RADIO
Justin's fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings and tiers for 2023 drafts. Who should you draft high and whose value has gone lower than expected?
Hello, welcome fantasy baseball friends to an early look at the 2023 starting pitcher rankings. Spring training is right around the corner and leagues are going to start ramping up, so now is a great time to dive into what to expect out of the starting pitcher landscape.
I’ve ranked 75 of the top starters for fantasy purposes and have broken them down into tiers. These tiers will give you a better idea of when to target a certain pitcher. Current ADP has also been included to gauge if you should jump on a pitcher early or wait on one.
Check out some of our other rankings and work done by the RotoBaller staff. Everyone does a great job here, and I hope you count on RotoBaller for your fantasy news and analysis because we've got every angle covered for you. But, without further ado, let's get into what 2023 has in store for the top 75 hurlers.
Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SPRING, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW
Tier 1 - Cy Young
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 1 | 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 13 |
| 2 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 17 |
| 3 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 20 |
| 4 | 1 | Sandy Alcantara | 26 |
| 5 | 1 | Shane McClanahan | 37 |
| 6 | 1 | Justin Verlander | 42 |
| 7 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 31 |
My top tier might be a little larger than most but both Verlander and deGrom have proven to be an SP1 repeatedly, even as they age. I’m a little more bullish on McClanahan than most but his 30.3% strikeout rate and 2.82 SIERA point to elite production. Cole had a down year by his standards last season, but his ADP shows most people think he’ll bounce back to elite status, and I’m right there with them. I had to talk myself out of putting Alcantara second, so just know when he finishes that high on player raters.
Tier 2 - A Great Ace
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 8 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 41 |
| 9 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 37 |
| 10 | 2 | Spencer Strider | 33 |
| 11 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 45 |
| 12 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 48 |
| 13 | 2 | Julio Urias | 52 |
| 14 | 2 | Shane Bieber | 55 |
I could be convinced Nola deserves to be in the top tier after his 25.5% K-BB% came in fourth while his 2.58 FIP placed fifth in the league, but he’s been too much of a mixed bag in the past. Hopefully, he can continue his dominance in 2023 and claim a spot in the top tier. Strider is rightfully moving up the boards quickly. All these guys have the potential to finish the year in the top tier, so if you don’t grab one of the first-tier pitchers, don’t get too worried.
Tier 3 - The Almost Ace
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 15 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 54 |
| 16 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 39 |
| 17 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 61 |
| 18 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 71 |
| 19 | 3 | Max Fried | 67 |
| 20 | 3 | Nestor Cortes | 111 |
| 21 | 3 | Yu Darvish | 80 |
The outlier here for me is Nestor Cortes, as his ADP is over 70 slots after Dylan Cease. Cease is a talented pitcher, but his 2022 peripherals don’t match his ERA, hinting at some regression this season. He’s still young and has the potential to reach the next tier, but for now, his ADP is too much for me. Nestor projects to have a similar win and ERA total with fewer strikeouts. Wheeler just missed the second tier and Manoah could easily finish in that tier, so there are some great options here.
Tier 4 - A Mixed Bag of Goodness
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 22 | 4 | Kevin Gausman | 68 |
| 23 | 4 | Luis Castillo | 67 |
| 24 | 4 | Joe Musgrove | 83 |
| 25 | 4 | Christian Javier | 69 |
| 26 | 4 | Framber Valdez | 80 |
| 27 | 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 95 |
| 28 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 98 |
| 29 | 4 | Triston McKenzie | 85 |
| 30 | 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 125 |
| 31 | 4 | Logan Webb | 106 |
| 32 | 4 | Nick Lodolo | 137 |
This tier has a little bit of everything. Kershaw is holding onto a top 30 SP slot while youngsters McKenzie and Lodolo try to crack that plateau. Javier and Valdez are separated by 11 spots in ADP, but I see them as close to interchangeable. Javier had the better strikeout stuff, but both had similar ERA and FIP and Valdez pitched the full year. Look for Lodolo to have a breakout year and possibly finish a tier higher than ranked now.
