taillon or Kopech get into an extended groove, so there are still guys here worth targeting late. 

That's going to do it for the early top 75 starting pitchers for this go around. Good luck to all.

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