Tier 5 - Young or Sturdy
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 33 | 5 | Blake Snell | 130 |
| 34 | 5 | George Kirby | 113 |
| 35 | 5 | Luis Severino | 116 |
| 36 | 5 | Logan Gilbert | 110 |
| 37 | 5 | Lucas Giolito | 166 |
| 38 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 112 |
| 39 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 171 |
| 40 | 5 | Hunter Greene | 120 |
| 41 | 5 | Lance Lynn | 140 |
| 42 | 5 | Chris Bassitt | 150 |
| 43 | 5 | Dustin May | 167 |
There are a few former high-tier pitchers here and there are a few future high-tier pitchers here. High-upside youngsters going earlier than their seasoned counterparts is a common theme in fantasy baseball. Owners want to have a Kirby, Gilbert, Wright, or Greene on their team when they break out, but I’m here to tell you a Severino, Giolito, or Lopez will be just as useful as the younger pitchers. A healthy May will blow by this rank.
Tier 6 - Not Sexy But Good
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 44 | 6 | Freddy Peralta | 145 |
| 45 | 6 | Luis Garcia | |
| 46 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 149 |
| 47 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 153 |
| 48 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 167 |
| 49 | 6 | Charlie Morton | 175 |
| 50 | 6 | Tony Gonsolin | 155 |
| 51 | 6 | Chris Sale | 178 |
Here we start to lose some of the appeal name-wise, but a top 50 pitcher is nothing to scoff at. Everyone needs a pitcher like Montgomery and his mid-3s ERA, even if he doesn’t have the huge strikeout ratio of pitchers in the higher tiers. Gonsolin had a great year from an ERA and win-loss standpoint but didn’t have the overall numbers to back it up. A fall from grace could befall him this season and his ADP shows most owners are expecting one.
Tier 7 - Helpful Yet Uninspiring
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 52 | 7 | Jeffrey Springs | 184 |
| 53 | 7 | Kodai Senga | |
| 54 | 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 183 |
| 55 | 7 | Jon Gray | 213 |
| 56 | 7 | Brady Singer | 191 |
| 57 | 7 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 202 |
| 58 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 212 |
| 59 | 7 | Grayson Rodriguez | 199 |
| 60 | 7 | Sonny Gray | 222 |
| 61 | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 278 |
| 62 | 7 | Andrew Heaney | 234 |
| 63 | 7 | Frankie Montas | 229 |
| 64 | 7 | Jack Flaherty | 226 |
| 65 | 7 | Reid Detmers | 240 |
| 66 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 292 |
| 67 | 7 | Aaron Ashby | 270 |
This extensive list is not quite the Mr. Irrelevant tier, and this tier has some breakout potential in it, but a lot of the options here are middling. It will be interesting to see how Senga pitches stateside and what Rodriguez can do if given the full year in the majors. A Flaherty bounceback isn’t out of the question and a Detmers leap is also a possibility. There are pitchers here where you know what you’re going to get from them, so that’s always useful, even if they aren’t top talent.
Tier 8 - Mr. Irrelevant
| SP Rank | SP Tier | Player Name | ADP |
| 68 | 8 | Alex Cobb | 257 |
| 69 | 8 | Jose Berrios | 249 |
| 70 | 8 | Edward Cabrera | 245 |
| 71 | 8 | Jameson Taillon | 272 |
| 72 | 8 | Jose Urquidy | 264 |
| 73 | 8 | Tyler Anderson | 237 |
| 74 | 8 | Merrill Kelly | 227 |
| 75 | 8 | Michael Kopech | 296 |
The Mr. Irrelevant tier is full of guys you’ll have to monitor early and often. Spot starts or home/road splits and things of that nature will come into play. I wouldn’t expect one of these starters to jump into the top 30 this year, but they are going to be useful at times. Anderson and Kelly had good 2022 fantasy seasons and it’s possible someone like Taillon or Kopech get into an extended groove, so there are still guys here worth targeting late.
That's going to do it for the early top 75 starting pitchers for this go around. Good luck to all.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
